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NFL DFS Week 4 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel

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NFL DFS Week 4 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel

Welcome to the NFL DFS Week 4 Study Hub Breakdown for DraftKings and FanDuel! I’m going to highlight players each week that stand out in the Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. This is a data driven piece with no personal bias. When referring to the Range of Outcomes tab, those numbers are referring to GPP target scores. Let’s get into it!

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Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes – DraftKings $8,100 FanDuel $8,700

Patrick Mahomes comes in as the second highest rated quarterback on both sites at 97.52 on DraftKings and 97.07 on FanDuel. Kansas City is in another high total game against Philadelphia with a team total of 30.5.

Mahomes is projected for 38.1 pass attempts, 320.5 passing yards, and 2.47 passing touchdowns. Massive volume in an offense that has put it’s trust into Mahomes given their struggles at running back.

In the Range of Outcomes tab, Mahomes has a 33.6% chance to score 31.3 points on DraftKings and a 38.3% chance to score 28.1 points on FanDuel.

Once again, Mahomes grades out as a phenomenal option in cash games and tournaments.

Jalen Hurts – DraftKings $6,900 FanDuel $7,900

Jalen Hurts comes in as the fourth highest rated quarterback on both sites at 96.24 on DraftKings and 96.16 on FanDuel. He faces Kansas City at home with a team total of 24.

Hurts is projected for 33.66 pass attempts, 239.8 passing yards, 44.55 rushing yards, and 1.96 total touchdowns. Hurts has been the catalyst of the Eagles offense and a consistent fantasy performer averaging 25.4 point on DraftKings and 24.4 points on FanDuel.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Hurts has a 34.4% chance to score 27.7 points on DraftKings and a 36.6% chance to score 25.7 points on FanDuel. Hurts is a great tournament option and has a high ceiling given his high volume.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara – DraftKings $8,400 FanDuel $9,000

Alvin Kamara comes in as the highest rated running back on both sites at 97.64 on DraftKings and 96.48 on FanDuel. Kamara’s rating reflects that he is underpriced relative to his volume.

Kamara is projected for 15.31 rushing attempts, 5.49 receptions, 118.3 total yards, and 1.05 total touchdowns. This is high volume for a guy that is priced in the $8,000 range on DraftKings where PPR running backs are more valuable.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Kamara has a 21.9% chance to score 32.2 points on DraftKings and a 18.5% chance to score 29 points on FanDuel. Kamara has the highest ceiling on DraftKings and is in play on both sites in cash games and tournaments.

Najee Harris – DraftKings $6,800 FanDuel $8,200

Najee Harris comes in as the second highest rated running back on DraftKings at 75.76 and the third highest rated on FanDuel at 65.1. Harris is facing a tough Packers defense but, Harris should continue to be the recipient of a large market share.

Harris is projected for 17.68 rushing attempts, 4.65 receptions, 108.98 total yards, and 0.73 total touchdowns. It appears that Harris will continue to be the feature back for this offense and has not played less than 95% of the offensive snaps in each of the three games in 2021.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Harris has a 28.9% chance to score 27.4 points on DraftKings and a 22.5% chance to score 26.6 points on FanDuel. Harris has a high floor due to his volume which makes him viable in cash games and tournaments.

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Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel – DraftKings $6,500 FanDuel $6,900

Deebo Samuel comes in as the highest rated wide receiver on both sites at 95.42 on DraftKings and 94.24 on FanDuel. San Francisco is beat up at running back and has a 27.5 team total.

Samuel is projected for 10 targets, 71.89 receiving yards, and 0.46 receiving touchdowns. Samuel has emerged as the WR1 in the early going for San Francisco with a market share of 32.97%.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Samuel has a 9.7% chance to score 26.5 points on DraftKings and a 7.8% chance to score 22.7 points on FanDuel. Samuel’s price tag makes him an appealing option in cash games and tournaments.

Davante Adams – DraftKings $7,900 FanDuel $8,100

Davante Adams comes in as the third highest rated wide receiver on DraftKings at 87.03 and the second highest rated on FanDuel at 85.39. Adams grades out as the preferred pay up option in the Rise or Fall ratings.

Adams is projected for 11.3 targets, 97.31 receiving yards, and 0.77 receiving touchdowns. Adams is clearly the WR1 on the Packers’ offense sporting a 37.78% market share thus far in 2021.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Adams has a 16.4% chance to score 30.7 points on DraftKings and a 12.8% chance to score 26.3 points on FanDuel. Adams has the highest upside at his position and is a solid pay up option at wide receiver.

Tight End

Travis Kelce – DraftKings $8,100 FanDuel $8,200

Travis Kelce comes in as the highest rated tight end on both sites at 86.49 on DraftKings and 74.96 on FanDuel. Kelce is easily the highest priced tight end on the slate but, his 25.24% market share dominates his position.

Kelce is projected for 8.7 targets, 92.4 receiving yards, and 0.7 receiving touchdowns. Kelce will be in a high scoring game environment with a 54.5 point game total and will be a priority target for Patrick Mahomes.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Kelce has a 10.2% chance to score 31.3 points on DraftKings and a 9% chance to score 26.6 points on FanDuel. Kelce is a high floor option in cash games and has the ceiling to be in winning tournament lineups.

George Kittle – DraftKings $5,900 FanDuel $6,700

George Kittle comes in as the second highest rated tight end on both sites coming in at 84.18 on DraftKings and 73.25 on FanDuel. Kittle is in the same high scoring environment as Deebo Samuel with a 27.5 team total against Seattle.

Kittle is projected for 6 targets, 63.86 receiving yards, and 0.38 receiving touchdowns. Kittle is coming off a week where he score 17.1 points on DraftKings and 13.6 points on FanDuel after a disappointing start to his 2021 campaign.

In the Range of Outcomes Tab, Kittle has a 4.4% chance to score 24.7 points on DraftKings and a 2.2% chance to score 22.1 points on FanDuel. Kittle seems to be a low probability tournament play but, the tight end position outside of Travis Kelce is very volatile.

Good Luck on Sunday!
TMay