Welcome back to another edition of the NFL DFS Lineup Study from Team Rise or Fall. We’ve got five weeks in the books and I know I promised a first third of the season NFL DFS Milly Maker report and you will get it.. On Friday night/Saturday morning depending on where you live. I promise you it’s going to be worth the wait.
The great thing about the NFL is the main slate is once per week. That gives us plenty of time to research and work on our strategy for the week. TROF puts in A LOT of work to make your process as easy as possible. Take advantage of that!
If you find yourself using the tools but still unable to put together a decent showing then go ahead and reach out to our coaches. Use everything that we have to offer and you should see improvement in your play. I say this because it’s worked for me since the launch of the site. We can’t win every time we play but we can definitely put ourselves in the best position to be successful. So let’s get to it!
The information below comes via Fantasy Cruncher. Thanks Fantasy Cruncher! Their Lineup Study feature allows you to look back through years of contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Lineup Rewind feature lets you practice different lineup building strategies without burning through your bankroll with trial and error. The site provides these services for the NFL and nearly all the other sports that DK and FD offer.
Here’s the winning lineup for the $20 Milly Maker:
By now everyone that follows this series is aware of the trend that quarterbacks within the Top 5 for implied game totals win the Milly Maker 76% of the time. The 2021 season has seen that trend hit at an 87.5% clip through the first four weeks of the season. Well, time to pour one out for the trend this week. A Tom Brady – Bucs stack took down both Milly Makers on DraftKings in Week 5. The Tampa-Miami game fell just outside of the Top 5 for implied game total but the rules are the rules. For the record the trend has hit in seven of 10 Milly Makers this season for a 70% mark.
Nkoerner25 used a QB + 2 WR stack, and DID NOT run it back with an opposing player from the Miami Dolphins. That’s been a trend through the first five weeks and a change from last season. I’ll dig into stack types later this week.
There were three players projected to be owned 10% or more (With two of those being projected for 20%+ ownership). When the games kicked off there ended up being one player at 35%, one player at 24%, and two players in the 11% to 15% range. The late Dalvin Cook news made Alexander Mattison a lock in all formats so eating the chalk there made sense. This is one of the chalkier lineups we’ve seen in the $20 Milly Maker and it’s not all that chalky. Ownership is important for leverage but it seems the average player only looks at “Oh this guy is popular. I’m fading him.” That’s not the right mindset.
DraftKings had a second Week 4 Milly Maker for the high rollers at $4,444. Let’s take a look at what worked for that tournament.
Props to ChipotleAddict for taking down the million dollar prize. There’s nothing I love more than seeing the little guy overcome all odds to take down a bunch of Goliaths.
Chipotle went with a QB+RB+WR+OPP TE to take down the top spot. Interesting to see that at the higher price point the winner DID run the lineup back with an opposing player. This lineup scored 25 fewer points than the $20 Milly winner so keep that in mind before rushing to copy the Pros.
There’s also a Davante Adams – JaMarr Chase mini stack, which we haven’t seen a lot of this season. So overall, six of the nine players came from two games. The $20 Milly lineup had five players from two games as the winner there used Alexander Mattison and the Vikings defense.
The three constants between the two Milly Maker winning lineups were Mattison, AB, and Davante Adams. There’s nothing wrong with using the popular plays as long as the rest of your build is solid.
Let’s take a quick look at how things played out on FanDuel in their Milly Maker contest.
Things got back to normal over on FanDuel as captain_insaino started their build with Justin Herbert, a quarterback from within the Top 5 games for implied total on the slate. The lineup build is a combination of the two DraftKings winning lineups. There’s a QB+RB+WR stack but there’s no opposing player in the run back.
Interesting to see that Mattison didn’t make it to the top lineup on FanDuel. He had a $6.5k price tag on FD so I’m sure that had something to do with it but still. I thought we’d see him in all three lineups.
As far as ownership there were only three players (four if you round up) with ownership at 10%+. Adams and Brown were the plays of the weekend across the industry. Were you on them last week? I know the TROF tools were. It’s just a matter of slamming the puzzle pieces together and I feel like I’m getting closer. How about you?
That’s all for me. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @eagsixcards. Good luck to everyone this weekend!