NFL DFS Picks for Conference Championship Sunday 01/29/23
Welcome to the NFL Conference Championships DFS picks article. As the final four teams battle it out for a spot in the Super Bowl, we have an exciting weekend ahead of us. Fantasy football players are also gearing up to make their DFS picks for the biggest game of the year. This article provides an in-depth analysis of some of the top NFL players and provides recommendations for your DFS lineups. So, let’s dive in and find out who the must-haves are for the Conference Championships.
NFL DFS Top Plays and Analysis for Conference Championship Sunday 01/29/23
Jalen Hurts, a DFS Steal at FD 9200 and DK 7200
The Eagles boast the highest projected total on the two-game slate, and Hurts is poised to make the most of it against a tough 49ers defense. With a high floor and possibly even higher ceiling, Hurts demonstrated his versatility in last week’s dominant win against the Giants, completing 66.6% of his passes and rushing for 34 yards on nine carries. As the Eagles continue their push towards the super bowl, Hurts has maintained a strong performance, ranking eighth in yards per attempt and 14th in adjusted completion rate among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. The 49ers defense has struggled recently, ranking 23rd in passing yards per game and 21st in pressure rate, giving Hurts ample opportunities to showcase his talent.
Mahomes vs. Hurts: Who Comes Out on Top?
While Patrick Mahomes may deserve recognition as the most expensive quarterback on this slate, Hurts is a valuable option at a discounted price of $400 on DraftKings. With a higher average FPPG and the advantage of a healthy and mobile quarterback, Hurts is a solid choice for cash games. The Eagles’ dynamic supporting cast of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, along with Hurts’ own rushing abilities, make him a formidable force in the DFS world. In comparison to Mahomes, who will be playing injured against a fierce Bengals defense, Hurts is a savvy choice for those looking to maximize their lineup value.
The Ultimate DFS Choice: Hurts Offers Savings and Potential
Jalen Hurts proved his worth in the Divisional Round against the Giants, collecting 23.6 points with ease. Despite facing a tougher challenge from the 49ers, Hurts’ exceptional season statistics and dynamic supporting cast make him a valuable choice for DFS players. Save yourself $400 and invest in a quarterback with a high floor and ceiling, who is ready to make a major impact on your lineup tonight.
Burrow’s statistics speak for themselves, with a 72.2% completion rate and 9.0 yards per attempt in their previous three encounters. Burrow has proven to be a top quarterback, with a PFF passing grade rank of first and adjusted completion rate of eighth among those with minimum 150 dropbacks. He’s also ninth in fantasy points per dropback and among the top five in accuracy against man and zone coverage. While the Chiefs defense has been strong with a seventh-place rank in success rate per dropback, fifth in EPA per drop back, and 11th in explosive pass rate allowed, Burrow’s arsenal of weapons, including Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon, make him a top contender for this slate.
Burrow Outshines Mahomes in DFS
In the world of DFS, there’s been a heated debate over whether Joe Burrow is better than Patrick Mahomes. While that may be a bold claim, what’s certain is that Burrow is the better pick for this weekend’s AFC Championship. With four 20-point games in his last five, he’s facing a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the second-most DK and fourth-most FD PPG this year. Additionally, Burrow’s past success against Kansas City, with a 3-0 record and eight touchdowns to one interception, puts him in a strong position to deliver this weekend. And at a lower price point compared to Mahomes, Burrow presents a great opportunity for savings in your DFS lineup.
Patrick Mahomes is expected to play this week for the Kansas City Chiefs despite an injury. Mahomes has a history of success against the Cincinnati Bengals and has shown determination to play even when injured. He has surpassed 260 passing yards and 7.5 yards per attempt, as well as multiple passing touchdowns, in one of his last three games against the Bengals. However, the Bengals defense has been strong recently and they are tough against deep passing, ranking 6th in DVOA, but are average against short passing.
His injury situation and his price relative to Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow will result in him being a lower owned contrarian play on this slate. With that in mind, I’ll have plenty of Mahomes exposure in tournaments on this small 2 game slate.
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Christian McCaffrey FD 9000 DK 8000
McCaffrey played 67% of snaps for the 49ers last week and had 10 carries and 8 targets, but only gained 57 total yards and scored 1 TD. Despite a tough matchup against a strong Eagles defense, McCaffrey has immense upside and remains a safe play due to his high volume of touches. He also dominated in the passing game with a high route run rate (81.8%) and target share (30.8%). If he’s healthy, he’s expected to play 70% of snaps or more. McCaffrey ranks high in evaded tackles (16th), yards created (4th) and yards per route run (3rd).
The Eagles have struggled against the run over the past few weeks, ranking 18th in rushing yards per game, 21st in EPA per rush and 15th in explosive run rate allowed. Over the last 4 games, they’ve allowed 19th most fantasy points per game to RBs.
Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine: The Cincinnati Bengals Running Back Committee
In recent weeks, Joe Mixon has played 45-56% of snaps and has been the lead in the Bengals running back committee. Despite this, he is not the sole workhorse of the team and has shared some of the workload with Perine. However, Mixon has been given the majority of the red zone work, and the Bengals may look to lean on him again in upcoming games.
Mixon has been a consistent volume player this season, ranking 54th in juke rate and 43rd in yards created per touch. Despite his lower efficiency statistics, he has been successful in previous matchups against the Chiefs, averaging 21.5 touches and 100.5 total yards. Mixon also holds a solid 11th place in yards per route run and seventh place in target share among running backs. The Chiefs defense has been weaker against the run, ranking ninth in rushing success rate and 23rd in EPA per rush allowed.
On the other hand, Perine has played a significant role in the running back committee, appearing in 41% or more snaps in four of the last five games. He has been the more efficient back, ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt and 23rd in PFF elusive rating. Over the past 5 weeks Perine has also shown off his receiving skills, with a 7.1% target share and a 43% route run rate. He is a great stacking option with Bengals quarterback Burrow and provides a good leverage play against the popular Mixon.
In conclusion, the Bengals running back committee consists of both Mixon and Perine, with Mixon taking the lead in red zone work and Perine being the more efficient option. The Chiefs defense has shown weakness against the run, providing potential opportunities for both Mixon and Perine in upcoming matchups.
Jerick McKinnon / Isaiah Pacheco: Chiefs RB Committee
The emergence of Jerick McKinnon in the Chiefs’ backfield is a topic that has been making waves recently. With a 65% snap rate in last week’s game against the Jaguars, McKinnon appears to be the plan for the Chiefs’ rushing game. However, with the recent injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the future of the Chiefs’ offense is uncertain. Despite a lack of targets last week, McKinnon’s high snap rate and positive stats in yards per touch and yards per route run make him a viable option for this week’s short slate.
On the other hand, Isiah Pacheco has been making waves as a runner in recent weeks. With impressive yards after contact and breakaway run stats, Pacheco could be in for a big day with the right opportunities. Given his recent success and the Chiefs’ desire to limit Mahomes’ exposure, Pacheco could be in for a solid 12-touch game with the potential for even more.
In conclusion, both McKinnon and Pacheco have the potential to shine in this week’s game, with McKinnon’s increased usage and high ceiling in the Chiefs’ offense making him the favorite play for running backs. Regardless of who you choose, it’s clear that both players have a lot to offer in the upcoming game.
Bengals Wide Receivers, Ja’Marr Chase: An Impactful WR to Watch Out For
This week’s two-game slate opens with Ja’Marr Chase, who figures to be one of the biggest impactful wide receivers in the game. Despite only receiving eight targets last week against the Bills, he still managed to put up 7/97 in the previous game against them. He has a remarkable track record, with double-digit targets in eight of his last ten games, making him a player to keep an eye on.
Since Week 13, Chase has been a dominant force in the game with a 30.7% target share, 36.8% end zone target share, and 40.2% air yard share. He ranks high in PFF receiving grade, yards per route run, and yards after catch per reception. He is a reliable receiver, having received at least eight targets in every game since Week 5.
This week, Chase will face L’Jarius Sneed and Jaylen Watson, both of whom have allowed a high catch rate and passer rating. This makes Chase a strong contender for the top receiver play on the two-game slate.
Tyler Boyd: A GPP Play with Potential
This week, we are going back to Tyler Boyd as a GPP play. Although he had a disappointing outing last week, only catching one pass against Buffalo, he still has the potential to come out big in this game.
Boyd has struggled since Week 15, with only one receiving touchdown and one game with over 50 receiving yards. He is facing Trent McDuffie, who has allowed a high catch rate and passer rating in his three games as the slot corner.
Boyd is a high-risk, high-reward play, and is best suited for tournament play on the two-game slate. He has the potential to come out with a big game, and is definitely worth considering for those looking for a GPP play with potential.
Eagles pass catchers
A.J. Brown is set to have a big game against the 49ers, with a 25% target share and big play potential. Brown ranks high in target share, end zone target share, and air yard share. The 49ers are vulnerable against deep passing, making Brown a strong play. He runs 84% of his routes against Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, who have allowed a high catch rate. Brown has been the top option against zone coverage and has been producing strong results with a 16th rank in PFF receiving grade and sixth rank in yards per route run against zone.
DeVonta Smith has also been a strong performer since Week 16, with a 35.5% target share and 57.1% end zone target share. He ranks 20th in PFF receiving grade and 29th in yards per route run against zone. Smith is a good stacking option with Hurts and has high deep targets and open rate among wide receivers. He runs 72% of his routes against Ward and Lenoir.
Chiefs pass catchers
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Kadarius Toney: Who to Play in Your Fantasy Lineup
In this week’s matchup, both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are intriguing plays in the wide receiver position. Smith-Schuster has been limited to only 11 targets in his last four games and hasn’t seen more than four targets in a game since Week 16. However, he still ranks 34th in yards per route run and 9th in YAC per reception. The Cincinnati Bengals will face a slot trio in Smith-Schuster, who will run a little over half of his routes against Mike Hilton.
On the other hand, Kadarius Toney played only 20 snaps last week but was given the ball on eight of them, finishing the game with 50 total yards. Toney has drawn a 20.6% target share and has four red zone targets over his last four games. With Patrick Mahomes banged up, Kansas City might rely more on Toney and spread the ball out amongst their wide receivers. Toney will run about 54% of his routes against Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt.
In conclusion, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is a well-known name, Kadarius Toney looks like he may be getting more involved in the offense for Kansas City. Based on recent trends, Toney might be a better option to play in your fantasy lineup over Smith-Schuster.
49’ers pass catchers
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, both wide receivers for the San Francisco 49ers, are two players to watch for in the coming games. Deebo Samuel has been consistently making plays and leading the team in targets and yardage. He is known for his quickness, agility, excellent hands, and versatility, making him a constant threat to the opposing defense. He is expected to perform well against Darius Slay and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson this weekend and continue to be a standout player for the 49ers.
Brandon Aiyuk has also been a crucial part of the 49ers’ offense this season, with 27 receptions, 349 yards, and two touchdowns since Brock Purdy took over the offense. He has quickness, agility, and excellent hands and is a versatile player, making him a valuable asset to the team. He is expected to perform well against the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend.
Whether you are stacking the 49ers or simply looking for a player to add to your lineup, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are both players to keep an eye on this weekend. They both have the potential to be breakout stars in the making and are worth considering for your lineup.
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In this reduced player pool, it’s hard to not consider Travis Kelce for your DFS lineup. Kelce had a monster game last week with 17 targets, 14 catches, 98 yards, and two touchdowns. Despite concerns around Patrick Mahomes, Kelce is still the top option for the Chiefs. He has been the best tight end in the league this season, ranking first in red zone targets and third in target share. This week, he faces Cincinnati, who has been struggling against tight ends lately. Kelce is a lock play this week.
George Kittle, with Brock Purdy throwing the ball, has maintained a decent target share and end zone target share. Since Week 15, the Eagles have struggled against tight ends, allowing a high catch rate and receiving yards. Kittle has been 2nd on the team in slot snaps and is a viable stacking option with Hurts.
Dallas Goedert, since returning to the lineup, has seen a solid target share and end zone target share. He is an efficient tight end, ranking 3rd in yards per route run and 7th in fantasy points per route run. The 49ers have struggled against tight ends lately, making Goedert a viable stacking option with Hurts.
Hayden Hurst has had an increase in targets since his return and has been involved in the Bengals’ offense. He has a good matchup this week against the Chiefs, who have struggled against tight ends lately. Hurst is the favorite value play at tight end on this four-game slate.
In conclusion, the Conference Championships are always an exciting time for NFL fans, and this year is no different. With so many talented players in the running, it can be tough to know who to choose for your DFS lineup. However, the players discussed in this article are among the top choices and are sure to give you a competitive edge. Whether you’re a seasoned DFS player or a newcomer, these picks will help you make informed decisions for your lineup. So, get ready for a thrilling weekend of NFL action, and good luck with your DFS contests this week.
That’s all I’ve got for today
Thank you for checking out the article, I hope I was able to provide you with some value as you begin to build your DFS lineups for today’s contests.
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