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🏈NFL DFS Week 16 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel

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NFL DFS Week 16 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel

Welcome to the NFL DFS Week 15 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel! I’m going to highlight players each week that stand out in the Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. This is a data driven piece with no personal bias. When referring to the Range of Outcomes tab, those numbers are referring to GPP target scores. Let’s get into it!

 

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Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes – DraftKings $7,700 FanDuel $8,700

Patrick Mahomes comes in as the highest projected quarterback on both sites at 23.41 on DraftKings and 22.55 on FanDuel. Kansas City has a team total of 28 against Pittsburgh this week.

Mahmes is projected for 35.4 pass attempts, 274.25 passing yards, and 2.15 passing touchdowns. Mahomes will have a high volume and has high ceiling stacking options in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Watch news on their Covid IR situation throughout the week.

In the Range of Outcomes tab, Mahomes has a 32.7% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 34.8% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Mahomes has the highest ceiling on the slate and looks like a great tournament play.

Justin Herbert – DraftKings $7,200 FanDuel $8,400

Justin Herbert comes in as the third highest projected quarterback on both sites at 23.01 on DraftKings and 21.76 on FanDuel.Buffalo has a team total of 27.25 against Houston this week.

Herbert is projected for 37.26 pass attempts, 279.6 passing yards, and 2.13 total touchdowns. Los Angeles will continue to run a pass heavy offense that may be more concentrated if Austin Ekeler is out this week.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Herbert has a 29.3% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 29.7% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Herbert has tournament winning upside and a rating over 110 on both sites.

Running Back

Najee Harris – DraftKings $7,400 FanDuel $8,400

Najee Harris comes in as the highest projected running back on both sites at 19.25 on DraftKings and 17.01 on FanDuel. Harris has been a workhorse seeing an average of 18.5 touches per game over the past four weeks.

Harris is projected for 18.98 rushing attempts, 74.01 rushing yards, 3.68 receptions, 26.68 receiving yards, and 0.76 total touchdowns. With a game total of 46.5, there should be plenty of scoring in the Pittsburgh/Kansas City game and Harris should be a main factor for Pittsburgh.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Harris has a 28.7% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 24.6% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Harris looks like a top pay up option with Dalvin Cook ruled out due to Covid 19.

James Robinson – DraftKings $5,900 FanDuel $8,200

James Robinson comes in as the second highest projected running back on both sites at 18.49 on DraftKings and 16.7 on FanDuel. There is a huge price difference between the two sites and Robinson should be viable on both sites.

Robinson is projected for 17.52 rushing attempts, 77.62 rushing yards, 2.71 receptions, 20.04 receiving yards, and 0.8 total touchdowns. Robinson has a rating of 100.17 on DraftKings and 80.42 on FanDuel.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Robinson has a 36.2% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 23.1% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Robinson looks like a good tournament play on FanDuel and a smash play on DraftKings.

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Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp – DraftKings $9,100 FanDuel $9,800

Cooper Kupp comes in as the highest projected wide receiver on both sites at 25.82 on DraftKings and 19.52 on FanDuel. Kupp has the highest rating on both sites and looks like the top pay up option of the week.

Kupp is projected for 16 targets, 110.74 receiving yards, and 0.69 receiving touchdowns. Kupp has a market share of 35.56% over his past four weeks. Elite volume from the Rams wideout.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Kupp has a 26.9% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 15.2% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Kupp grades out as the top pay up option this week.

Tyreek Hill – DraftKings $8,400 FanDuel $8,700

Tyreek Hill comes in as the third highest projected wide receiver on both sites at 21.73 on DraftKings and 17.14 on FanDuel. Hill has a market share of 23.4% over the past four weeks.

Hill is projected for 7.3 targets, 82.03 receiving yards, and 0.75 receiving touchdowns. Hill has a rating over 90 on both sites and has the second highest ceiling on the slate.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Hill has a 16.2% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 12.2% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Hill fits into the stack with Mahomes and has the upside to break the slate. Watch for Covid 19 news here.

Tight End

Travis Kelce – DraftKings $7,300 FanDuel $7,800

Travis Kelce comes in as the third highest projected tight end on DraftKings at 11.96 and the fourth highest on FanDuel at 9.27. Kelce is the highest rated tight end on both sites and has a massive ceiling.

Kelce is projected for 8.3 targets, 48.88 receiving yards, and 0.36 receiving touchdowns. Kelce has an elite market share of 26.6% over the past four weeks and Kansas City has the high total mentioned above.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Kelce has a 7.5% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 5.2% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. If Kelce is in, he looks like a top pay up option.

Rob Gronkowski – DraftKings $6,200 FanDuel $6,700

Rob Gronkowski comes in as the highest projected tight end on both sites at 14.91 on DraftKings and 11.83 on FanDuel. Tampa Bay is going through the ringer with injuries with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski as the only big targets not on the injury report.

Gronkowski is projected for 9.3 targets, 62.06 receiving yards, and 0.51 receiving touchdowns. Gronkowski has a market share of 21.23% which should see a bump with the injuries to this offense.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Gronkowski has a 5.1% chance to hit his tournament target score on DraftKings and a 3.8% chance to hit that score on FanDuel. Gronkowski has the upside to be the leading scorer at his position and is affordable on both sites.

Good Luck on Sunday!
TMay