Hello and welcome to the Team Rise or Fall Week 8 GPP picks. Tournament plays are going to differ from typical cash games plays. We’re looking for correlation, stacking our quarterback with one or two of his pass-catchers and even having a secondary stack to run it back.
I know Mahomes made it in my cash write-up but, this is a smash spot where he may very well erupt. Mahomes is the engine that drives the offense, and even in a blowout, he can put up big numbers as we saw many times last season. The Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub projects him as the highest scoring QB on the slate.
The NFL Study Hub’s Gameflow tab tells us Baker is in another prime spot this week. The Raiders rank in the bottom third of the league in fantasy points allowed. He’s coming off a 5 touchdown game and people will want to ride the hot hand going into this week.
Taylor is fresh off the Colts bye week. He’s going against the porous run defense of the Detroit Lions. Before the Colts by week Taylor was averaging 16 touches per game. The Lions are giving up the 4th most points to the running back position and giving up over 131 rushing yards per game.
Jacobs will be a contrarian play due to the nature of the DraftKings scoring system (PPR). However, he’s been consistently seeing 3 to 4 targets every game. The Browns are middle of the pack when it comes to allowing fantasy points to running backs but, with one of the highest totals on the slate, I’m comfortable with the role Jacobs has to help take down a GPP.
Hill has yet to have that explosive game where he goes absolutely nuts, as a matter of fact, he hasn’t gone over 100 yards receiving this season. He’s responsible for 20.66% of the Chiefs’ target market share. I’m looking for a breakout this week. If you’re running out Mahomes, you’re going to want to stack him with Hill.
If you’re rolling out Baker Mayfield, you’re going to want to stack him with one of his wide receivers and Landry would be my choice. This is a site-specific play due to DraftKings being a PPR site. We know there are going to be more targets to go around with the absence of OBJ. I would expect an increase in his 21.85% target share.
Kittle is the second-highest projected scoring tight end on the slate in the NFL Study Hub. I do expect him to carry less ownership than Travis Kelce who is in a fantastic spot as we’ve touched on in other parts of this writeup. Kittle is Jimmy G’s main target in the passing game garnering 10 targets a game over the last 4 weeks accounting for a team target share of 30.08%. Don’t be afraid to pay up to be contrarian in this spot.
This isn’t a sexy play by any stretch of the imagination, but we have a narrative going into this one. Brady and Gronk have tied with Steve Young and Jerry Rice for second all-time in quarterback pass-catcher touchdowns. It will also help that the Bucs are without O.J. Howard who tore his Achilles and Chris Godwin who broke a finger last weekend and had surgery during the week. One would expect his 16.23% target share increase this week.
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