NFL DFS Lineup Study
Man it was great to see football back, and even though I’m personally worried about rising covid numbers and variants and all that, it was GREAT to see stadiums full of people cheering on the games. It made everything seem like normal outside of everything not being normal at all.
The season started with a whimper for me. I’ll explain more on that as we move forward with the article. Thankfully the NFL added an extra week to the season that gives us one more week to chase.
The information below comes via Fantasy Cruncher. Thanks Fantasy Cruncher! Their Lineup Study feature allows you to look back through years of contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, and the Lineup Rewind feature lets you practice different lineup building strategies without burning through your bankroll with trial and error. The site provides these services for the NFL and nearly all the other sports that DK and FD offer.
NFL DFS Lineup Milly Maker Week 1 Winner
The Number 1 rule of NFL DFS Lineup Study is always talk about lineup study articles. Share them with your fantasy playing friends and family. Post them on all of your social media accounts. The Number 1a rule is that quarterbacks from the top 5 in implied game total on the slate win the Milly Maker 76% of the time. I wonder how it turned out in Week 1..
There were 14 teams within the top 5 for implied game total this week because of the logjam at 49 points. Remember, I don’t recommend using every quarterback from the teams above. That’s just the starting point for my weekly research based on three years worth of NFL DFS lineup studying.
Here’s the winning lineup for the Week 1 NFL DFS Milly Maker:
Congratulations to blbrown1994 for the Milly takedown. I’ll keep it 100 with you.. I never would’ve run this lineup. While the Bengals were in the top 5 for implied game total, I wasn’t sure how well their offense would play in Week 1, and I definitely didn’t like them having the lowest implied team total out of the 14 teams.
It’s not as if Joe Burrow had a huge game either. If we were judging Burrow by the average winning quarterback score from last season (30+ DK points) then we’d say he had an awful game. The lineup construction afforded by a sub 6k QB allowed blbrown1994 to grab some studs with their mostly mid-priced players.
Less than half (Four out of nine) of the players in the winning lineup can be classified as chalk. This shows again that we don’t have to run from the chalk. We’ll be fine most weeks with a few chalky players surrounded by players with an ownership of 15% or less. There always seems to be a week or two where six out of nine players are chalk. That’s fine. I don’t expect to win every week. (It should be noted that the projected ownership (pOwn) shows no players above 20% so it was projected to be a much more unique lineup.)
The Week 1 Milly Maker sees a QB+RB+WR stack grab first place. That stack type has now won a total of four Milly Makers over the last four seasons. In last week’s Milly Maker Refresher we saw that stacking a quarterback with an opposing wide receiver won 10 out of 17 Milly Makers in 2020. That means that seven out of 17 times there was no opposing wide receiver so there’s nothing out of the ordinary with this lineup construction.
NFL DFS Lineup Study for FanDuel Milly Maker
I know this article is focused on DraftKings, but I wanted to throw a little information out there for the folks that play on both sites or maybe just FanDuel only.
These were the most popular stack types for Milly Maker winners on FanDuel in the 2020 season:
And here’s the Milly Maker winning lineup for Week 1 on FanDuel:
The rule of using a quarterback from the top five of implied game totals on the slate holds true on FanDuel as well. And we can see that it paid off in Week 1.
FanDuel doesn’t allow for the exact same access to information that DraftKings does so we can’t go as in depth with the lineup breakdown. We do see that the winner used a QB+WR stack and no opposing wide receiver. Not how I like to build lineups but again, not out of the ordinary. FOR ME, using a running back and tight end from the same team without their quarterback is not ideal. I know lineup construction varies from week to week but I can only think of a few teams where the usage of the two positions would be high enough for me to even consider that structure.
If any of you out there would like to see a FanDuel focused article you should hit me up on Twitter at @eagsixcards. I’ll run it up the ladder and see what the Captain says.
Good luck to everyone in Week 2. I’ll see you in seven days.