NFL DFS Lineup Study: Week 9
We’ve reached the halfway point in our NFL DFS Lineup Study series for the 2021 NFL season. Hopefully you’ve fared better than I have. I guess my arms and legs finally got tired after treading water for the first six weeks. Weeks 7 and 8 weren’t great and then Week 9 hit like a seafood platter that sat in the trunk of a car for three days. It was a nasty scene out there.
If you find yourself using the tools but still unable to put together a decent showing then go ahead and reach out to our coaches. Use everything that we have to offer and you should see improvement in your play. I say this because it’s worked for me since the launch of the site. We can’t win every time we play but we can definitely put ourselves in the best position to be successful. So let’s get to it!
The information below comes via Fantasy Cruncher. Thanks Fantasy Cruncher! Their Lineup Study feature allows you to look back through years of contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Lineup Rewind feature lets you practice different lineup building strategies without burning through your bankroll with trial and error. The site provides these services for the NFL and nearly all the other sports that DK and FD offer.
NFL DFS Lineup DraftKings Milly Maker Week 9 Winner
Here’s the winning lineup for the $20 Milly Maker:
Ok this gets repeated so often that if you’ve been following along with this series you know that a large majority (76%) of all Milly Maker winning quarterbacks come from games within the Top 5 for implied game total. That means every week I start by isolating the games with the highest implied totals, and then try to find the quarterbacks that fit my mold for success. Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers had an implied game total of 49.5 in their match against the Philadelphia Eagles. Well within the Top 5 and the streak continues.
Rbradley23 stacked Herbert with one receiver in Keenan Allen and didn’t run it back with any Eagles players. Something that Rbradley23 did that I tend not to do is they used two players from the same team (Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki) without using their QB or the opposing QB. I set a limit of one player from the same team unless paired with their quarterback or the opposing quarterback and it was the wrong play this weekend.
Lastly, we can see this lineup had two huge pieces of chalk in Nick Chubb and Marquise Brown along with somewhat popular plays in Jaylen Waddle, Keenan Allen, and Mike Gesicki. It’s an overall solid lineup for a weekend when the scores were down and the randomness was off the charts.
NFL DFS Lineup DraftKings $4,444 Milly Maker Week 9 Winner
Here’s the winning lineup for the $4,444 Milly Maker:
Congrats to Vassa for taking down the million dollar top spot. They used a QB+WR+Opp WR stack and all around sound lineup construction. The first part of lineup building is selecting quarterbacks from the Top 5 in implied game total on the slate, so this lineup used a quarterback from the game with the highest implied total on the slate. From there, two more players from that game were included for a good foundation.
Ownership is a little different for this contest since there are less than 700 entries so seeing five players with more than 20% ownership isn’t unusual. In fact, if you’re like me, you’re looking at this lineup and saying “How didn’t I build one like this?” It was right there for us. It’s just a matter of solving the puzzle on a weekly basis.
Check out this huge win from Team Rise or Fall coach Dabbingpuggle:
NFL DFS Lineup Study for the Week 9 FanDuel $1.75M NFL Sunday Million ($300K to 1st)
Let’s take a quick look at how things played out on FanDuel
Player Machine54 also used Lamar Jackson as the foundation of their lineup. I can’t guarantee a lot of things in NFL DFS but using a quarterback from the Top 5 in implied game total should be seared into your brains after me repeating a gajillion times. It is literally the easiest place to start building your lineups on a weekly basis.
Machine54 paired Jackson with Marquise Brown but didn’t run it back with any opposing players. Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs, and Nick Chubb all carried ownership over 20%, so not an overly chalky lineup. The big star of this lineup, and the weekend, is James Conner. Arizona Cardinals running back Chase Edmonds was injured in the first quarter of the game. Conner made the most of the extra work by running through the San Francisco 49ers defense. In a weekend full of landmines, Conner was a life saver.
The New England Patriots defense dropping 20 fantasy points is also a huge boost. I use 12 points as a “good” performance mark for my DST. Having a DST drop 20 points gives you so much cushion throughout your lineups. This weekend is a bad example because of so many duds but if you have a 20 point DST and one dud in your lineup, you’re generally having a great Sunday.
That’s all for me. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @eagsixcards. Good luck to everyone this weekend!