Welcome to a special midseason edition of the Weekly NBA DFS Lineup Report for FanDuel. I want to take a look at the previous reports and see if there’s anything that really sticks out or anything we can use in the second half of the NBA season on FanDue to help build a better NBA DFS Lineup.
All of the information presented below comes via Fantasy Cruncher Pro and their Lineup Study and Rewind features. This is a must-have tool if you’re being serious about DFS. You’ll have the ability to go back through years worth of data and analyze great players, or like I’ll be doing specific contests. I really can’t recommend FC Pro enough.
This is one of the trends that’s the most clear and the most consistent. Out of the 45 lineups that I’ve analyzed the salary from the winning lineup has been $59,800 or more 34 times (75.6%).
The image above reflects the 11 times (24.4%) that a salary below $59,800 took down the top spot. The lower salaries showed up in a variety of slate sizes and I don’t see anything that I can build on based on the info above.
Let’s take a look at how the $59,800-$60,000 range split up the other 76%:
$59,100 – One time (2.2%)
$59,200 – Two times (4.4%)
$59,300 – One time (2.2%)
$59,400 – One time (2.2%)
$59,500 – One time (2.2%)
$59,600 – Four times (8.9%)
$59,700 – One time (2.2%)
$59,800 – Nine times (20%)
$59,900 – Six times (13.3%)
$60,000 – 19 times (42.2%)
Based on what we see here I think it’s best to use a minimum salary of $59,800. You can use the entire salary every time if you don’t mind taking on more risk. But like we saw with in the NBA DFS Lineup Weekly GPP Report for DraftKings using all of the allotted salary pays off more than any other salary usage.
This is one of the most interesting results from writiing the NBA DFS Lineup Report for FanDuel: 42 of 45 lineups featured at least two teammates. I don’t have an explanation for this other than if a team goes off, multiple guys from that team are probably going off.
No team stack – Three times (6.7%)
Two teammates – 27 times (60%)
Three teammates – 13 times (28.9%)
Four teammates – Two times (4.4%)
Now to take the teammate stacking one step further. The winning lineup used multiple team stacks 31 times (68.9%), and just one team stack 11 times (24.4%).
A “2 Stack” is two players from the same team. A “2-2 Stack” would be two players from a team and two more players from another team. A “2-2-2 Stack” is two players from three different teams.
Some combination of a “2 stack” (2, 2-2, or 2-2-2) is responsible for 27 of the 45 lineups (60%). Let’s take a look at the game stacks.
Game stacking is using a player and one of their opponents in the same lineup. Forgive me if you already know this but I’m writing for all levels of DFS players.
A “1-1 stack” means one player and one opponent in the same lineup. A “2-1 stack” would be two teammates and an opponent in the same lineup. A “1-1,1-1” stack is a player and opponent from one game and then a player and opponent from another game in the same lineup. Ok everyone is up to speed now.
The game stack data is a lot noisier on FanDuel compared to what we saw on DraftKings. The most frequent game stack types are the “1-1”, “2-1”, “2-1 & 1-1”, “1-1 & 1-1” or no stack at all. But none of the game stack types reach 15% in frequency (based on the 45 contest sample) so I wouldn’t put too much emphasis there.
What I do see is that game stack types involving more than three players from the same game account for 35.2% of all game stacks. On the flipside this means that game stacks with at most three players account for 64.8% of all game stacks. Here’s how we can use that information.
If you’re using Fantasy Cruncher you can go to Advanced Options>General Settings and set limits for how many players from a team or game can appear in your lineups.
If you’re using the information above you would want two players max from a team (60%), and three players max from a game (64.8%). I’m not saying to ignore the 40% of lineups that use more than two players from the same team. There will be days when you want three players from the same team. But for the majority of the time limiting your lineup to two teammates is the best play.
NBA projections across the industry are generally pretty good because the NBA is the most predictable/consistent sport. With that said, the Team Rise or Fall NBA projections and ratings have been on fire this season.
One aspect of the projections I’ve kept an eye on for my lineups is the number of players projected for 40+ fantasy points in the winning lineups.
Here’s the breakdown out of 45 lineups:
Two players projected for 40+ fantasy points: 22 times (48.9%)
Three players projected for 40+ fantasy points: 15 times (33.3%)
One player projected for 40+ fantasy points: Four times (8.9%)
Four players projected for 40+ fantasy points: Four times (8.9%)
We can see that 82% of the time the winning NBA DFS lineup used two or three players projected for 40+ FanDuel points. That number bumps up to 91% if we include the four times that four players projected for 40+ FD points showed up in the winning lineup.
That sounds like a group you could build in Fantasy Cruncher. (Advanced Options – Groups, Use at least two and then select all of the players with a 40 point projection.)
What about the less productive players? Don’t you have love for them? I do!
I’ve analyzed 45 different contests which means I’ve looked at 405 players. Of the 405 players there were 29 players (7.2%) projected for less than 20 FanDuel points. Several of the players would reach the 20 point mark if I rounded up but I’m using the projections as they are to avoid any confusion.
So should you target a player projected for less than 20 fantasy points to use in your lineup every slate? The short answer is no.
The more accurate answer is that you need to monitor the news of the day and catch a player that’s starting due to a late scratch/injury news. And it’s not that you need the player to score 40 points. It’s usually the salary savings they provide that allows us to squeeze in another upper tier player.
I have to mention that there’s no mold or set of rules I can give you that will lead to you making millions of dollars playing NBA DFS on FanDuel. The D in DFS is for daily and that’s how you should approach a slate. We’re looking to crack the code for that particular day, and build the best NBA DFS lineup for the slate.
The information I’ve included here can help you on a day-to-day basis but you still have to plug in the puzzle pieces and make decisions based on your process. Whether that’s sitting on the toilet and playing player roulette or diving into the Team Rise or Fall NBA Projections Study Hub is up to you. Just keep in mind to:
A) Use most of the $60,000 salary
B) Look for a pair of teammates that have a decent projection or are in a good matchup
C) Consider using an opponent of the players from “B”
D) Include a few players projected for 40+ fantasy points in your lineup
E) Watch out for the latest injury news and spot starts
F) Play responsibly
G) Have fun
That’s all from me for now. I’ll type to you soon. Until then, LET’S GET THIS MONEY!
See ya in Discord,
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