This is my NFL Week 1 DFS strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel. While it might slightly change once I begin to create my lineups, you’ll at least have the framework for how I plan to attack the slate. I will be using my Tiered Rankings to find my path. Be sure to tune into my live stream at 10:30 am ET via Twitch so that you can see my exposures for all positions across multiple sites.
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I really like that the prices are so different on both of the main websites this weekend because it will allow me to hedge my investments naturally across multiple platforms without trying to get any specific players on any specific sites. It just will happen due to projections and pricing on each site. On FanDuel, I am having a hard time not rolling with the cheaper quarterbacks for MME. There are so many fantastic stacking options. When looking at my Tiered Rankings, the entire Tier 2 range looks electric. If you drop down to Tier 3, it’s hard not to like some of the potential game stacks you are able to put together.
I will certainly have exposure to my only Tier 1 quarterback, Lamar Jackson, because there are so many cheap players on FanDuel due to the early pricing and injuries that have opened up the opportunity. If you plug in Jackson, I think many people will plug in Boston Scott and Marvin Jones Jr. as their next two players in SE or Cash lineups. Personally, I like the idea of locking all three of them in and crunching out a SE lineup. I think you can tweak things a bit by adding rules on Fantasy Cruncher as well to ask it to give you a QB + WR or TE stack for your SE or Cash build. I am not against Cash having a small stack.
For MME, I find it very interesting that the entire running back group in Tier 2 all basically has slate winning upside. Literally, almost every single one of them. This is probably the best place for MME because you are embracing the volatility of each and every one of them and at the same time, they all will be lower owned than what their potential probably is. The volatility is baked into the pricing – I want to eat that up. Again, similar to SE this week, there is just so much value I am not doing anything special to avoid chalkier options or elite players.
As we identified in the Fantasy Cruncher Lineup Study, you don’t have to avoid chalky players in Week 1 and you definitely don’t need to go out of your way to avoid chalk stacks. If it happens organically, fine. But we found that the most ideal scenario is to just approach the slate with the mindset of building the very best lineups you can and not worrying about the rest.
There are a few players I am in love with on DraftKings. The first, and I promise this is no homerism, is Josh Allen. My word is he just screaming value. Not only is he surrounded by an improved offensive cast but he’s now had another season under his belt and one where we saw him average just under 20 DK points per game. In fact, if you take away Week 17 where he only threw 5-passes before resting to ensure health for the playoffs, Josh Allen scored 19.32 or more DraftKings points in 10-of-17 games. Oh, and if you’re thinking that really isn’t that safe, I should tell you he scored 17.36 or more in 6-of-7. Long story short, just once last year did he score less than 17.36. I figured I’d say that multiple ways for you to comprehend just how consistent he was. I don’t mind him as a pay down option in cash games if you’re trying to fit in Christian McCaffrey.
I also like Trubisky quite a bit. Yes, that Mitchell Trubisky. And no, it’s not because his name is Mitchell. But if his name was Mitchell and he was bald, well, all bets are off. He’s cheap and he has two nice wide receivers to stack with. You can also run it back with players like TJ Hockenson and Marvin Jones Jr. Also, he’s absolutely dismantled the Lions in his short career thus far. While he isn’t the cash option that Josh Allen might be if you’re trying to save money, he slides right in there as a very volatile MME or GPP target alone side of players like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Baker Mayfield. By the way, upload our projections in Fantasy Cruncher and run out some stacks that center around Baker and Trubisky. I think you’ll like what you see on DraftKings. Salary relief and stacking upside combined with mispriced talent at the other positions led to some nice looking builds.
SE wise, I likely will create some type of optimal lineup build. I’ll probably roll out a variation of Josh Allen in that SE lineup, too. That means I’ll trust our projections, lock him in when in Fantasy Cruncher, and set a rule or two with a couple of other one-off type players and crunch. The projections have been so spot on across so many sports so far that I have no other reason but to trust these, too.
Make sure you use the Tiered Rankings, Scrosby’s Cash Pool and Notes, TMay’s SE Pool and notes, and of course your Fantasy Cruncher access with our killer projections off of the Study Hub.
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