NFL DFS Lineup Study: Week 3
Welcome back to another edition of the NFL DFS Lineup Study from Team Rise or Fall. We’re three weeks into the 2021 season and it’s been up and down for me. Bad week, good week, so so week, and ___. I’m hoping the __ is “Monster week.” My average over the last three seasons has been one “Monster Week” per season. My goal for 2021 is three monster weeks and although I haven’t done it yet, I think I’m getting close.
The great thing about the NFL is the main slate is once per week. That gives us plenty of time to research and work on our strategy for the week. TROF puts in A LOT of work to make your process as easy as possible. Take advantage of that!
If you find yourself using the tools but still unable to put together a decent showing then go ahead and reach out to our coaches. Use everything that we have to offer and you should see improvement in your play. I say this because it’s worked for me since the launch of the site. We can’t win every time we play but we can definitely put ourselves in the best position to be successful. So let’s get to it!
The information below comes via Fantasy Cruncher. Thanks Fantasy Cruncher! Their Lineup Study feature allows you to look back through years of contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Lineup Rewind feature lets you practice different lineup building strategies without burning through your bankroll with trial and error. The site provides these services for the NFL and nearly all the other sports that DK and FD offer.
NFL DFS Lineup Milly Maker Week 3 Winner
Here’s the winning lineup for the $20 Milly Maker:
By now we’re all familiar with the trend that sees 76% of Milly Maker winning quarterbacks coming from games within the Top 5 for implied game total on the slate. That means 24 % of the time the winning QB falls outside of that range and Week 3 was part of that. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills were tied for 9th in implied game total.
If you’re keeping track that’s four out of five Milly Maker contests (80%) where the winning quarterback came from a game within the Top 5 for implied total. That mark will move five out of six when we get a little further into this post.
Wmm70116 went with a QB + 2 WR + OPP TE stack to win that life changing money. They also used another game stack of RB + WR + OPP WR with Alexander Mattison + Justin Jefferson + DK Metcalf. The Minnesota – Seattle game had the 2nd highest implied game total on the slate so although Wmm70116 used a main stack outside of the Top 5, they still made sure to get plenty of exposure to a game with a high total.
There are three players with a pOwn (projected ownership) above 10% and that’s how it played out with the actual ownership. The only real chalk is the Cardinals DST, which we’re probably going to see the team playing the Jacksonville Jaguars leading the way most weeks for the remainder of the season.
DraftKings had a second Week 3 Milly Maker for the high rollers. Let’s take a look at what worked for that tournament.
Here’s the winning lineup for the $555 Milly Maker:
Props to LordMattyIce for taking down the $555 Milly Maker with a QB + WR + TE + OPP WR stack from the game with the highest implied total on the slate. As I mentioned above that’s now five out of six Milly Maker contests where the winning QB has come from a game within the Top 5 in implied total. What’s the next level after trend? It’s not a guarantee but I feel like we’re moving into stronger than a trend territory.
It’s cool to look at the differences between the $20 Milly Maker and the $555 Milly Maker such as ownership. Granted, there are only 6,027 entries in the $555 contest so the ownership should look a little different but it also shows that the folks we consider sharks or whales were all on players from games with high implied totals. The $20 Milly Maker lineup had an ownership total of 72.3%. The $555 more than doubled that with 164.9%.
Both Milly winners used a quarterback with two pass catchers and an opposing wide receiver. That’s the more traditional build from the last couple of seasons but it’s the first time it’s won this year.
NFL DFS Lineup Study for the Week 3 FanDuel Milly Maker
Let’s take a quick look at how things played out on FanDuel in their Milly Maker contest.
Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler + Mike Williams + Travis Kelce = QB + RB + WR + OPP TE. Not quite a QB and two pass catchers stack but Ekeler did have six receptions for 52 yards (8.2 FD points) so he’s a legit receiving option and not a back that catches a few check downs.
After looking at the relatively lower owned players in the main DK Milly Maker we see the FD Milly Maker rocking two players over 30% and two players close to 20%.
All of the Milly Maker winners used Alexander Mattison and the Arizona Cardinals DST. Sometimes the best plays and best values work out across the board. We’ve also seen plenty of times where fading the “Must play player of the week” works out for us. Knowing when to do what is the tough part and why we love this game.
That’s all for me. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @eagsixcards. Good luck to everyone this weekend!