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NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Study

NFL DFS Showdown

Welcome to the NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Study. I have gone back and looked through slates back into the 2019 season to see what kind of trends and strategies are needed to be successful at NFL Showdown slates. I am going to be breaking down what has been optimal roster construction for each site, and some rules I think we should look to set when building our lineups in FC.

Lineup Construction:

One of the biggest things I noticed while going through rewind and NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Study for DraftKings and FanDuel of optimal showdown lineups is you don’t need to spend all your salary. On average tournament winning NFL showdown lineups on DraftKings leave anywhere from 1,000-1,500 on the table. Doing this will make you unique as most of the field is still using most of their salary. Same on FanDuel but you can really get unique with leaving even more on the table as you don’t need to worry about salary multipliers there and only 5 spots to fill

Each sites roster construction is going to vary:

DraftKings Lineup Study:

  • On DK, since this is a PPR (point per reception) site we are going to want at least 1 WR if not at least two (depending on the game and teams playing)
  • Pass-catching RBs too are included in that too.
  • In tournaments only need 1 QB. Rarely did two QBs end up in the optimal lineup. In cash contests though, we want a scoring floor for our lineup so for the most part we want to start our lineup there with two QBs (team dependent of course)
  • Aside from stud TEs or teams that target their TEs a ton, don’t feel the need to force one in
  • Defenses and Kickers: Great for cash games, not so much for tournaments. Only show up in the optimal lineup about 25% of the time
  • Team Stacks: 4-2, 3-3, 5-1 all show up pretty similar in terms of optimal route
  • Vegas/Ownership/Game Flow should dictate which way you go
  • Is Vegas predicting a blowout? Then load up on the favored team in a 5-1 or 4-2 stack
  • Top CPT plays:
  • Favored RB, WR, QB were optimal CPT plays in nearly 60% of tournament-winning lineups

FanDuel Lineup Study:  

One note I want to make about FanDuel is they have added defenses to their Single Game product this year. This mean the data is going to be a bit skewed as we review the last few years but I think we can look at DraftKings and see defenses only appear in optimal lineups a little less than 15% of the time in general and less than 6% of the time at CPT. With FanDuel still only having 5 spots to fill I think it will be very hard for defenses to be optimal without getting a defensive TD and the offenses in the game doing next to nothing, which rarely happens in today’s NFL. 

  • FD, touchdowns are King
    • At MVP we really want to focus the majority of MVP exposures to QBs or the favored RB as they show as optimal in nearly 80% of the lineups.
    • Kickers: Similar to DK, great for cash games, not so much for tournaments. Appeared in optimal lineups less than 20% of the time. We will have to wait and see how defenses effect kickers on FD if at all. 
    • 3-2 stacking was the most common type of lineup construction in the winning lineups

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Other Findings: 

I also wanted to point out some observations about quarterbacks I saw in the top lineups.

  • Team dependent but for the most part, we want to pair with at least 2 pass catchers but no more than 3
  • Besides maybe Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler Murray, never run your QB out there with no pass catchers. Don’t get cute.
  • Set your rules in FC and/or Create groups

Showdown Findings Summary:

So what did we learn from all this?

  • Don’t worry about using all your salary
  • Most winning lineups have multiple pass catchers (2-3 typically)
  • In GPPs no need to force 2 QBs
  • Don’t stack defenses. Max 1
  • Same with Kickers. Max 1
  • Only one TE per lineup unless it is the studs. Don’t feel the need to force the bad ones, they are cheap for a reason
  • Always Stack QB with WR/RB/TE (Team Dependent)
  • Correlation is very important to have with CPT/MVP spots
  • Besides maybe Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler Murray, never run your QB out there with no pass catchers. Don’t get cute.
  • Always have an RB. Just about 95% of the winning lineups had at least 1 
 
Hope you have enjoyed this NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Study for DraftKings and FanDuel. I will also be breaking down each and every primetime showdown matchup this year with both an article and a full pool breakdown for our members. 

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