The NFL Week 3 DFS Review for DraftKings and FanDuel will make you wish you had a DeLorean so you could back in time, change your picks, and win a Milly. Unfortunately, that’s not how life works. We take our bumps, evaluate our process, and move forward. That’s my plan here. Go over my picks, understand how I got there, and try to understand what went right or wrong. As we maneuver through this wild season we want to analyze our process so we can improve our game in the long run. Remember, DFS is a marathon, not a sprint.
Vegas sure does see fireworks this weekend. Of the thirteen games on Sunday’s main slate, only four are projected for a game total under 45. Even the Titans/Vikings game has reached 49 ½ (for the record that feels like a total trap game). The highest implied totals on the slate reside in the Seahawks/Cowboys and Lions/Cardinals matchups. These games are going to hold a ton of ownership and for good reason. Three QBs in these games rank in the top 5 of Draftkings QBs, Russell Wilson (2), Dak Prescott (4), and Kyler Murray (5). While attention will be concentrated on these three players I believe that their pricing (Wilson – $7300, Prescott – $7200, and Murray – $6800) will help flatten ownership. I can’t see them exceeding more 20% ownership especially in tournaments and even that is pushing it.
This brings me to Stafford and his generous price coupled with the fact that his first two games of the season have been less than impressive. But I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt considering his start to the season has come without alpha Wide Receiver, Kenny Golladay. Well that ALL changes this week and I for one am excited. Golladay is FINALLY slated to be back and that is great news for this offense in this potential shootout. Worried about Patrick Peterson? Don’t be. Week 1 he faced a depleted Niners WR corps. Week 2, he got torched by Scary Terry McLaurin for a 7-125-1 line. The Cardinals are ranked 16th when it comes to pressure, per PFF and the Lions Offensive line is middling when it comes to not getting Stafford killed with a 5.9% adjusted sack rate, per Football Outsiders. Little pressure will help open things up for Stafford and with Golladay back the passing game will be able to fully utilize their aerial arsenal.
Stacking Options: The stacks are aplenty in this game and I want ALL the Lions. Okay, maybe not ALL the Lions. But give me a Stafford-Golladay-Hockenson double stack and run that baby back with Hopkins as the Cardinals alpha WR is sure to have a ton of ownership. Did I mention that last year in Hockenson’s rookie debut against the Cardinals he dropped 6-131-1? ALL.IN.
22-31 270yds 2TDs, 18.5 DKpts. Stafford didn’t blow the barn doors off with his alpha WR back but still produced a modest stat line. I actually considered redacting Stafford when it was reported that Golladay, himself, told reporters that he still wasn’t 100%. A limited Golladay could cap the upside of this stack. But I planted my flag and stuck with my pick. My hope was that the game would shootout but that did not come to fruition. Golladay had a decent stat line himself (7-57-1, 17.7 DK pts) in his 2020 debut. At the end of the day, this pick and stack did not pay off the way I was hoping they would. Better days are ahead for this duo. Stay tuned.
Last week I thought Nyheim Hines was the ultimate leverage play. It sure felt like it with so much ownership being concentrated on Jonathan Taylor. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. Ok, I’ll stop talking about Hines.
“Repress, replace, move on” – Douglas Fogerty, Single Parents (If you haven’t watched this show I highly recommend it).
For the record, A-A-RON Jones ended up as the ultimate leverage play and kudos if you played him. Taking a queue from last week I’m sticking with the leverage strategy. *stands on soapbox* I LOVE JAMES CONNER THIS WEEK! Seriously, I totally do. Let’s get into it. Back in week 1, we saw Conner play for like a minute, leave cause of injury, come back and then leave again. I don’t know about you guys but I was totally getting Ross and Rachel “will they, won’t they?” flashbacks. Is he hurt? Is he not hurt? All I know is Benny Snell ended the night with 19 carries for 113yds. The “Conner is injury prone” crowd were doing victory laps all over twitter. One week later the Snell honeymoon ended and Conner was back as the lead dog finishing with 16-106-1 and even got a couple of targets. Not only did Snell’s touches go down but he was out-snapped by Conner 77% to 15%. When Conner is healthy he is no doubt the main guy in this Steelers backfield. This should only add confidence to what we already know. The Steelers do not run an RBBC. They stick with a lead guy and don’t look back. Look for that to continue this week when the Steelers face a #bad Houston Texans team that is graded as third-worst against the run AND ninth-worst when it comes to tackling. Don’t forget CEH wrecked this team in his DEBUT, 25-138-1 and then FOUR Ravens backs combined for 13-128. Conner’s current ownership is hovering around 5% in the study hub. This is great news for a lead back who’s team is a home favorite against a team that can’t stop the run and when they try tackling are not very good at it. Do you want this week’s A-A-RON play? James Conner is right there. ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!
Stacking Options: I love the bring back option but I’m not loving the options on the Texans this week. So lets just double stack this one. The Texans weakness on the ground doesn’t mean they’re safe through the air. They didn’t exactly hold down Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, granted those guys are from a completely different planet. But stacking a low owned Ben with Conner and alpha WR Diontae Johnson will put you on the right side of leverage.
18-109-1, 4-40, 27.90 DK points. Pretty freaking good I’d say and EXACTLY what we were looking for in a core GPP play. Especially when the said player comes in at sub 8% ownership in the Milly Maker. All told he finished the day as the 5th best DK RB on the main slate. As suspected Conner held on to his “lead dog” status racking up twenty-two total touches. Posing no real threat rookie back Anthony McFarland and backup Benny Snell chipped in for seven touches a piece. Barring injury, this will be a great situation to target going forward. Next week the Steelers take on the Tennessee Titans who just got wrecked by Dalvin Cook. Conner’s price only went up to $200. You know what to do.
ARob has had an interesting start to the season. His first two games have been nothing to write home about finishing with 12.3 and 6.3 DKpts. At his price tag, you want more especially when the guy is the primary skill player on his team. But his QB is also Mitchell Trubisky, so we can give him a pass? I’m willing to ignore these games and remind myself that ARob is a superior talent at WR and better days are ahead. This Sunday can definitely kick start that. This week the Bears face an EXTREMELY bad Falcons defense. I’m not even talking about their “deer in headlights” moment that cost them last week’s game against the Cowboys (seriously, WTF was that?). Anyway, back to ARob. This Falcons secondary has been torched by enemy WRs. In week 1 Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf combined for 12-187-1 and then Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb dropped 12-206. Also working in Robinson’s favor is that he doesn’t have a Metcalf or Lamb to compete with for catches. You could say that Anthony Miller will stand to benefit as well. But I see this as the ultimate “get-right” spot for ARob. His price hasn’t moved, in fact dropping $300 from his opening day tag ($6500). The study hub currently has him projected to be around 15% owned. But that still feels low. I’m confidently going to roll with this alpha WR against a bad defense in a game where the Bears will most certainly have to play catch-up. Slot him in now, thank yourself later.
Stacking Options: Trubisky will get some run in GPPs and that’s more indicative of his price. I just don’t trust the guy even in large-field tourneys that run 150 LUs. Nah, I’m good. Just give me ARob as a core GPP play in my lineup. But you can add him to a Ryan/Ridley/Hurst stack where ARob is the bring back. I LOVE that option.
10-123-1, 31.3 DKpts. Things were looking rough in the early going as the Bears weren’t getting much done against the defense deficient Atlanta Falcons. Subtract pedestrian Mitch Trubisky, Insert Nick Foles, and FINALLY, we get the results we were hoping for. ARob was cooking once the former Super Bowl-winning QB came in to save the day. With Foles announced as the starting QB going forward look for more days ahead like this past Sunday. The Bears do host a top defense this week in the Indianapolis Colts. But with Foles as a better option under center Robinson has re-inserted himself as a matchup-proof WR1.
Thomas is a great bounce-back candidate this week as the Washington Football Team heads to Cleveland as (-7) road underdogs. Thomas was a popular week 2 DFS play after his opening day outing. But was shut down by the Cardinals defense finishing with a stat line of 4-26. It’s an encouraging sign that despite the down game Thomas still finished with nine targets. This week he gets to face a defense that has been lit up by opposing tight ends. Mark Andrews had a fantastic opening day against the Browns going 5-58-2 and last week the Bengals tight ends combined for 11-87-1. With Washington projected to trail in this game opportunity will continue to be there and help Thomas build upon the 17 targets he’s already received to start the season. Fire him up with confidence.
Stacking Options: Another spot where I’m not particularly feeling great about including this pick in a stack. A lot of that has to do with Washington’s team implied total being so low (18 ¾). Thomas is more of a core GPP guy that will save you money for other spots on your roster.
4-31. Not completely terrible. At his price, we’ll take what we can get. My hope was that with the Browns struggling against TEs Thomas would have a better day. But Dwayne Haskins has really struggled to get going which has had a major effect on the passing game. I’d like to remain optimistic about Thomas since its still early in the season. But tough matchups are on the horizon, week 4 Washington get Baltimore (YIKES!). It doesn’t even matter that his price dropped $100. This is a situation to avoid for now.
Remember, “Trust the Process” and we’re on to Week 4!