NFL DFS Lineup Study: Week 7
That’s seven weeks in the books for the 2021 NFL season, so it’s time for another NFL DFS Lineup Study session. If you missed last week go check out our Six Week NFL DFS Lineup Study to see how the winning Milly Maker lineups are trending. Today’s post will only focus on Week 7. There was no high dollar Milly Maker on DraftKings in Week 7 so we’ll just take a look at the $20 Milly Maker for DK and the $300,000 to first contest on FanDuel.
If you find yourself using the tools but still unable to put together a decent showing then go ahead and reach out to our coaches. Use everything that we have to offer and you should see improvement in your play. I say this because it’s worked for me since the launch of the site. We can’t win every time we play but we can definitely put ourselves in the best position to be successful. So let’s get to it!
The information below comes via Fantasy Cruncher. Thanks Fantasy Cruncher! Their Lineup Study feature allows you to look back through years of contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Lineup Rewind feature lets you practice different lineup building strategies without burning through your bankroll with trial and error. The site provides these services for the NFL and nearly all the other sports that DK and FD offer.
Check out this huge win from Team Rise or Fall Member Matt A:
NFL DFS Lineup DraftKings Milly Maker Week 7 Winner
Here’s the winning lineup for the $20 Milly Maker:
The most consistent trend in Milly Maker and NFL DFS Lineup Study history is that the winning quarterback falls within the Top 5 for implied game total on the slate. We’ve found that the winning quarterback comes from one of those games over 75% of the time. This week was no different with Matthew Stafford and the Rams sporting a 50.5 implied game total (Second highest on the slate) in their tilt against the Detroit Lions.
Meaganjoy took home a million bucks with a QB+2 WR+Opposing RB stack. Our Six Week review showed that an opposing player was included in the winning stack just twice in six weeks. We can bump that up to three times in seven weeks. Maybe a trend that’s starting to heat up after a slow start to the season?
As far as ownership Matthew Stafford was extremely popular at quarterback with 16.7% drafted rate. There were only 10 games on the slate so that skews things somewhat but still high ownership for a QB. Chris Godwin and Cooper Kupp both came in at over 20% ownership and were worth the eating of the chalk. Damien Harris smashed and could’ve had a monster game if he was used for New England’s two late goal line scores. A real solid move in this lineup was moving to Foster Moreau with the news of Darren Waller being out. That allowed for 10k to be spent on Moreau, Van Jefferson, and the Tampa DST while leaving an average of $6.7k per player for the six remaining roster slots.
Check out this huge win from Team Rise or Fall coach Dabbingpuggle:
NFL DFS Lineup Study for the Week 7 FanDuel $1.8M NFL Sunday Million ($300K to 1st)
Let’s take a quick look at how things played out on FanDuel
Billys69 went with a Joe Burrow stack to take home $300k. It was really a Cincinnati Bengals onslaught stack with Burrow+Mixon+Chase+Uzomah. There wasn’t great production from Mixon or the second tight end in Hunter Henry, but all of the puzzle pieces fit together and that’s what we’re trying to do.
Cooper Kupp and the Bucs defense were the chalkiest parts of this lineup although Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Evans, and Damien Harris all were drafted more than 10%. There was no opposing player used and no mini stacks.
We’ve seen this situation a few times before but does Joe Burrow qualify as a quarterback in the Top 5 for implied total on the slate? Let’s see:
You can see that Burrow falls into the 4th group of implied totals so he’s in the top five that way. If you’re counting down the implied totals you’ll run into a logjam for #5 with three games tied at 47.5. Either way it looks like Burrow makes the cut.
Now let’s imagine we’re looking at this list before lock (Keep in mind it was a 10 game slate) and there’s 16 quarterbacks that fall within the Top 5 for implied total. Should I run a stack with all of them? Hell no. On the flipside just rostering a “sure thing” like Patrick Mahomes last week doesn’t work either. I personally would roster Mahomes in that situation every time. But am I using Jared Goff just because he’s supposed to be in a high scoring game? No. Did I like a rookie QB taking on the Bucs defense? Nope. Use your process to eliminate the quarterbacks you don’t want to use but IN MY OPINION there’s no way you should try to have a piece of every possibility. It spreads your lineups too thin. I’d rather have a lot of chances with a few guys so when I’m right, I really benefit. If I get lucky and have one lineup do well in the “shotgun” approach I can easily end up still losing money because I had Zach Wilson lineups “just in case.”
That’s all for me. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @eagsixcards. Good luck to everyone this weekend!