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NFL Week 15 Slate Breakdown
| Bills at Broncos | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | BUF – Allen, Diggs & Beasley | 57.68 | $19.8 K | 39.6% | 2.91 | 49.53 | $22.4 K | 37.3% | 2.21 |
| Â | DEN – Lock, Patrick & Fant | 38.47 | $13.1 K | 26.2% | 2.94 | 33.45 | $18.1 K | 30.2% | 1.85 |
| This game has a 50 total with the Bills favored by -6.5. The Bills allow 249 pass yards, 119 rush yards and 24.7 points per game. The Broncos allow 220 pass yards, 131 rush yards and 26.7 points per game. The Bills Offense has a 40/60 run/pass ratio, while the Broncos Offense has a 43/57 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| Josh Allen is the guy we want to start our lineups with here. Over the last 3 weeks he has averaged 23.6 DK points per game and the Broncos only have 3 healthy CB’s on the roster this week, so this should be a prime spot for the Bills passing game — Allen’s top pass catcher is WR Stefon Diggs. Over his last 3 weeks, he has seen targets of 9, 10 and 14, and DK scores of 10.9, 19.2 and 32.1. His 32.69% target marketshare leads the team, and he’s the clear top option when stacking with Allen — Cole Beasley is the pretty clear #2 option in this pass game. Over the last 3 games, he is 2nd on the team with a 24.04% target marketshare, and he’s averaged 8.3 targets and 16.5 DK points per game — WR Gabriel Davis has been solid over the past 3 weeks as well, he has averaged 5.3 targets and 14.5 DK points per game. Be careful with him, if John Brown returns this week, his snaps could get cut a little — TE Dawson Knox could provide some value on this 2 game slate. He saw 7 targets last week, and is only $2.8k on DK — I don’t have much interest in the Bills running game as they use Devin Singletary and Zack Moss pretty equally. The Bills don’t really have a run first Offense so it’s tough for either of these guys to have a real slate breaking game. Singletary gets around 14 touches per game, while Moss gets around 10 touches. If I was forced to pick one, I’d go with Singletary | |||||||||
| The Broncos Offense wants to establish the run, and then take deep shots downfield. It makes sense in theory, but, the problem is the Broncos are not good at running football. This usually leads to them getting into more pass heavy game scripts, which is good for us in DFs, but, not really good for them in real life — QB Drew Lock is coming off a solid game where he scored 26.6 DK points vs the Panthers. He has 4 pass catchers we can pair him with in Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and TE Noah Fant. Over the last 4 games, that is the ranking order as far as Target markshare goes — KJ Hamler had the big week last week, scoring 22.6 DK points at just $3.0k on DK. Patrick chipped in 12.6, Jeudy scored 6.2 and Fant wasn’t targeted at all (strange) — This week, I think Fant has a bounce back game, as the Bills tend to force passes towards the middle of the field. On a small 2 game slate I’m sure I’ll have a little bit of each one of these guys — The running game is a 55/45 split between Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay. As I said above, the Broncos can’t really run well, and if you look into more advanced stats, you’ll see the Broncos rank last in “rush succes rate”. That being said, on a small 2 game slate they’ll both be in play in GPP formats, but likely not safe for any cash contests |
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| BUF – Allen + at least 1 of Diggs, Beasly, Davis + at least 1 of Patrick, Jeudy, Hamler, Fant | |||||||||
| DEN – Lock + at least 1 of Patrick, Jeudy, Hamler, Fant + at least 1 of Diggs, Beasley, Davis |
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Panthers at Packers |
DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | CAR – Bridgewater, Davis, Anderson & Moore | 64.62 | $23.1 K | 46.2% | 2.80 | 55.24 | $28.4 K | 47.3% | 1.95 |
| Â | GB – Rodgers, Adams & Tonyan | 57.46 | $21.7 K | 43.4% | 2.65 | 49.21 | $25.2 K | 42.0% | 1.95 |
| This game has a 51.5 total with the Packers favored by -8.5. The Panthers allow 250 pass yards, 113 rush yards and 25.5 points per game, while the Packers allow 226 pass yards, 109 rush yards and 24.8 points per game. The Panthers Offense has a 41/59 run/pass ratio and the Packers Offense has a 44/56 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| The Panthers rank 2nd in time of possession per drive and 5th in average yard per drive this season. Despite their TOP ranks, I’m expecting the Panthers to be forced to throw more often in this game as the Packers should get ahead of them as the game goes on. Teddy Bridgewater is 2nd in the league in competion %, behind only Drew Brees. Over his last 2 games he’s averaged 17.7 DK points per game after a solid 20.9 game last week — His top pass catcher is WR Robby Anderson, who, over the last 3 games has averaged 9.3 targets and 16.2 DK points per game. With DJ Moore out last week, Anderson saw 12 targets and scored 17.7 DK points. This week Moore should be back so those targets could come back down to the 8-9 range this week — DJ Moore has averaged 10 targets and 17.5 DK points per game, dating back to weeks 11 and 12 — Curtis Samuel is the 3rd option, but, he’s pretty close to the top 2 of Anderson and Moore. Over the last 3 weeks, he has averaged 8 targets and 16.7 DK points. Any of these 3 can safely be paired with Bridgewater this week — Christian McCafferey is likely going to be out again this week, so Mike Davis will be the lead back once again. Davis has let us down a few times this year, but, he put up a great game last week with 16 touches and 26.3 DK points. Over the last 3 weeks, Davis has averaged 18.3 touches and 17.7 DK points per game. If the Panthers can control the clock early in this game Davis could be in line for another solid performance. Overall, the Panthers have a very concentrated distribution of production. We know the majority of their points are going to come from Bridgewater, Anderson, Moore, Samuel and Davis which leads to plenty of stacking options for us if we’re targeting this team. | |||||||||
| The Packers lead the league in time of possession, and rank 2nd in the league in yards per drive. Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level this year, leading the league in QB Rating (119.7) and Touchdown passes (39). Rodgers top pass catchers is Davante Adams, who, is playing at an MVP level himself. Over the last 4 games, Adams has seen 8,9, 12 and 10 targets, leading to 26.6, 18.1, 37.1 and 27.5 DK points. Adams is essentially putting up RB1 production, like we saw from Christian McCafferey last season, from the WR position. He’s priced up to $9.4k on DK, but if you remember last year, we were paying mid $10k prices for McCafferey with similar production — After Adams, you can pair Rodgers with TE Robert Tonyan, who, over the last 4 weeks have been very consistent. He has averaged 5 targets and 15.4 DK points per game over his last 4 games. He’s been very consistent, scoring 15.4, 17.7, 13.9 and 14.6 DK points — Marquez Valdes Scantling is another solid option, and he’s always got slate breaking upside the way Rodgers targets him on deep passes. MVS has averaged 3-4 targets and 6.9 DK points per game the last 4 weeks, but, he’s got 20+ point upside every week which makes him a great GPP play — RB Aaron Jones was a popular play last week vs the Lions, and, of course he underperformed, only scoring 9.5 DK points. The Packers use Jones as the primary back, but mix in Jamaal Williams just enough reduce my interest in Jones pretty much every week. Jones averages 16.8 touches and 15.9 DK points, while Williams averaged 10 touches and 7.8 DK points per game. I’ll use Jones in tourneys, as he does have good upside, but I’m never truly excited to play him just of his lack of volume | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| CAR – Bridgewater + at least 1 of Anderson, Moore, Smuel, Davis + at least 1 of Adams, Tonyan, MVS | |||||||||
| GB – Rodgers + at least 1 of Adams, Tonyan, MVS + at least 1 of Anderson, Moore, Smuel, Davis | |||||||||
| Seahawks at WFT | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | SEA – Wilson, Metcalf & Lockett | 51.03 | $22.6 K | 45.2% | 2.26 | 45.63 | $24.2 K | 40.3% | 1.89 |
| Â | WAS – Smith, McKissic & McLaurin | 44.40 | $17.3 K | 34.6% | 2.57 | 37.85 | $19.2 K | 32.0% | 1.97 |
| This game has a 44.5 total with the Seahawks favored by -5.5. The Seahawks allow 294 pass, yards 95 rush yards and 24.9 points per game, while the WFT allows 206 pass yards, 107 rush yards and 21.2 points per game. The Seahawks and WFT both have a 40/60 run pass ratio | |||||||||
| The Seahawks Offense revoles around QB Rusell Wilson. Earlier in the season when the Seahaws were “letting Russ cook” we were targeting him weekly and he was putting up slate winning DFS scores nearly every week. Recently, he hasn’t been “cooking” as much so we can’t blindly stack him with Metcalf and/or Lockett and move on like we could then. This week, the Seahawks have a tough early, east coast game against one of the Best Defenses in the league, so this looks like a tough spot for the Offense. However, If Dwayne Haskins gets the start instead of Alex Smith, that could be better for the Seahawks Offense, as Haskins will likely put them in better situations than Smith would — Over the last 4 weeks, Wilson has averaged 18.7 DK points. His top pass catcher has been DK Metcalf, who is averaging 8.5 targets and 18.9 DK points per game. Tyler Lockett has been the #2 option, averaging 6.8 targets and 12.4 DK points. Either of these guys could blow up any week and put up a GPP winning score. This matchup is tough, but if I’m playing Wilson I’m going to stack him with one of them for sure — The Seahawks use a timeshare backfield with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. Over the last 4 weeks, Carson has averaged 13.7 touches and 17.6 DK points, while Hyde has averaged 13.3 touches and 8.3 DK points per game. This matchup is brutal for RB’s and the timeshare doesn’t excite me, but, if I had to pick just one I would lean Carson over Hyde here | |||||||||
| Alex Smith missed practice Thursday with a calf injury. We’re not sure if he’s going to play this week, so I’ll try to highlight what we like regardless of who the QB is this week. If the WFT is going to win this game, they’ll likely do it through the air. The Seahawks have been improviing Defensively as the season has gone on, with Jamal Adams now back healthy, but, they are still weak vs the pass — Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins will have a clear #1 pass catcher in Terry McLaurin at their disposal. Over the last 4 weeks, McLaurin has averaged 7 targets and only 9.4 DK points per game. He’s usually in the 15 DK point range, but, he’s had back to back poor games, scoring only 3.4 and 4.4 DK points in weeks 13 and 14 — TE Logan Thomas has benefited from McLaurin’s poor weeks, and over the last 4 weeks he has averaged 6.3 targets and 12.8 DK points. His best game was Week 13, when he put up 24.8 DK points — The 3rd leading pass catcher on the team is actually a Running Back, JD McKissic. Over his last 4 weeks, he has averaged 5 targets and 10.8 DK points per game. With staring RB Antonio Gibson out this week, McKissic should see around 65% of the snaps — RB Antonio Gibson is out, so McKissic and Peyton Barber will split time here. My main interest is with MkKissic, as his pass game roll makes him a very interesting target this week, in a game where the WFT will likely be behind | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| SEA – Wilson + at least 1 of Metcalf, Lockett, Moore + at least 1 of McLaurin, Thomas, McKissic | |||||||||
| WAS – Smith/Haskins + at least 1 of McLaurin, Thomas, McKissic + at least 1 of Metcalf, Lockett, Moore | |||||||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Bears at Vikings | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | CHI – Trubisky, Montgomery & Robinson | 53.05 | $19.9 K | 39.8% | 2.67 | 46.16 | $21.6 K | 36.0% | 2.14 |
| Â | MIN – Cousins, Cook, Thielen & Jefferson | 74.80 | $29.5 K | 59.0% | 2.54 | 64.27 | $31.7 K | 52.8% | 2.03 |
| This game has a 47 total and the Vikings are favored by -3.0. The Bears allow 232 pass yards, 115 rush yards and 22.4 points per game, while the Vikings allow 256 pass yards, 119 rush yards and 27.3 points per game. The Bears Offense has a 35/65 run/pass ratio, while the Vikings Offense has a 48/52 run pass ratio | |||||||||
| Mitch Trubisky is a fun QB to target in tourneys. He’s not afraid to make mistakes and he takes plenty of shots down the field. This leads to some blow up DFS outtings and a good amount of poor performances as well. This type of inconsistency usually leads to him being priced in the $5k range and his ownership is usually very low because people are unwilling to take the “risk” of playing him. Over the last 3 weeks, Trubisky has averaged 20.3 DK points, and I believe he’s been in the Milly Maker winning lineup 1 of those weeks — Trubiskie’s top pass catcher has been Allen Robinson, who, over the last 3 weeks has seen target totals of 13, 7, 13 and DK point totals of 27.4, 13.5 and 30.3. If I’m playing Trubisky, I’m prioritizing Robinson in those lineups — Value WR’s Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller can be considered as well. The each see between 4 and 5 targets per game, and have averaged 7 and 10 DK points per game over the last 3 weeks. Neith has the upside of Robinson, but they are viable GPP plays when paired with Trubisky — TE Cole Kmet has seen 7 targets in each of the last 2 weeks, so he can be considered as a stack partner with Trubisky as well — The running game is handled by David Montgomery, who has come on strong the past 3 weeks. He has touche totals of 16, 21, 14 with DK point totals of 28.3, 27.1 and 27.5. This week vs the Vikings, he should be in line for another good game on the ground. The Trio of Trubisky + Robinson + Montgomery has averaged 71.6 DK points per game over the last 3 games | |||||||||
| The Vikings Offense has a very concentrated distribution of fantasy production. This week, the 4 man block of Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson account for 81% of this team’s projection on DK. Over the last 4 weeks, Cousins has scored 27, 30.2, 26.4 and 18.1 DK points, for an averaged of 25.4 — Cousins’ top 2 pass catchers have been Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. Thielen has averaged 8.7 targets and 21.2 DK points, while Jefferson has averaged 9.5 targets and 21 DK points. Pairing one, or both of them with Cousins makes a lot of sense pretty much every week — TE Irv Smith Jr, saw 4 targets last week and scored 16.3 DK points. If you’re looking for a more unique stack with Cousins, he’s likely your guy — I love the Vikings passing attack, but, this Offense still revolves around RB Dalvin Cook. Over the last 4 weeks, he has seen touch totals of 32, 22, 38 and 24, leading to DK point totals of 29, 11.2, 26.9 and 22 for an average of 22.3 DK points per game — If I’m going to target this game, I’m likely going to build a few different scenarios within my lineups. (1) Vikings pass game thrives, in which I’ll target Cousins, Thielen, Jefferson and bring it back with Robinson (2) Vikings ground game thrives, in which I’ll target Cook and bring it back with Robinson (3) Bears ground game thrives, in which I’ll target Montgomery and bring it back with Thielen and Jefferson (4) Bears pass game thrives, in which I’ll target Trubisky, Robinson and bring it back with Thielan and Jefferson | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| CHI – Trubisky + at least 1 of Robinson, Mooney, Miller, Kmet + at least 1 of Cook, Thielen, Jefferson | |||||||||
| MIN – Cousins + at least 1 of Cook, Thielen, Jefferson, Smith + at least 1 of Robinson, Mooney, Miller, Kmet | |||||||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Patriots at Dolphins | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | NE – Newton, Meyers & Byrd | 37.25 | $13.9 K | 27.8% | 2.68 | 32.83 | $18.3 K | 30.5% | 1.79 |
| Â | MIA – Tagovailoa, Bowden & Hollins | 34.21 | $12.8 K | 25.6% | 2.67 | 29.62 | $16.9 K | 28.2% | 1.75 |
| This game has a total of 41.5 with the Dolphins favored by -2.5. The Patriots allow 218 pass yards, 124 rush yards and 21.5 points per game, while the Dolphins allow 242 pass yards, 120 rush yards and 18.8 points per game. The Patriots Offense has a 52/48 run/pass split and the Dolphins Offense has a 42/58 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| Tua Tagovailoa had a great game last week, scoring 31 DK points. This week he gets a tougher matchup vs a solid Patriots Defense that loves to wreck Rookie QB’s historically. Tua’s top pass catcher is WR DeVante Parker, but he’s being listed as Questionable for this game. If he’s out, the Dolphins are going to struggle mightely Offensively as RB Myles Gaskin is out as well — Without Parker we’ll see Lynn Bowden and Mack Hollins are WR for the Dolphins. They each saw 9 targets last game, with Bowden scoring 15.4 DK points and Hollins scoring 11.6 DK points — TE Mike Gesicki is being listed as questionable also this week. If he’s out and Parker is out, this is a real bad spot for the Dolphins passing attack. Last week vs the Chiefs, Gesicki put up another 20+ DK point game, scoring 23.5 DK points. If Gesicki is out, the Dolphins will go with Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe at TE. They each saw 3 targets last week, and scored a total of 8.5 DK points. Even without Gesicki, they won’t really be on my radar — RB Myles Gaskin is going to be out again, so we’ll get another week of DeAndre Washington as the lead back for the Dolphins. Last week, Washington saw 15 touches and scored 7.2 DK points vs the Chiefs. This week the matchup is more difficult vs the Patriots so he’ll be a GPP only play for me — RB Patrick Laid actually outsnapped Washington last week 51/47 but he only saw 5 total touches, so he’s not really on my radar | |||||||||
| The Patriots Offense has been a mess this year. Cam Newton has flashed 20+ DK point upside in a few games, but, overall he’s been very inconsistent. His upside keeps him in play as an option for tourneys, but it’s always a risk going heavy on Cam — His top pass catcher over the last 4 weeks, if you’re looking to stack him, has been Damiere Byrd. He has averaged 6.5 targets and 12.3 DK points per game the last 4 weeks — Jakobi Meyers has averaged 5 targets and 7.3 DK points over this 4 game stretch, while N’Keal Harry has averaged 4.3 targets and 6.6 DK points — RB James White can be considered in stacks, because of his pass catching ability. However, over the last 3 weeks he’s only seen targets of 1, 4 and 2 in each game — Overall, you don’t “need” to stack Cam Newton with a pass catcher, because of his rushing upside and goal line carries — RB Damien Harris leads the Patriots backfield with 13.8 touches per game. They use a 4 back comittee with Harris, White, Michel and Johnson so it’s tough to really target them heavily | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| MIA – Tua + at least 1 of Parker, Gesicki, Bowden, Hollins + at least 1 of Byrd, Meyeres, Harry, White | |||||||||
| NE – Newton + at least 1 of Byrd, Meyers, Harry, White + at least 1 of Parker, Gesicki, Bowden, Hollins | |||||||||
| Jaguars at Ravens | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | JAC – Minshew, Robinson & Chark | 43.67 | $17.4 K | 34.8% | 2.51 | 38.52 | $19.4 K | 32.3% | 1.99 |
| Â | BAL – Jackson, Dobbins & Andrews | 50.49 | $18.9 K | 37.8% | 2.67 | 46.16 | $20.9 K | 34.8% | 2.21 |
| This game has a 46.5 total with the Ravens favored by -13.5. The Jaguars allow 273 pass yards, 145 rush yards and 29.5 points per game, while the Ravens allow 236 pass yards, 113 rush yards and 21 points per game. The Jaguars Offense has a 35/65 run/pass ratio, while the Ravens Offense has a 54/46 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| The Jaguars will be starting Gardner Minshew this week at QB. He put up some solid DFS games earlier in the season, but, this is a really tough matchup, on the road vs a very good Ravens Defense. Minshew scored 13.3 DK points last week, and he’s got a few pass catchers we can target if we chose to do so — WR DJ Chark is probably the first player most people will look to pair with Minshew. He has averaged 8 targets per game over his last 3 games, but, has only averaged 5.9 DK points — Keelan Cole saw 12 targets last week, while Laviska Shenault saw 11. Cole scored 19.7 and Shenault scored 11.1. If you don’t like DJ Chark, you could pair Minshew with one of these two and get similar upside — RB James Robinson has been one of the biggest workhorses in the league this year. Over his last 4 games, he has seen touch totals of 19, 27, 24, 16, and DK point totals of 11.4, 29.9, 22.8 and 12.3. This week he’s in a tough spot vs a good Ravens Defense, but his volume should keep him on your radar every week | |||||||||
| The Ravens should be able to do whatever they want in this game vs this awful Jaguars Defense. Lamar Jackson is likely to be one of the highest owned players on the slate, and for good reason. Over his last 3 games, he has put up DK point totals of 17.5, 26.7 and 37.9. His rushing ability makes him one of the safest QB’s to roster each week — If you’re looking to pair him with a pass catcher, his top option is TE Mark Andrews. He has only played in 2 of the last 3 games, but, in those games he’s seen a 27.66% target marketshare and he’s scored 20.6 and 12.8 DK points. He should see even more targets this week, with Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin out on the Covid19 list — Filling in for Brown and Boykins, will be Willie Snead and Dez Bryant? Dez mentioned “quitting” after his Covid fiasco a few weeks back, so we’ll see what happens here. I don’t expect the Ravens to “need” to pass much in this game, so, my primary target will be TE Mark Andrews regardless of who starts at Wide Receiver — The Ravens use a commitee of RBs in JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram and Patrick Richard. Dobbings has been getting the majority of the work, but Edwards is right behind him. Last week vs the Browns, Dobbins saw 13 touches and scored 13.3 DK points, while Edwards saw 8 touches and scored 18.3 DK points. I would lean Dobbins if I had to pick just one of them | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| JAC – Minshew + at least 1 of Chark, Cole, Shenualt, Robinson + at least 1 of Andrews, Snead | |||||||||
| BAL – Jackson + at least 1 of Andrews, Snead + at least 1 of Chark, Cole, Shenault, Robinson | |||||||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Buccaneers at Falcons | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | TB – Brady, Evans & Godwin | 52.52 | $19.3 K | 38.6% | 2.72 | 45.28 | $22.2 K | 37.0% | 2.04 |
| Â | ATL – Ryan, Ridley & Gage | 51.86 | $18.3 K | 36.6% | 2.83 | 43.73 | $21.5 K | 35.8% | 2.03 |
| This game has a 50.5 total with the Bucs favored by -5.5. The Bucs allow 249 pass yards, 80 rush yards and 22.6 points per game, while the Falcons allow 281 pass yards, 208 rush yards and 24.8 points per game. The Bucs Offense has a 37/63 run/pass ratio, while the Falcons Offense has a 40/60 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| The Bucs Offense is full of really good players that we can target in DFS contests. The problem we run into, is the fact that there are so many good players, It’s difficult to know where the DFS production is going to come from week to week — Tom Brady has averaged 19 DK points per game over the last 3 weeks. In those games, his top 3 pass catchers have been Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown who have each averaged 7+ targets per game and 9-15 DK points per game. It’s hard to just pick one of them, so, if I build Tampa Bay stacks I’ll likely build several versions of them — TE Rob Gronkowski should be at least considered in any Tom Brady lineup as well. Over his last 3 games, Gronk has averaged 5 targets and 10.4 DK points per game — RB Ronald Jones is on the Covid list this week, so he’ll be out for this game. This should open up opportunities for Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I don’t have a lot of interest in these running backs because I feel like the Bucs will have a more pass heavy gameplan here, but, if I have to pick one it would likely be Fournette over the other two | |||||||||
| The Falcons Offense has been inconsistent all year long. If Julio Jones misses again, I’m expecting that trend to continue. Over the last 4 weeks, Matt Ryan has averaged 11.6 DK points — His top pass catcher has been Calvin Ridley, who, over that span has averaged 10 targets and 19.8 DK points per game. This is a tough matchup vs a good Bucs pass Defense, but, if I’m using Ryan, I’ll be sure to pair him with Ridley as he’s the clear top option — A solid secondary option could be Russell Gage, who, over the last 4 weeks has averaged 8 targets and 13.3 DK points. He doesn’t have the same upside as Ridley but he’s been consistent nonetheless — TE Hayden Hurst could be included in your Ryan groups, but, he hasn’t done much over the past 4 weeks, only averaging 3.1 DK points per game — The Falcons use a committee of RB’s in Todd Gurley, Ito Smith and Brian Hill. I don’t like targeting RB’s who are fighting for carries, and this is a real bad matchup vs the elite run Defense of the Bucs | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| TB – Brady + at least 1 of Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronk + at least 1 of Ridley, Gage | |||||||||
| ATL – Ryan + at least 1 of Ridley, Gage + at least 1 of Evans, Godwin, Brown, Gronk | |||||||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Lions at Titans | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | DET – Stafford, Jones & Hockenson | 33.11 | $16.7 K | 33.4% | 1.98 | 27.61 | $19.6 K | 32.7% | 1.41 |
| Â | TEN – Tannehill, Brown & Davis | 52.76 | $20.1 K | 40.2% | 2.62 | 45.77 | $22.8 K | 38.0% | 2.01 |
| This game has a 51.5 total with the Titans favored by -10.5. The Lions allow 263 pass yards, 132 rush yards and 29.9 points per game, while the Titans allow 273 pass yards, 113 rush yards and 25.8 points per game. The Lions Offense has a 37/63 run/pass ratio, and the Titans Offense has a 49/51 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| If we’re stacking the Lions pass game, we have a few clear targets in this one. Matthew Stafford has been solid, over his last 4 weeks, he has averaged 17.3 DK points. His top pass catcher has been Marvin Jones, who, over the last 4 weeks has seen target totals of 6, 12, 12, and 8, leading to DK scores of 9.1, 10.8, 28.6 and 8.8 for an average of 14.3 DK points — The 2nd leading receiver has been TE TJ Hockenson. Over the last 4 weeks, Hock, has averaged 8.8 targets and 14.1 DK points per game. Behind the super elite TE’s Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, Hockenson has been a solid 2nd tier TE this year — If you’re looking for lower owned boom or bust plays, you could target Danny Amendola with Stafford. He has averaged 6 targets and 10.9 DK points in the last 2 games — D’Andre Swift will be the lead back if he’s healthy this week. He returned from injury last week and saw 11 touches and scored 15 DK points. If he were to be out for some reason the team would use the duo of Adian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson in an equal timeshare | |||||||||
| The Titans Offense revoles around RB Derrick Henry. When he runs well this team has success, and he’s been running well recently. Over the last 4 weeks, he has seen touch totals of 29, 29, 16 and 28, leading to DK point totals of 23.2, 41.5, 6.9 and 39.2 for an average of 27.7 DK points per game — The Titans pass game has taken a back seat to the ground game this seaosn, but there are no push over by any means. Ryan Tannehill has been rock solid this year, and over the last 4 weeks he has averaged 22.5 DK points per game. His top pass catcher has been WR AJ Brown, who is averaging 7.3 targets and 20.2 DK points per game — WR Corey Davis has been the #2 option, and he’s been averaging 6.3 targets and 18.2 DK points per game — You can keep TE Jonnu Smith in the Tannehill group, but, he’s been less consistent than the WR’s this year — Derrick Henry has been a monster late in the seaosn and he’ll likely be highly owned this week. However, the Lions allow the 2nd most fantasy points per game to WR’s on this slate (35.4) so I think we can get some leverage vs the field here by targeting the Titans pass game, more heavily than the field will be doing. | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| DET – Stafford + at least 1 of Jones, Hockenson + at least 1 of Brown, Davis, Henry | |||||||||
| TEN – Tannehill + at least 1 of Brown, Davis, Henry + at least 1 of Jones, Hockenson | |||||||||
| Texans at Colts | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | HOU – Watson, Cooks & Coutee | 48.63 | $18.1 K | 36.2% | 2.69 | 42.01 | $20.6 K | 34.3% | 2.04 |
| Â | IND – Rivers, Hilton & Pittman Jr. | 42.20 | $17.5 K | 35.0% | 2.41 | 35.60 | $19.7 K | 32.8% | 1.81 |
| This game has a 51 total with the Colts favored by -7.0. The Texans allow 254 pass yards, 152 rush yards and 27.6 points per game, while the Colts allow 227 pass yards, 99 rush yards and 23.1 points per game. The Texans Offense has a 38/62 run/pass ratio, while the Colts Offense has a 44/56 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| DeShaun Watson will get his top receiver back in Brandin Cooks this week. A week after losing Will Fuller, Cook missed last week with an injury. His return should help Watson in a tough matchup vs a good Colts Defense — Over the last 4 weeks, Watson has averaged 27.9 DK points per game. Without Will Fuller in the lineup, the distribution of targets is much more spread out now. Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen are the top 3 receivers Watson throws to. In the last 4 games, Cooks has averaged 6 targets and 12.5 DK points, Coutee has averaged 4.8 targets and 12.6 DK points, and Hansen has averaged 7 targets and 15.5 DK points (2 games only). Pairing Watson with 1 or 2 of these 3 makes a lot of sense here as I don’t expect Houston to be able to run the ball very well — David Johnson should be back this week, so we should see pretty close to a 50/50 split between him and Duke Johnson this week. Neither really excites me as this team really wants to throw the ball more than they run | |||||||||
| The Colts Offense has been hot recently and it seems to be stemming from the re-emergence of WR TY Hilton. Over the last 3 games, Hilton has seen target totals of 5, 11 and 7, leading to DK point totals of 18.1, 28 and 25.6. This game sets up better for the Colts run game, but, I think Rivers + Hilton is a solid stack regardless — Over the last 4 weeks, Philip Rivers has averaged 19.5 DK Points per game. Rivers top pass catcher has been TY Hilton, followed by Michael Pittman and RB Nyheim Hines. Pittman has averaged 5.5 targets and 9.1 DK points, while Hines has averaged 5.3 targets and 12.4 DK points — If we want to attack this weak Texans run Defense, Jonathan Taylor is our guy. Over the last 3 games, he has seen touch totals of 26, 16 and 22, leading to DK Point totals of 15.4, 22.5 and 33.5. I expect the Colts to win this game, but, I think there are paths for the run game and the pass game to succeed here vs a weak Texans Defense | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| HOU – Watson + at least 1 of Cooks, Coutee, Hansen + at least 1 of Hilton, Pittman, Hines | |||||||||
| IND – Rivers + at least 1 of Hilton, Pittman, Hines + at least 1 of Cooks, Coutee, Hansen | |||||||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| 49ers at Cowboys | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | SF – Mullens, Aiyuk & Bourne | 43.13 | $15.5 K | 31.0% | 2.78 | 37.06 | $18.5 K | 30.8% | 2.00 |
| Â | DAL – Dalton, Cooper & Gallup | 42.43 | $15.3 K | 30.6% | 2.77 | 36.57 | $18.6 K | 31.0% | 1.97 |
| This game has a 45 total with the 49ers favored by -2.5. The 49ers allow 210 pass yards, 105 rush yards and 23.9 points per game, while the Cowboys allow 215 pass yards, 162 rush yards and 30.8 points per game. The 49ers Offense has a 41/59 run/pass ratio, while the Cowboys Offense has a 38/62 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| 49ers QB Nick Mullens has been decent over the last 2 weeks, scoring 25.6 and 14.4 DK points. His top pass catcher has been Brandon Aiyuk, who has seen target totals of 9 and 16, leading to DK point totals of 20.5 and 24.9. This is the clear QB+WR stack if you’re looking to stack this 49ers passing attack — Others you can consider, would be Kendrick Bourne, Jordan Reed and Richie James. All 3 are much more boom or bust than Aiyuk — I would love to target the 49ers run game vs this terrible Cowboys run Defense. The problem we run into, is the fact that the 49ers use a committee of RB’s in Jeff Wilson, Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon. In the last 3 weeks, Wilson has been the lead back, averaging 11 touches per game, but only 7.1 DK points per game. If I had to pick just one of them I would lean Wilson here, and just hope he gets into the 15-18 touch range | |||||||||
| The Cowboys Offense is full of talent and they’ve been putting up “decent” DFS scores recently, but it’s tough to get excited about them with Andy Dalton as the QB. Over the last 4 weeks, Dalton has averaged 16.9 DK points — His top pass catcher has been Amari Cooper, who has averagd 7.3 targets and 17.9 DK points — Michael Gallup has been solid, averaging 7.5 targets and 10.2 DK points over the same 4 game stretch — CeeDee Lamb is just behing Gallup, averaging 6 targets and 10.6 DK points — TE Dalton Schultz can be included in your Andy Dalton group but he doesn’t have the same upside as the WR’s. He’s averaged 4.5 targets and 8.7 DK points over the last 4 weeks — RB Ezekiel Elliot has not been the workhorse he’s been in years past. Over the last 4 weeks he’s averaging 17.5 touches and 11.9 DK points per game. Zeke has been getting around 65% of the snaps and 60% of the RB touches, while backup RB Tony Pollard gets around 35% of the snaps and 27% of the RB touches. Overall this is not a great team to target outside of a few one off GPP stacks | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| SF – Mullens + at least 1 of Aiyuk, Bourne, Reed + at least 1 of Copper, Gallup, Lamb, Schultz | |||||||||
| DAL – Dalton + at least 1 of Cooper, Gallup, Lamb, Schultz + at least 1 of Aiyuk, Bourne, Reed | |||||||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Jets at Rams | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | NYJ – Darnold, Crowder & Perriman | 34.61 | $12.9 K | 25.8% | 2.68 | 29.56 | $18.7 K | 31.2% | 1.58 |
| Â | LAR – Goff, Woods & Kupp | 51.65 | $20.1 K | 40.2% | 2.57 | 44.23 | $22.3 K | 37.2% | 1.98 |
| This game has a 44 total with the Rams favored by -17.0. The Jets allow 286 pass yards, 112 rush yards and 30.2 points per game, while the Rams allow 191 pass yards, 94 rush yards and 18.9 points per game. The Jets Offense has a 42/58 run/pass ratio, while the Rams Offense has a 45/55 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| The Jets are in a real tough spot here against one of the best Defenses in football. QB Sam Darnold followed up his solid week 13 performance of 23 DK points, with just 5.6 DK points last week in week 14. Darnold has averaged just 11.8 DK points in his last 3 games. His top 2 pass catchers have been Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman. They each average 5-6 targets per game and 7-9 DK points per game over their last 4 games. I’m expecting the Rams to control this game, and, most likley the Jets will need to at least try to pass to stay in this one. This could open up a path for Crowder or Perriman to do well, although it’s not highly likley — The Jets use 3 RB’s in Frank Gore, Ty Johnson and Josh Adams. None of them are really viable in this matchup so I’ll be avoiding them all | |||||||||
| The Rams should be able to do whatever they want in this matchup vs the awful Jets Defense. On the surface, it looks like the pass game should be in a better spot than the run game, as the Jets allow the most FP to QB (25.51) per game on the slate, and they allow the 2nd fewest FP to RB (12.03) per game to RB’s on the slate. I think the Pass game will do some damage early, and the run game will close things out in the 2nd half of this one — Jared Goff has been solid over the last 4 weeks, averaging 19.2 DK points per game. His top pass catcher has been Cooper Kupp who is averaging 11.5 targets and 19 DK points per game over this 4 game stretch — The 2nd WR Robert Woods has been solid as well, averaging 8 targets and 16.1 DK points per game. Goff + 1 of these two makes a ton of sense here — RB Cam Akers has finally taken over the lead back role, as the Rams are using less of a committee approach now. Over the last 2 games, Akers has seen 22 and 31 touches while the other RB’s have only seen 11 touches combined. Akers converted those 53 touches into 16.4 and 24.4 DK points in the last 2 weeks. He should be in play here, but, the matchup is not as “elite” as you may think | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| NYK – Darnold + at least 1 of Crowder, Perriman + at least 1 of Kupp, Woods | |||||||||
| LAR – Goff + at least 1 of Kupp, Woods + at least 1 of Crowder, Perriman | |||||||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Eagles at Cardinals | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| This game has a 49 total with the Cardinals favored by -6.5. The Eagles allow 220 pass yards, 127 rush yards and 25.2 points per game, while the Cardinals allow 224 pass yards, 119 rush yards and 23.3 points per game. The Eagles Offense has a 37/63 run/pass ratio, while the Cardinals Offense has a 45/55 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| With Jalen Hurts now the starting QB, the Eagles Offense will probably lean more run heavy than the 37/63 run/pass split I listed above. Last week, in Hurts’ first start, he scored 23.3 DK points. Most young QB’s like to target the TE as they are a bit “safer”, and last week he targeted TE Dallas Goedert 6 times. While this only led to 8.3 Dk points last week for Goedert, it’s good to know where Hurts is looking to go — Hurts targeted Jalen Reagor 4 times and Greg Ward 5 times and really didn’t take many shots downfield. The pass game is likely not something we’re going get heavy volume from. The value we get with Hurts comes from his rushing ability — Speaking of rushing ability, last week, RB Miles Sanders had a monster game. Sanders had 18 touches and saw 5 targets on the way to 32.6 DK points. With the young Hurts under center it would make sense for the Eagles to try and establish the run early and often to protect him | |||||||||
| Kyler Murray has rushing less as we get later into the season. This has knocked his upside down a peg but, he still has the ability to put up a GPP winning score. Over the past 4 weeks, Murray has averaged 16.5 DK points per game. His top pass catcher in these 4 weeks, and all season, has been WR DeAndre Hopkins. Over this 4 game stretch Hopkins has averaged 9.8 targets and 16.4 DK points per game. The last 2 weeks specifically, he’s been great, getting 13 and 11 targets, and scoring 19.2 and 25.6 DK points — Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald are the other pass catchers. The each average around 5 targets and 7-10 DK points per game over this 4 game stretch — The Cardinals use a duo at RB in Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. They split snaps about 50/50 but Drake gets more carries 56%/18%. Over the last 4 games, Drake has averaged 19 touches and 17.5 DK points per game. I’ll lean Drake here if I’m targeting any Cardinals RB’s | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| PHI – Hurts + Sanders, Goedert, Reagor, Ward + at least 1 of Hopkins, Kirk, Fitzgerald | |||||||||
| ARI – Murray + at least 1 of Hopkins, Kirk, Fitzgerald + at least 1 of Sanders, Goedert, Reagor, Ward | |||||||||
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| Chiefs at Saints | DK Proj | DK Sal | % Cap | DK Val | FD Proj | FD Sal | % Cap | FD Val | |
| Â | KC – Mahomes, Hill & Kelce | 65.55 | $24.7 K | 49.4% | 2.65 | 55.87 | $26.7 K | 44.5% | 2.09 |
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| This game has a 51.5 total with the Chiefs favored by -3.0. The Chiefs allow 230 pass yards, 128 rush yards and 21.6 points per game, while the Saints allow 209 pass yards, 89 rush yards and 20.4 points per game. The Chiefs Offense has a 38/62 run/pass ratio, while the Saints Offense has a 47/53 run/pass ratio | |||||||||
| Pat Mahomes looks to be on his way to another league MVP award. Over his last 4 games, he has scored 25.5, 35.3, 22.3 and 24.6 DK points. His top pass catchers in this 4 game stretch, and all season, have been WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce — In the last 4 weeks, Tyreek Hill has seen target totals of 14, 15, 11 and 7, leading to DK point totals of 30, 60.9, 14.8 and 26.1 for an average of 33 DK points per game — TE Travis Kelce has seen similar success, over the last 4 weeks, he has seen target totals of 10, 8, 12, and 10, leading to DK scores of 29.9, 16.2, 30.6 and 30.6 for an average of 26.8 DK points per game. The trio of Mahomes, Hill and Kelce have averaged 86.7 DK points per game over the last 4 weeks. If they scored that again this week, the trio would return 3.51x their salary and get you onto a 175 Dk point pace — Clyde Edwards Helaire is the main RB for the Chiefs, but, they don’t really run him too much every game. Over the last 4 weeks he has averaged 12 touches per game, while backup RB Le’Veon Bell has averaged 8 touches per game. If I’m using CEH I’m going to save him for large field tourneys | |||||||||
| The Saints Offense will get Drew Brees back at QB this week, but, they’ll be without their top WR Michael Thomas. This is going to lead to RB Alvin Kamara being a mega chalk play, as the Offense should run through him this week — With Taysom Hill under center, a lot of Kamar’s upside was capped, as he wasn’t seeing many targets in the pass game. Last week, he saw 10 targets, but prior to that he had only seen 3, 2, and 1 going back to Week 11. This week, I’m expecting 10+ targets from him with Thomas out and he’ll be a buildling block in a majority of my lineups regardless of Ownership — Without Thomas, the other pass catchers should get a bump. Emmanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith and TE Jared Cook should all see a few extra looks. I’m expecting Emmanuel Sanders to be the guy the field flocks to — RB Latavius Murray could be a sneaky GPP option here, since we know Kamara will be very chalky. In large field tourneys, if you were to roster Murray over Kamara, and then Murray runs in a few 1 yard TD’s you’ll get great leverage vs the field | |||||||||
| Stack Groups | |||||||||
| KC – Mahomes + at least 1 of Hill, Kelce + at least 1 of Kamara, Sanders, Smith, Cook | |||||||||
| NO – Brees + at least 1 of Kamara, Sanders, Smith, Cook + at least 1 of Hill, Kelce | |||||||||
