The NFL Week 4 DFS Review for DraftKings and FanDuel will make you wish you had a DeLorean so you could back in time, change your picks, and win a Milly. Unfortunately, that’s not how life works. We take our bumps, evaluate our process, and move forward. That’s my plan here. Go over my picks, understand how I got there, and try to understand what went right or wrong. As we maneuver through this wild season we want to analyze our process so we can improve our game in the long run. Remember, DFS is a marathon, not a sprint.
I was going back and forth on this one since news hit about COVID affecting players and organization members from the Titans and Vikings. We’re going to keep the ball rolling with this one. Mainly because I’m very excited about this matchup, it’s total (54.5, second-highest on the slate), and the possibility that Watson won’t garner a ton of ownership. Let’s get into it!
It’s been a rough few weeks for the Texans QB who has faced the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. All tough matchups in their own right and yet still finishing with Draftkings points of 21.8, 15.7, and 18.1. NOW the time has come for Watson to “get right” and he’s getting a Minnesota Defense that has been a shell of itself to start the season. They were rocked by Aaron Rodgers in week one but held Philip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill “in check”. But the Colts ran all over Minnesota and the Titans were without AJ Brown. What did Davante Adams do to this defense in week one? 14-156-2. Aaron Rodgers? 32-44 364-4. Watson will be the first dual-threat QB the Vikings face this season. They’re already susceptible to run games ranking bottom ten by Football Outsiders. Will Fuller is the best WR they will have faced since Adams. This has all the ingredients of an offensive explosion for the Texans and due to recency and injury bias, on Fuller, I don’t expect this team to be highly owned. Both Watson and Fuller are currently projected for sub 10% ownership in the study hub. The game total has already moved up three points. Vegas is expecting fireworks. Watson and company are brimming with upside. This is the perfect opportunity to target the Texans QB.
Stacking Options: I hinted at this stack earlier and I love this game all around. When you consider what Watson can do with his arms and legs he’s severely underpriced. Couple that with Will Fuller being underpriced ($5900) and you get access to a high upside stack. I love Thielen this week since people MIGHT be on Jefferson in hopes that he repeats last week’s performance.
Narrator: He won’t.
The Titans were without their top two cornerbacks last week and had to deal with stopping Dalvin Cook. Emphasizing “trying” to stop Cook AND rolling coverage towards Thielen opened up a massive opportunity for Jefferson. Using Thielen as a bring back option, in this stack, will help you gain massive leverage which is exactly what you want in GPPs. Give COVID the middle finger and fire up what should be a high scoring game stack.
A friggin disaster. That’s what happened. The Texans looked terrible during the first half. Then Watson FINALLY hit Will Fuller for a 24yd TD early in the third. Watson finished with a total of 23.90 DK pts and stacking him with Fuller (25.80 DKpts) paid off. But let’s not get too excited. We wanted A LOT MORE. I’m going to be greedy here because we paid down for his upside and in GPPs that’s exactly what we were looking for. We got a floor game from him which is fine if you’re playing cash games. But this was disappointing. Maybe I’m still tilted from being overweight on Brandin Cooks *cries in silence*. Hey, I did take my advice and used Watson/Fuller stacks in a few lineups (keyword: few). But the Texans as a whole looked bad and that was only punctuated when ownership FINALLY gave Bill O’Brien the boot Monday afternoon. His mismanagement as a coach and GM are finally gone but his stench will sadly linger as his managerial moves set this franchise back years. But I digress. This team is headed nowhere fast and this past Sunday was a good indicator of what we have to look forward to. The Texans will have spiked weeks and we’ll still pay attention. But unfortunately, this is a situation we probably want to avoid till the matchup is just right. Ironically, that matchup was supposed to be this one.
Taylor underperformed last week. Bad news if you used him. But great news for us as he’s another “bounce back” candidate in a solid matchup where ownership shouldn’t be crazy (projected for sub 10% ownership). That includes his price drop from $7000. The Bears have struggled to hold opposing backs this season. Last week they were shredded by Todd Gurley AND Brian Hill for a combined 23-138-2. In week 2 Saquan Barkley’s injury forced him to leave early but he was averaging 7.0ypc before he got hurt. Week one the corpse of Adrian Peterson rumbled to a total of 14-93. Ninety-three freaking yards from a guy who just got cut a week before the season started. The Colts are a (-2.5) road favorite against a rejuvenated Bears team that now has a competent QB. But the total on this game still sits under 45 (and is falling). I’m trusting the Colts to go right back to the rookie in a game they should have no problem controlling. His touch count went down from 28 to 14 last week with Hines and Wilkins getting a little more involved. But they will only be used in specific situations. Taylor through three weeks is averaging 19.0 touches a game which is ten more than Hines. Taylor is going to get consistent usage and at a depressed price makes for a great GPP play. Fire him up with full confidence.
Stacking options: This is going to be a tricky situation as I think there are a couple of different things you could do. Taylor and INDY’s DST make for a good pairing. But a better way of playing this is to go with a “skinny stack” of Taylor-Allen Robinson. The Colts defense is still very good and while Foles makes the passing game better I think he’ll still have a rough go of it on Sunday. This will only help us gain leverage on a RB who won’t be highly owned and a WR people will be too scared to touch due to a perceived tough matchup. Strategize, implement, execute!
I remember writing this out and thinking “this could either be extremely boring and bad or a slate breaking leverage play”. *laughs* Good god did I get this one wrong. This game ended up being boring in general and outside of ARob *pats self on back with sad face* didn’t produce anything for anyone. Hines and Wilkins ended up with a decent amount of work going 12 to 10 with their touch share while Taylor ended up with 18 total. Just when it felt like Taylor may start to get more of the lion share of work the Colts spread the wealth. It’s starting to feel like the gap between all these backs is closing. Maybe I’m wrong (I was here) but I’m not feeling confident rostering Taylor in DFS, for now. Unless a major injury rears its ugly head in I don’t see Taylor pulling away in this backfield. The Colts are a run-first team and are quite content running a full three-headed monster that works just fine for real-life football. But does no favors for those of us playing fantasy.
Paying down for a cheap WR is going to be a popular tactic this week. There are a lot of guys worth rostering in tournaments. This is why I like going to Renfrow in a HOPEFULLY not too popular spot (He’s currently projected for sub 5% ownership). A big reason for that is because we just watched the Chiefs rip up the Ravens with Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins. Both guys come in at $300 and $400 cheaper than Renfrow and were on the national stage last Monday Night. So that will help drive their ownership up. People looking for a repeat performance are forgetting Watkins and Hardman are third and fourth options in that offense. Meanwhile, Renfrow will benefit from something we should ALWAYS be looking for. OPPORTUNITY. Bryan Edwards has been ruled out and Henry Ruggs is looking like a long shot to play. It’s going to be the Darren Waller/Renfrow show for week 4. Also of note, the Bills have been getting wrecked by enemy slot receivers. Allowing Jameson Crowder (7-115-1), Isaiah Ford (7-76), and Cooper Kupp (9-107-1) to carve them up. Renfrow will have plenty of opportunities in a game where the Raiders will have to keep up with MVP candidate Josh Allen. Last week in a full-time role Renfrow got nine targets and finished with a line of 6-84-1. That’s the slate breaker potential we’re looking for. Not to mention that the Raiders will need that kind of production, in general, to keep up with MVP candidate Josh Allen.
Stack Options: I’m not a fan of playing David Carr in DFS. But stacking him with Renfrow is an option. However, I’m sticking to the high powered offense of the Bills in this one. Stack Allen, Stefon Diggs and bring it back with Renfrow. Watch the money print itself.
I wanted this to work out. I saw Renfrow as a potential afternoon hammer. Slate breaker was too ambitious. But he had the potential/opportunity to do enough to push you over the top in tournaments. If things worked out. He ended up with a 5-57 line on eight targets (10.70 DKpts). It’s not terrible given his price. Plus, he was second on the team in targets. But a TD and catching all eight of targets could have moved you up significantly in GPPs. His biggest contribution came on a beautiful 37yd catch which unfortunately led to a David Carr fumble turning the ball back over to Buffalo. Opportunity wasted. Ugh. The Raiders comeback attempt fell short and so did any chance of Renfrow producing as a DFS late-game hammer. Renfrow may be useful again at some point. But that’s based strictly on Ruggs and Bryan Edwards availability which is still up in the air. Stay tuned on this situation for week 5.
I don’t think many people expected the Ravens to get blown out Monday Night by the Chiefs. The closest they got was on a 93yd kick return by Devin Duvernay which cut the lead to 13-10. It was all Kansas City after that. But this is the kind of thing we can use to gain leverage on a team that the public got to watch first hand. People won’t want to pay up for pricey Lamar Jackson or his other offensive skill players whose prices didn’t move because they played on MNF. But, I’m bullish on the Ravens in a spot where they could will make Washington pay for what the Chiefs did. Washington allows the sixth-most points to TEs and they just lost two of their best pieces on the defensive line, Chase Young and Matt Ioannidis. This isn’t the same line we saw wreaking havoc. They’re about to come back down to earth in a big way and facing Baltimore has all the makings of a blood bath. Andrews struggled on Monday but is still tied for fourth in red-zone targets amongst TEs. Positive regression is in his favor and opportunity will be present this week against a struggling Washington football team. Wheels up on Andrews!
Stacking Option: Okay so that was supposed to be all about TE and how much I love Andrews. But I’m crazy about this spot for the Ravens offense. Stack Lamar with Andrews. That will be one of my main plays this weekend. You can even double stack it with Marquise Brown. Maybe even bring it back with Terry Mclaurin. But I don’t think it’s necessary. The Ravens will be locked in on Sunday. Make sure you have LJax and Andrews rocking your lineup when everyone else will be running away.
Well, it’s nice to get one right. Andrews bounced back going 3-57-2 on three targets finishing with 20.70 DK pts which topped all TEs on the main slate. Not too shabby. The one concern you could argue with is that he only got THREE targets. It doesn’t bother me. The Ravens didn’t have to do much to keep the hapless Washinton football team in check. Lamar did Lamar things and Baltimore ran a good aerial/ground game which kept Andrews from having a bigger day. Translation, they didn’t need him to do much in a game they controlled from the get-go. His 2TDs were enough and his line was exactly what we were looking for at a position that didn’t produce much. Andrews will still be useful going forward and his price tag will make sure to keep his ownership down.
Remember, “Trust the Process” and we’re on to Week 5!