Hello and welcome to the Week 14 Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Strategy Guide. This week we’re transition to a bit of a different format. Instead of three separate articles, we’re rolling them into one strategy guide for the week. I’ll dive into Cash, GPPs, and Game Stacks. Let’s get into it!
We have a full slate of stud quarterbacks this week with no teams on byes. My favorite heading into the weekend is A-a-ron Rodgers. He projects as a top-three quarterback according to the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. Over the course of the last four weeks, only two quarterbacks have outscored Rodgers (Mahomes and Watson). He does have a plus matchup facing a middling pass defense.
Last Sunday against the Patriots was an absolute disaster for the Chargers. Game log watchers will look at Ekelers 10.80 DraftKings points and gloss right over him. He only rushed the ball eight times as the game got out of hand rather quickly, but what most will fail to see is the nine targets. While Atlanta gives up the second least fantasy points to the running back position, I think Ekeler bounces back in a big way.
This play is going to be dependent on the status of Antonio Gibson. Gibson left Monday’s game against the Steelers early due to a toe injury. In Gibson’s absence, McKissic was a target monster. He caught all 10 of his targets for 70 yards. Back in weeks 9 and 10, we’ve seen the type of ceiling games McKissic can have with Captain Checkdown, I mean, Alex Smith under center.
Boyd was ejected prematurely in the Bengals game against the Dolphins this past Sunday. Prior to his ejection, he brought in one of four targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. This week the Bengals will face a Cowboys defense that allows the most fantasy points to wideouts. In reviewing the NFL Study Hub we can see that Boyd has averaged over 7 targets over the last four weeks accounting for a 21.48% market share of the teams’ targets.
This may be a cop-out play but when you play a quarterback that has the highest ceiling and floor on the slate you play him. Over the last four weeks, no quarterback has scored more fantasy points at the quarterback position than Mahomes. Our NFL Study Hub projects him to be the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate.
Jones projects as a top 5 scoring back on the slate according to the NFL Study Hub. Jones does have more than a few things going in his favor. Jones and the Packers have the highest implied team total this week at 31.25 points. Jones also gets to face a Detroit Lions run defense that made David Montgomery look like a competent back. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to running backs.
If you’re running out Mahomes, we’re stacking him with one of the hottest receivers in the league. While he did have a down game last weekend against Denver he had one touchdown called back due to a penalty and another one called incomplete that was not challenged that he ended up catching. Over the last four weeks, Hill has out-targeted and out-scored every other receiver in the league.
Gesicki is coming off his best game with rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as the starter. Gesicki saw 11 targets go his way bringing in nine of them for 88 yards. He’s scored touchdowns in two straight games. If we play game theory here, we are assuming the Dolphins are playing from behind and will have to throw the ball to keep the game competitive.
Kansas City Chiefs
There’s not a lot to be said that hasn’t been said throughout the course of this season. This offense has so much firepower it’s almost unfair. They have the best quarterback in the league, one of the best receivers in Tyreek Hill, and arguably the best tight end in Travis Kelce. The Chiefs rank as the top stacks in our NFL Study Hub.
On paper, the Seahawks have a better matchup than the Chiefs. The Seahawks face a Jets defense that seems to be tanking for Trevor Lawrence especially after that call on Sunday to close out yet another loss to the Raiders. Russell Wilson has slowly lost some steam as the season has progressed but he faces a Jets defense that allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
D.K. Metcalf is Wilson’s primary target. Metcalf is a freak of nature with his size and athleticism making him a matchup nightmare for any defense. Tyler Lockett has been quiet lately, yet is still averaging the same amount of targets as Metcalf over the last four weeks. I wouldn’t be opposed to double stacking Wilson with his two wideouts.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers will face off against a bad Detroit Lions defense. The Packers have the highest implied team total on the slate and most of those points will start with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I won’t dive too deep into Rodgers or Aaron Jones as we’ve touched on them earlier in the strategy guide.
However, I do want to write about Davante Adams. In reviewing the NFL Study Hub we see that he’s averaging over 10 targets a game over the last four weeks accounting for a whopping 32.03% target share of the Packers targets. In that same time span, he’s scoring 25.40 DraftKings points only being outscored by Tyreek Hill and Adam Thielen,
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