🏈NFL DFS Week 10 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings
NFL DFS Week 10 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings
Welcome to the NFL DFS Week 10 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings! I’m going to highlight players each week that stand out in the Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. This is a data driven piece with no personal bias. When referring to the Range of Outcomes tab, those numbers are referring to GPP target scores. Let’s get into it!
Josh Allen – DraftKings $7,900
Josh Allen comes in as the highest rated quarterback 98.29 on DraftKings. Buffalo has a matchup against the Jets with a team total of 30.25 in a game where they should score early and often.
Allen is projected for 35.84 pass attempts, 298.39 passing yards, 8.28 rushing attempts, 39.07 rushing yards, and 2.71 total touchdowns. Allen is priced up but the volume will continue to be there for Allen.
In the Range of Outcomes tab, Allen has a 33.6%% chance to score 30.7 points on DraftKings. Allen will be a popular option this week and easily has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Dak Prescott – DraftKings $6,900
Dak Prescott comes in as the fourth highest rated quarterback at 96.53 on DraftKings. Dallas takes on Atlanta with a team total of 31.75. The Dallas offense should be at full strength this week with Michael Gallup set to come off IR.
Prescott is projected for 33.88 pass attempts, 293.39 passing yards, and 2.21 passing touchdowns. Prescott will be the top mid range option this week and Dallas will grade out as a top stack of the week.
In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Prescott has a 48.1% chance to score 27.7 points on DraftKings. Prescott grades out as a high probability target for both cash games and tournaments.
D’Ernest Johnson – DraftKings $4,700
D’Ernest Johnson comes in as the highest rated running back on DraftKings at 91.65. Johnson is the beneficiary of Nick Chubb being sidelined due to health and safety protocols and is a clear value this week.
Johnson is projected for 15.04 rushing attempts, 63.7 rushing yards, and 0.54 total touchdowns. Johnson has to do the bare minimum to pay off his price tag this week and offers salary relief.
In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Johnson has a 54.8% chance to score 21.1 points on DraftKings. Paying down for Johnson looks like the move on DraftKings at this point. Eat the chalk and pivot elsewhere.
Najee Harris – DraftKings $7,900
Najee Harris comes in as the second highest rated running back on DraftKings at 87.04. Harris gets a matchup with Detroit with a team total of 26.25.
Harris is projected for 21.3 rushing attempts, 86.71 rushing yards, 4.36 receptions, 36.57 receiving yards, and 0.98 total touchdowns. Harris should continue to get a massive workload down the stretch and he has gotten an average of 28 touches per game in the last 4 weeks.
In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Elliot has a 34.8% chance to score 30.7points on DraftKings. Harris is a guy that will get a massive volume with a high team total. He grades out as a high floor target for cash games and has the ceiling to be in the winning lineup in tournaments.
Diontae Johnson – DraftKings $6,800
Diontae Johnson comes in as the highest rated wide receiver on DraftKings at 95.01. Johnson gets a mid range price tag and has seen a market share of 31.68% of the last four weeks.
Johnson is projected for 10.7 targets, 81.59 receiving yards, and 0.54 receiving touchdowns. Johnson should get a ton of volume with the passing game being more concentrated due to Roethlisberger’s lack of arm strength and Smith-Schuster being out.
In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Johnson has a 14.4% chance to score 27.4 points on DraftKings. Johnson is a high floor option for cash games and is a way to get Steelers exposure if you do not roster Najee Harris.
Davante Adams – DraftKings $7,900
Davante Adams comes in as the second highest rated wide receiver on DraftKings at 85.41. Adams is a guy we were paying around $9,000 for and Aaron Rodgers looks to be trending in the right direction in the health protocols.
Adams is projected for 8.7 targets, 96.27 receiving yards, and 0.54 receiving touchdowns. Adams continues to have a massive market share at 29.89% over his last four weeks.
In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Adams has a 25.3% chance to score 30.7 points on DraftKings. Adams has a massive ceiling in a game that should have a high ceiling in a game stack for tournaments.
Kyle Pitts – DraftKings $5,800
Kyle Pitts comes in as the highest rated tight end on DraftKings at 73.85. Pitts should be in a high scoring game environment with a game total of 54.5.
Pitts is projected for 7 targets, 73.08 receiving yards, and 0.35 receiving touchdowns. Pitts has been the recipient of a 21.88% market share over the past 4 weeks as he becomes the best weapon for Atlanta.
In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Pitts has an 18.2% chance to score 24.4 points on DraftKings. Pitts grades out well as a one off or as a run back in Dallas game stacks. Highest ceiling at tight end on the slate.
Pat Freiermuth – DraftKings $3,900
Pat Freiermuth comes in as the third highest rated tight end on DraftKings at 62.74. Freiermuth has emerged as a playmaker in this offense with a market share of 19.8% over the past four weeks.
Freiermuth is projected for 6.7 targets, 48.7 receiving yards, and 0.43 receiving touchdowns. Friermuth offers salary relief and gets enough of a target share to grade out as a solid value option.
In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Freiermuth has a 1.5% chance to score 18.7 points on DraftKings. This indicates to me that Freiermuth is a better cash target than a tournament target.
Good Luck on Sunday!