Welcome to a special midseason edition of the Weekly NBA DFS Lineup Report for DraftKings. I want to take a look at the previous reports and see if there’s anything that really sticks out or anything we can use in the second half of the NBA season on DraftKings to help build a better NBA DFS Lineup.
All of the information presented below comes via Fantasy Cruncher Pro and their Lineup Study and Rewind features. This is a must-have tool if you’re being serious about DFS. You’ll have the ability to go back through years worth of data and analyze great players, or like I’ll be doing specific contests. I really can’t recommend FC Pro enough.
This is one of the trends that’s the most clear and the most consistent. Out of the 63 lineups that I’ve analyzed the salary from the winning lineup has been $49,800 or more 53 times (84.1%).
The image above reflects the 10 times that a salary below $49,800 took down the top spot. I don’t see anything that we can use to our benefit. The seven-game slate shows up four out of 10 times but I think that’s just a coincidence. If anyone has a theory as to why the seven-game slates use less salary more often than the other slates feel free to drop that on me.
So there is a decision to be made based on this information. Do you want to cast a wide net (Using a minimum salary of $49,600) or do you want to focus your net where the majority of the fish are (Using a minimum salary of $49,800)?
$49,400 – One time (1.6%)
$49,600 – Four times (6.3%)
$49,700 – Five times (7.9%)
$49,800 – Seven times (11.1%)
$49,900 – 15 times (23.8%)
$50,000 – 31 times (49.2%)
I’m not here to tell you how to build your lineup, ALTHOUGH using $49,900 as a minimum salary covers 73% of the previous outcomes.
This is one of the most attention-capturing results of doing the NBA DFS Lineup Report for DraftKings: 62 out of 63 lineups featured at least two teammates. I have no idea as to why that happens so often.
No team stack – One time (1.6%)
Two teammates – 43 times (68.3%)
Three teammates – 17 times (27%)
Four teammates – Two times (3.2%)
Now to take the teammate stacking one step further. The winning lineup used multiple team stacks 36 times (57.1%), and just one team stack 26 times (41.3%).
A “2 Stack” is two players from the same team. A “2-2 Stack” would be two players from a team and two more players from another team.
Game stacking is using a player and one of their opponents in the same lineup. Forgive me if you already know this but I’m writing for all levels of DFS players.
A 1-1 stack means one player and one opponent in the same lineup. A 2-1 stack would be two teammates and an opponent in the same lineup. A 1-1,1-1 stack is a player and opponent from one game and then a player and opponent from another game in the same lineup. Ok everyone is up to speed now.
So what are we supposed to do with this information? Well, if you’re using Fantasy Cruncher you can go to Advanced Options>General Settings and set limits for how many players from a team or game can appear in your lineups.
If you’re playing the percentages then something like three players max from a team, and three players max from a game would be the settings to use for your NBA DFS Lineup. If you really wanted to tighten things up you could use two players max from each team and three players max from a game. Again it’s about how wide of a net you want to cast.
NBA projections across the industry are generally pretty good because the NBA is the most predictable/consistent sport. With that said, the Team Rise or Fall NBA projections and ratings have been on fire this season.
One aspect of the projections I’ve kept an eye on for my lineups is the number of players projected for 40+ fantasy points in the winning lineups.
Here’s the breakdown out of 63 lineups:
Three players projected for 40+ fantasy points: 27 times (42.9%)
Two players projected for 40+ fantasy points: 23 times (36.5%)
One player projected for 40+ fantasy points: Eight times (12.7%)
Four players projected for 40+ fantasy points: Four times (6.3%)
No players projected for 40+ fantasy points: One time (1.6%)
So 79% of the time the winning lineup used at least two players projected for 40+ DraftKings points. That sounds like a group you could build in Fantasy Cruncher. (Advanced Options – Groups, Use at least two and then select all of the players with a 40 point projection.)
On the other end of the projection scale we have players that were projected for less than 20 fantasy points showing up in the winning lineup. I’ve analyzed 63 different contests which means I’ve looked at 504 players. Of the 504 players there were 37 players (7.3%) projected for less than 20 DK points. Several of the players would reach the 20 point mark if I rounded up but I’m using the projections as they are to avoid any confusion.
So should you target a player projected for less than 20 fantasy points to use in your lineup every slate? The short answer is no. The more accurate answer is that you need to monitor the news of the day and catch a player that’s starting due to a late scratch/injury news. And it’s not that you need the player to score 40 points. It’s usually the salary savings they provide that allows us to squeeze in another upper tier player.
I have to mention that there’s no mold or set of rules I can give you that will lead to you making millions of dollars playing NBA DFS on DraftKings. The D in DFS is for daily and that’s how you should approach a slate. You’re looking for the answers for that particular day.
The information I’ve included here today can help you on a day-to-day basis but you still have to plug in the puzzle pieces and make decisions based on your process. Whether that’s sitting on the toilet and playing player roulette or diving into the Team Rise or Fall NBA Projections Study Hub is up to you. Just keep in mind to:
A) Use most of the $50,000 salary
B) Look for a pair of teammates that have a decent projection or are in a good matchup
C) Consider using an opponent of the players from “B”
D) Include a few players projected for 40+ fantasy points in your lineup
E) Watch out for the latest injury news and spot starts
F) Play responsibly
G) Have fun
That’s all from me for now. I’ll type to you soon. Until then, LET’S GET THIS MONEY!
See ya in Discord,