NFL Best Ball Spotlight: Kyle Pitts will NOT breakout in 2023
Kyle Pitts in NFL Best Ball
Kyle Pitts had a solid sophomore season for the Atlanta Falcons, receiving 59 targets in just 10 games. He has become a hot commodity in fantasy football drafts, with his ability to be a top receiving Tight End and upside to make plays vertically down the field. However, the Falcons are undergoing a major transition this offseason with Desmond Ridder, who posted a Touchdown% of 1.7% in just 4 games in 2022, slated to be the starting Quarterback in 2023. This could have a significant impact on Pitts’ production in 2023.
The Falcons attempted just 415 passes in 2022 which was the second-fewest in the NFL. The team may look to rely heavily on the run game with the addition of Bijan Robinson and Ridder’s ability as a dual-threat Quarterback.
If the passing volume does not increase, this would obviously limit Pitts’ opportunities in the passing game, especially if the Falcons struggle to establish a consistent passing attack. Additionally, Pitts has scored only 3 touchdowns through his first 27 games, which is a bit concerning for a player with his talent and potential. However, he did post an ADOT of 13.8, indicating that he was utilized in the vertical passing game.
Despite these concerns, there is reason for optimism when it comes to Pitts’ future prospects. He has shown flashes of brilliance in his limited opportunities, and his talent is undeniable. If the Falcons can find a way to utilize him effectively in their offense, he has the potential to be one of the most productive tight ends in the league. He is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses, with his size, speed, and athleticism. It should also be noted that the addition of Jonnu Smith could limit Pitts’ exposure as a run blocker which would add to his opportunities to line up out wide as a receiver.
Kyle Pitts is a high-risk, high-reward pick in fantasy football drafts. He has tremendous upside, but his production will depend heavily on the Falcons’ ability to establish a consistent passing attack and get him the ball in space. If Desmond Ridder develops into a league-average passer and Pitts becomes a more consistent scoring threat, he has the potential to be a top-tier fantasy tight end.
All in all, it feels like Pitts has a low probability of being on the level of a Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews in the Falcons’ offense. The passing volume just does not seem to be there in the run-heavy scheme that they run. I’d say he’s worth a shot if you’re mass-entering Best Ball tournaments given his upside. If you’re drafting one team, I’d rather take my chances on someone lower in ADP like Dalton Kincaid or Greg Dulcich.