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NFL DFS Lineup Study: Week 11


It’s time to do a little NFL DFS Lineup Study for Week 11. I’ll take a look at the first place lineups for the two Milly Makers on DraftKings and the $300k to first contest on FanDuel. I’ll go ahead and spoil part of the post because Week 11 was nuts. We’ve established through four years of NFL DFS Lineup Study that quarterbacks from the Top 5 for implied game total on the slate win the Milly Maker 76% of the time. It’s really that easy. Unless…

Unless you run into a slate like Week 11. The tried and true trend went 0-3 in the big contests in Week 11. There’s reasonable explanations for what happened and I’ll get to that below.

If you find yourself using the tools but still unable to put together a decent showing then go ahead and reach out to our coaches. Use everything that we have to offer and you should see improvement in your play. I say this because it’s worked for me since the launch of the site. We can’t win every time we play but we can definitely put ourselves in the best position to be successful. So let’s get to it!

The information below comes via Fantasy Cruncher. Thanks Fantasy Cruncher! Their Lineup Study feature allows you to look back through years of contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Lineup Rewind feature lets you practice different lineup building strategies without burning through your bankroll with trial and error. The site provides these services for the NFL and nearly all the other sports that DK and FD offer.

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NFL DFS Lineup DraftKings Milly Maker Week 11 Winner

Here’s the winning lineup for the $20 Milly Maker:

Winning DraftKings Milly Maker Advice for NFL DFS Lineups

Jackson205 picked up an easy million bucks with a Cam Newton + Tommy Tremble stack and a run back of Terry McLaurin. The QB+TE+OPP WR stack strikes again.

The Carolina Panther – Washington Football Team game wasn’t in the Top 5 for implied game totals on the slate. If something happens 76% of the time that means there’s still 24% of the time when it doesn’t happen and Week 11 was part of that 24%. What made bucking the trend make sense? Look at Cam’s price. Hell, look at the whole game stack. If you can get your stack for less than 15k (30% of the salary) then you can slam in players like Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, and D’Andre Swift

Speaking of Jonathan Taylor: No Taylor, No Cash. There are a couple of themes that you will see from all three winners this week. They all spent down at quarterback and they all had Mr. Taylor. And yes, if you ball out like that I’m calling you Mister. Taylor’s monster game allowed Jackson205 to absorb duds from Miles Sanders and Tommy Tremble. The two of them combined for 7.5k in salary and 13.9 DK points.

Ownership was a non-factor for this lineup. Cam Newton carried the highest ownership at 17.2% and was the only player in the lineup with ownership above 10%.

NFL DFS Lineup DraftKings Milly Maker Week 11 Winner

Here’s the winning lineup for the $4,444 Milly Maker:

NFL DFS Lineups $4444 Milly Maker Winning Advice and Tips

Oxenduck took down the big baller tourney with a naked Tyler Huntley and his 4.1k salary. You can see how much more conservative the game play is at the higher price points. The $4,444 winner scored 45.8 fewer DraftKings points than the $20 Milly winner.

After Huntley, we see Oxenduck ate the black licorice flavored chalk in the form of Jeff Wilson. OD was bailed out by the monster game from Mr. Jonathan Taylor, and some help from Davante Adams. It also didn’t hurt that 50.6% of the field ate that same nasty chalk.

This sounds weird coming from a guy that’s never won a million bucks but there’s not much too this lineup. A cheap quarterback surrounded by mid and high priced players. Anybody reading this could’ve built this exact lineup. It wouldn’t have finished as highly in the tournaments with a lower price point but you would’ve cashed.

Check out this huge win from Team Rise or Fall coach SCrosby12:

Team Rise or Fall DFS Winning Content

NFL DFS Lineup Study for the Week 11 FanDuel $1.75M NFL Sunday Million ($300K to 1st)

Let’s take a quick look at how things played out on FanDuel

FanDuel NFL Sunday Million NFL DFS Lineup Advice and Tips

First off, congrats to player Ramazen for taking down the top spot. Secondly, you all see how Week 11 played out. Get a cheap quarterback, Joe Flacco in this case, play a less than 10% owned Mr. Jonathan Taylor when he has a career day, play all of the other players you want, and BOOM! Big money.

The lineup construction is what I would call “Old School.” There’s no correlation in any part of the lineup. It’s just nine positions and vibes.

What we tend to see these days is at least a quarterback and a pass catching teammate. Hindsight is usually 20/20 (I say usually because it’s possible to look back on something and still be wrong.) but stacking Elijah Moore with Flacco seems like a good call if you’re going that route. Ramazen won the $300,000 either way but it is something to keep in mind for future tournaments.

The last note from Week 11 is that all of the winners used a running back in the flex position. How to use the flex position depends on the slate but it is unique to see every winner had the same build in that regard.

That’s all for me. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @eagsixcards. Good luck to everyone this weekend!

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