NFL Week 16 DraftKings Strategy Guide
Hello and welcome to the NFL Week 16 DraftKings Strategy Guide. This week we’re continuing the strategy guide format which will cover cash and tournament games for the main slates on Saturday and Sunday. As we enter the second to last week of what has been a crazy season, I look forward to finishing off strong right along the side of you!
In our cash games, I’m not looking for a 2% owned play that no one else is on. I want high floor plays, receivers who are getting 7+ targets, and running backs who rack up the touches (carries and receptions). Remember we need to beat only half the field, not everyone.
In tournaments, we want to seek out correlation. I want to stack my quarterback with one, even two pass catchers and to run it back with a receiver on the opposing team. It is here where we can run out that 2% owned play in hopes of shooting to the top of the leaderboards and taking down a big one.
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Saturday is a small three-game slate with games spread out over the whole day. Each game has a potential impact on the playoffs so expect each team to put their best foot forward to maintain position to make the playoffs. There is still some news that we’ll need to monitor before making final lineup decisions.
Saturday Cash
Quarterback
Kyler Murray
Murray is the highest-rated and projected quarterback in our NFL Study hub. The Cardinals are only a game up on the Bears for the last wildcard spot in the NFC, so this is a must-win game. Murray will get to go against a 49er banged-up 49ers defense that has had trouble stopping mobile quarterbacks all season long. With tons of value on this slate and some soft pricing, I will be locking Kyler into my cash lineups without second thoughts.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette
Fournette was serviceable in filling in this past Sunday against the Falcons going 14/49/2. He also caught three of five balls thrown his way for 16 yards. In reviewing out NFL Study Hub we see that he’ll be going against the Lions’ defense that allows the most fantasy points to running backs. The Lions allow a slate high 137 rushing yards per game to opposing teams. Fournette also saw the goal line last Sunday banging in both of his touchdowns from one yard out.
Saturday GPP
Tom Brady
I love Brady to leverage Kyler Murray ownership. Brady’s Buccaneers have the highest implied team total on the slate at 31.5 points and will have the benefit of going against the bad Lions defense. In reviewing the NFL Study Hub, we see that Brady has averaged more DraftKings points over Kyler Murray over the last four weeks. Brady also projects to be one of the best value per dollar plays according to our model.
Kenyan Drake
I have a weird fascination with Drake. He helped me take down a tournament earlier in the season and he gets a ton of work in the Arizona offense. He’ll be another way to leverage Kyler and Hopkins ownership in tournaments. He’s averaging slightly above 18 touches over the last four weeks. If the 49ers can’t keep the game close, he will get even more work to keep the clock running.
Saturday Stacks
QB: Tom Brady
WR: Choose 1 or 2 – Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown
Opposing WR: Marvin Jones Jr
The Buccaneers game has the highest implied total on the slate. While the Lions defense is a sieve, the Buccaneers’ running game isn’t exactly world-class. I would look to leverage Cardinals stacks with Brady and two of his wideouts of your choosing and running it back with Stafford’s favorite target in Marvin Jones.
Sunday Cash
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield
Baker has been playing well as of late. In review of our NFL Study Hub, he’s averaging the third-most fantasy points over the last 4 weeks, being outscored by only Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. This week he’ll face a Jets team coming off its first win of the season. The Jets defense is a pass funnel allowing the most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks but is tough against the run allowing the 6th least fantasy points to running backs. To keep pace in the AFC playoff race they’re going to have to perform.
David Montgomery
I feel dirty writing this. I’ve been down on Montgomery all season long but the last four weeks he’s been exceptional. During this time span, he’s outscored every other running back on the slate averaging nearly 29 DraftKings points per game. He’ll face a Jacksonville defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. Montgomery is projected to be the second-highest scoring running back on the slate.
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Sunday GPP
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson
Naked Lamar? Get your mind out of the gutter. Lamar has come on as of late averaging over 31 DraftKings points over the last four weeks, outscoring every other quarterback on the slate in that time frame. The Ravens are in a must-win position as they are on the outside of the playoffs looking in, as they are currently the 8th seed. I don’t see the need to pair Lamar with any of his receivers as they have not helped Lamar with their case of the dropsies this season.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill
Surprise! Another Chiefs player in the tournaments section – can you blame me though? He’s option 1A or 1B, whichever way you want to slice it, it’s between him and Travis Kelce. Tyreek has been a target hog, averaging nearly 11 targets a game over the last four weeks. The Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the main slate at 32.75 points. I always want a part of the Chiefs’ highly potent offense.
Sunday Stacks
Kansas City Chiefs
QB – Patrick Mahomes
Pass Catcher – Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce
Opposing WR: Calvin Ridley
Our Twitch streams with Team Rise or Fall Founder @DFSnDonuts has shown that upside to stacking the best quarterback on the slate. It’s proven time and time again that it’s a winning strategy. If it isn’t broke don’t try to fix it!
Houston Texans
QB – Deshaun Watson
WR – Brandin Cooks
Opposing WR – Tyler Boyd
The NFL Study Hubs Stack Tab loves the Texans’ offense this week against a weak Bengals defense. Watson has been excellent since Bill O’Brian’s firing. The Texans have the 5th highest implied team total on the slate. While I’m not overly confident in Ryan Finley’s quarterbacking ability the Texans’ defense is far from elite and should give him opportunities to make some plays in the passing game to Tyler Boyd.
Questions or comments?
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