🏈 NFL DFS Stacks for Week 12
Welcome to the weekly DFS game stacking strategy article. At this point, most DFS regulars understand the concept of stacking, that is rostering multiple players from the same team on your DFS roster. The idea is to take advantage of positive correlation to maximize your potential ceiling. While this has become more commonplace, using point spreads and projected point totals to stack entire games is less prevalent. That’s what this article will focus on each week.
When game stacking, it’s important to look at the outcomes you expect and tell yourself a story about how it gets there. For each game I’m looking to stack below, I’ll include the point spread, the projected over/under point total, and the implied narrative that gets the game to that outcome. From there, I’ll explore the stacking options that would provide the biggest DFS boost if the narratives come to fruition. Let’s dive in!
Buccaneers (-3) at Colts
Narrative: Highest scoring game of the week
If this game goes the way the oddsmakers expect it to, it will be the most stackable game of the slate. Tom Brady leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and Indy has given up the most, so starting with Brady is an obvious move. As usual, stacking him with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans makes sense, but don’t forget about Rob Gronkowski. The Colts have given up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, so I prefer to use him and one of the wideouts with Brady. Jonathan Taylor is an ideal candidate to run it back with, no matter how good Tampa’s run defense looks on paper.
The more contrarian way to attack this game is by stacking on the Indy side. If the Bucs get out in front early, the Colts may have to abandon the run and lean on Wentz. Stacking him with Micheal Pittman comes with plenty of upside, and you get even more if you add T.Y. Hilton to the mix. Leonard Fournette is the traditional run-back option on the other side, but with Tampa’s pass-heavy approach, end zone target hogs Evan and Gronkowski also work.
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Vikings at 49ers (-3)
Narrative: Sneaky stacks on both sides
Believe it or not, Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 22.4 fantasy points over his last four games. Now he and the 49ers take on a Vikings team that’s allowed the most fantasy points to QBs over the last three weeks. He has plenty of stacking options with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Deebo has been the better fantasy player this year, but Aiyuk has picked up his production lately and comes with a more affordable salary. Either way, Kittle is locked into my lineup if I’m rolling with Jimmy G. On the other side, we have another perfect run-back option with workhorse running back Dalvin Cook.
On the other side, Kirk Cousins has been even better for DFS lineups lately, averaging 26.1 fantasy points over his last three games. It makes the most sense to lock him in with Justin Jefferson, then choose between Adam Thielen and Tyler Conkin on the Minnesota side. It’s not so straightforward for options to run it back with the Niners. Elijah Mitchell is my favorite option if he’s able to play. If not, Jeff Wilson Jr. becomes intriguing. Deebo or Kittle is also worth consideration on the other side of a Cousins stack.
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Rams (-2) at Packers
Narrative: Gunslingers shoot it out
The Rams are road favorites in the quarterback dual, so let’s start with Matthew Stafford. Cooper Kupp, while expensive to get in your lineup, is the most obvious stacking partner. Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson also warrant consideration and come with more affordable salaries. Tyler Higbee should also be in play, as it’s always nice to stack a tight end with your quarterback if you can. AJ Dillon would be the best option to run it back with on the other side unless Aaron Jones returns this week. Davante Adams also always needs to be in consideration if you’re building a stack with his opponent.
Speaking of Adams, starting a stack with him and Aaron Rodgers is always a good idea. From there, you can add Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Randall Cobb to the mix. Darrell Henderson is the option to run it back with on the ground for the Rams, but Kupp also needs to be in consideration.
Falcons (-2) at Jaguars
Narrative: Two bad teams score a lot of fantasy points
This game could fly under the radar, but I like it to hit the over. Neither team is likely to be popular on this slate, and the players are extremely affordable, so I’ll be stacking both sides of it in tournaments. Let’s start with the home team.
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t flashed much this year, but he’s got upside this week against an Atlanta team that’s allowed 20 passing touchdowns and only picked off four passes this season. I love his stacking options. It’s been a while since Marvin Jones had a big fantasy week, but you know he’s capable of exploding on any given slate. Laviska Shenault should see an uptick in production from the slot with Jamal Agnew sidelined, and Dan Arnold should bounce back from his goose egg last week. I’m stacking Lawrence with at least two of those pass-catching options, then running it back with Cordarrell Patterson (as long as he plays) or Kyle Pitts on the other side.
With Atlanta, it’s as simple as stacking Matt Ryan with Pitts and Patterson, then running it back with James Robinson on the other side. You can take a cheap dart throw with any of Atlanta’s other pass-catchers, though it’s tough to have confidence in any of them.