NFL Top Draftkings Plays for Week 18 Saturday 01/07/23
In the final week of the regular season, it is important to take into consideration how motivated teams may be for the playoffs when evaluating the slate of games. In this article, I will be discussing some of the top DraftKings plays for Week 18 in the NFL
The Kansas City Chiefs are still playing for the No. 1 seed, so they should be all-out to win against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have nothing to play for after being eliminated from playoff contention last week. The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars have everything to play for as the winner of that game will be crowned AFC South champion. Since the Raiders are the only team with no motivation, it might be best to avoid spending significant salary on their players and there’s a good chance I’ll be avoiding them as there are plenty of good options elsewhere.
When it comes to building lineups on two-game slates, it’s best to plan for specific game scripts, similar to how you would for single-game showdowns and then build lineups that fit them. Finding some leverage should be a priority, and it’s often easier to find because of all the chalk and condensed ownership.
NFL Week 18 Saturday 1/7/23
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) is a top value option for cash games. The Chiefs have a massive 31-point implied total. Mahomes has been excellent again this season and is the betting favorite to win MVP. In their previous meeting, Mahomes recorded four touchdowns and scored more than 30 fantasy points in Week 5.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence ($6,100) has been exceptional in his second year especially lately as Lawrence has recently guided the Jaguars on an impressive run that has them close to achieving an unlikely division title. In their last meeting, Lawrence had a standout performance against the Titans, throwing for 368 yards and three touchdowns in Tennessee. He also rushed for a score, totaling a season-high 36 fantasy points. He has big time upside at a nice $2,300 discount from Mahomes.
Stidham ($5,400) could be worth considering for large GPPs, as he’s unlikely to be a popular pick. In his first start last week, he demonstrated potential by throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the strong San Francisco 49ers defense. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has struggled to defend against quarterbacks, ranking 30th in the league and allowing multiple touchdowns in 13 games this season. This presents a good opportunity for Stidham, who has reliable receivers in Adams and Waller and a running back in Jacobs to keep the defense occupied and open up the field.
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Derrick Henry ($8,000) is a top option with Joshua Dobbs starting at quarterback. The Titans will likely lean on Henry as much as possible in their most important game of the season. He had a nice game against the Jaguars in Week 14, rushing for 121 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. He would’ve seen more carries had the Titans not been down 19 points heading into the fourth quarter. The decision to roster Henry might come down to how you think the game will go. When deciding whether to include Henry in your lineup, it’s important to consider the potential outcome of the game. Henry is a good option if you expect a competitive game, but he may not provide good value for his price if the Titans are behind.
The Titans have one of the best run defenses in football and did not allow a 100-yard rusher all season. Travis Etienne ($6,700) was held to 32 yards on 17 carries in the Week 14 matchup. Still, on a two-game slate where the Jaguars are substantial favorites and options are limited, he projects reasonably well for his salary. For Cash games, it might be worth fading Etienne in favor of the Jaguars’ passing game.
Jerick McKinnon ($6,300) has been a touchdown machine recently, with eight scores in his last five games. He has at least five catches in three of those games as the Chiefs continue to feature him heavily in the passing game. Either Kansas City running back is a good option considering their 31-point implied total. Pacheco ($5,600) is expected to receive a majority of the rushing attempts, potentially reaching up to 20+ if the Chiefs are up big in the 2nd half. In a game with a favorable outcome for the Chiefs, Pacheco has the potential to score multiple touchdowns
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It’ makes sense to have as much exposure as possible to the Jaguars’ pass-catchers on this slate in this matchup as the Tennessee Titans have struggled to defend wide receivers and have allowed the most fantasy points to the position
D.J. Chark ($6,600 has had an up-and-down season, but he’s coming off a strong performance in Week 16 he’s also seen at least eight targets in three of his last four games.
Christian Kirk ($6,200) may not be as popular as he should be, given his second-highest price among wide receivers and his recent mediocre performance. However, the past two games for the Jaguars can be disregarded, as starters were rested in the second half of the last game and the previous game was played in unfavorable weather conditions.
Marvin Jones ($5,500) may not be the most thrilling choice for the Saturday slate, but he’s worth considering due to the limited options of four teams. In the last three weeks, Jones has seen an increase in the number of times he has been targeted and has received a total of 17 targets. Additionally, his most recent performance was his best in terms of yardage since Week 5. Jones may have the opportunity to see high-quality targets and opportunities against the Titans’ vulnerable secondary.
Zay Jones ($5,000) is another player to consider for the Jaguars against the Titans. Ignoring the Jaguars’ two most recent games, Jones has been performing well. He had a standout outing in Week 15 against the Cowboys, recording 106 yards and three touchdowns. In the previous week, he caught eight of 12 targets for 77 yards against the Titans. Jones is likely to be a popular choice on Saturday and with good reason
One of the pivotal decisions on this slate is what to do with wide receiver Davante Adams ($8,800). He’s been a beast all season, leading the league in touchdowns, but he’s also the most expensive receiver on the board. If you can afford him, he’s a great option, especially in cash games. If you need to save salary, you’ll have to find value elsewhere.
Tight end is a tough position on this slate. Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce ($7,200) is the most expensive option, but he’s also the most reliable. He’s seen at least eight targets in five of his last six games and has a high ceiling.
Evan Engram ($5,800) is another option to consider for the Jaguars against the Titans. The Titans have a weak defense against wide receivers as we highlighted above and they are only slightly better against tight ends, ranking 29th against the position. Prior to last week, Engram had a successful three-game stretch, accumulating 337 yards and two touchdowns. Although he had a less impressive outing last week, the Titans’ vulnerable defense presents an opportunity for Engram to bounce back, especially with Lawrence’s solid performance at quarterback
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The Kansas City Chiefs ($4,700) and Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,400) are the top options at defense/special teams. The Chiefs have a high ceiling and a good matchup against the Raiders, while the Jags have a good matchup against the Titans and have shown the ability to create turnovers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense ($3,400) against the Titans, who are struggling and are expected to start Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. The Jaguars defense has been strong, only allowing six total points to the Jets and Texans in the past two weeks. They have scored at least 10 fantasy points on FanDuel in each of their last four games. The Jaguars have also been relatively effective against the run, only allowing the 13th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Given the Titans’ struggles and potential for turnovers and scoring opportunities, the Jaguars defense could be a good pick.