Setting the Stage

According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs are an 8.5-point favorite in this matchup, with a projected total of 41.5 points. It’s going to be a game that could swing in any direction, making it an intriguing prospect for NFL DFS enthusiasts.

For those new to single-game DFS, it’s essential to understand the format. Single-game slates on FanDuel feature five flex spots with scoring identical to the main slate. However, kickers are included, and there’s an “MVP” roster slot, which grants 1.5 times the total fantasy points, making this selection critical.

MVP Candidates

We can’t discuss this game without mentioning the star of the show, Patrick Mahomes ($18,000). Mahomes, with a salary that’s $3,000 above any other player, is the obvious MVP candidate. However, the Jets’ defense, though underestimated, presents a challenge. Mahomes’ ability to navigate this challenge and exploit the Jets’ weaknesses will be pivotal.

Travis Kelce ($15,000) is another standout option. Despite starting the season with a knee issue, Kelce maintains a commanding target share of 22.4%, making him Mahomes’ top target. Moreover, the Jets are yielding the ninth-most adjusted FanDuel points per target to tight ends, making Kelce an appealing choice.

For those looking to take a contrarian approach, two Jets players could surprise. Garrett Wilson ($13,500) boasts a 31.8% target share, averaging 7.3 looks per game. While facing a formidable Chiefs’ pass defense, volume could work in Wilson’s favor.

Breece Hall ($13,000), though not as prominent as Wilson, is still in the mix. With an increasing snap count, he’s poised for a breakthrough. However, the Jets’ offense has yet to hit its stride, which could impact Hall’s performance, especially as he has yet to record a red zone touch this season.

Flex Breakdown

If the Jets manage to find offensive success, it’s likely to come from their ground game. Kansas City’s rush defense ranks 16th in numberFire’s rankings, making it the path of least resistance. Both Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook ($10,500) are viable options in the flex position, with Cook being the preferred choice due to his goal-line work.

Kansas City’s running backs, Isiah Pacheco ($12,000) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($8,500), present a challenge. They split carries evenly last week, with Pacheco adding passing game involvement. Considering salary, Edwards-Helaire is the better choice, despite being less efficient.

Among the wide receivers, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,000) stands out with his deep threat ability. With a 16.1 average depth of target (aDoT), he can pay off with a single big play. Rashee Rice ($7,500) is also worth considering, given his increasing role in the offense.

Zach Wilson ($12,500) is worth considering outside the multiplier spot, primarily due to his rushing ability. In a low-scoring game, his legs could provide an edge. However, it’s essential to note that Wilson has yet to post impressive fantasy numbers this season.

New York’s passing game is struggling, making Allen Lazard ($7,500), Tyler Conklin ($7,000), and Randall Cobb ($7,000) less appealing options. However, they could be considered in projections of a potential resurgence.

Defensive Plays and Kickers

In games involving the Jets, it’s wise to consider kickers. Greg Zuerlein ($9,500) is an excellent choice, as the Jets settle for field goals often in the red zone. Harrison Butker ($9,000) also offers security and the potential for points in a high-scoring offense.

Given the low total projected for this game, both defenses are viable options. The New York Jets D/ST ($9,000) may seem unconventional against Mahomes, but they lead the NFL in pressure rate, increasing the possibility of a turnover for a touchdown. Xavier Gipson ($5,500) has also shown his skills as a return man. On the other side, the Kansas City D/ST ($11,000) is a solid choice, having scored double-digit fantasy points in consecutive games.

Strategy Groups to Consider

• Include at most 2 kickers + DSTs.
• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs.
• If captaining an expensive pass catcher, limit other pass catchers from the same team to at most 1.
• If captaining a quarterback, include at least 2 of their pass catchers.
• At most 2 of Pacheco, McKinnon, and CEH.

In conclusion, the Sunday Night Football clash between the Chiefs and the Jets promises excitement and DFS opportunities. Consider the strengths and weaknesses of each player, and don’t be afraid to take a contrarian approach to gain an edge in your lineup building. May the best lineup win, and enjoy the game!