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NFL DFS Lineup Study: Week 4

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NFL DFS Lineup Study Week 2 Milly Maker Review

Welcome back to another edition of the NFL DFS Lineup Study from Team Rise or Fall. We’ve cleared four weeks of the 2021 season and if you’ve been following this series for the last year or so you know this is where I would do a first quarter wrap up. Well, we have 17 weeks now so I’m going to do three five-week reviews this season.

I mentioned in last week’s review that I thought I was going to have a monster week. Or I was hoping to have a monster week. Either way, there was no monster week. I was looking amazing when the early games ended, but by the end of the afternoon I had won some money on DraftKings and lost a little on FanDuel. Nothing to brag or complain about in either direction.

The great thing about the NFL is the main slate is once per week. That gives us plenty of time to research and work on our strategy for the week. TROF puts in A LOT of work to make your process as easy as possible. Take advantage of that!

If you find yourself using the tools but still unable to put together a decent showing then go ahead and reach out to our coaches. Use everything that we have to offer and you should see improvement in your play. I say this because it’s worked for me since the launch of the site. We can’t win every time we play but we can definitely put ourselves in the best position to be successful. So let’s get to it!

The information below comes via Fantasy Cruncher. Thanks Fantasy Cruncher! Their Lineup Study feature allows you to look back through years of contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Lineup Rewind feature lets you practice different lineup building strategies without burning through your bankroll with trial and error. The site provides these services for the NFL and nearly all the other sports that DK and FD offer.

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NFL DFS Lineup Milly Maker Week 4 Winner

Here’s the winning lineup for the $20 Milly Maker:

DK NFL Lineup Study Milly Maker Week 4

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys whooped up on the Carolina Panthers in a game with a 50 point implied total. At this point in the series we’ve now seen six out of seven Milly Maker winning lineups feature a quarterback from the top 5 for implied total on the slate. The streak gets a little greasy when we look at the next lineup so more on that in sec.

JZinser used a QB + TEĀ  + OPP WR stack to secure the top spot. I went with some Dak stacks as well but I used two teammates with Prescott instead of one. I have a lot of Dak + Amari Cooper + Schultz + DJ Moore which did ok but not well enough to win anything close to a million bucks.

There were three players with a projected ownership of 10% or more. That ended up playing out the same way in the actual tournament so once again not much chalk in the winning lineup.

DraftKings had a second Week 4 Milly Maker for the high rollers at $4,444. Let’s take a look at what worked for that tournament.

NFL DFS Lineup Milly Maker Week 4 Winner

DK NFL Lineup Study Week 4 $4,444 Milly Maker

Oxenduck took down the big baller tourney with a QB + 2 WR stack. The Atlanta Falcons – Washington Football Team had an implied game total of 48 points. At this point it comes down to how you count the “Top 5” implied game totals. The Top 5 game totals were 54.5 (2 games) 53, 52, 50, and 48. If you count the two games with a 54.5 implied total separately then Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team in a game with a 48 point total don’t make the cut. The way I count it is the the Top 5 totals period so they do make the cut for me. That’s seven out of eight contests (87.5%) on the season for DraftKings!

The winning lineup didn’t feature an opposing player in the stack. There was a running back/wide receiver mini game stack with Derrick Henry and Corey Davis, a strategy that was more popular last season than so far this season.

Ownership was a little different at the higher price point. There were three players with a projected ownership of 10% or more like in the $20 contest, but the actual ownership saw five players at 10% or more and two of those being over 20%. The contest featured 767 entries with a 23 entry limit. That’s going to condense ownership for sure.

Running back David Montgomery and tight end Dalton Schultz made appearances in both the $20 and $4,444 contests and carried similar ownership rates. If you used the Team Rise or Fall tools for Week 4 you saw both of these guys POPPING like crazy.

 

NFL DFS Lineup Study for the Week 4 FanDuel Milly Maker

Let’s take a quick look at how things played out on FanDuel in their Milly Maker contest.

FD NFL Lineup Study Milly Maker Winner for Week 4

Slamceo went with a Mahomes + Hill stack and ran it back with Dallas Goedert at the tight end position. There was no Dwight Schultz or David Montgomery in the winning lineup. That once again shows that DFS isn’t a one size fits all game. If you’re not looking at pricing and leverage on every site you play with I gotta say you’re doing it wrong. That’s where you’re going to find your edges in games with margins that seem to shrink every season.

There were six players with ownership of 10% or more but no player that was owned more than 20%. Nothing really to note there. It’s not chalky but it’s really close to chalky. Maybe chalk-lite?

I’ll dive into what’s been working the first five weeks of the 2021 NFL season FanDuel next week. Make sure you check out that post and ALL of the NFL content TROF has to offer.

That’s all for me. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @eagsixcards. Good luck to everyone this weekend!

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