PGA DFS: Course Preview for The BMW Championship 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. So make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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This week we enter the 2nd leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, except for this week, we’ll be in Maryland for the BMW Championship. The top 70 in the FedEx Cup Standings will be present, minus Patrick Reed, who I will keep in my prayers. I just finished that battle myself and wouldn’t wish that on my worst enemy.
This week we will be at Caves Valley Golf Club, which has hosted the 2017 Senior Players Championship, the 2002 U.S. Senior Open, and the 2007 Arnold Palmer Cup, so professionals like Webb Simpson, Chris Kirk, Brian Harman, and Billy Horschel will have the most experience. However, if you’re looking forward to course history, look elsewhere because we will have little to none.
Caves Valley Golf Club is 7500 yards, par 72, played on Bentgrass greens designed by Tom Fazio in 1991 while renovated last year by Logan Fazio. There are five holes with water in play and a fescue/ryegrass/bluegrass rough sitting at 3″. A few additional notes – New championship tees were built to extend the length of the course, and fairway landing areas have been tightened to approximately 25 yards in width. The number of bunkers has been reduced, while the square footage of bunker space has remained the same.
- Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Birdie or Better
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Justin Thomas ($11,600) – I think this is the Justin Thomas we’ve all been waiting for, and he showed up for The Northern Trust. He gained nearly ten total strokes. And although his Around The Green game was not superb, that part of his game is usually pretty good. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – JT is ranked 3rd at Approach, 4th T2G, 9th in Birdies, and 22nd Around The Green.
- Louis Oosthuizen ($10,600) – So does Finau wining bring some light to Oosty? Can we say Oosty won’t be runner-up this week? Oosty, the robot man, has taken off two weeks in a row since absolutely killing it in the last eight events. He’s placed 17th at WGC, 2nd at 3M Open, 3rd at Open Championship, 2nd U.S. Open, 18th at Memorial, 2nd at PGA Championship, 8th at Valspar, and 2nd at Zurich. Step aside – we have a new winner here.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Rory McIlroy ($9,400) – I think it’s very unusual for Rory to repeat the same terrible performance he had on Friday. Rory lost nearly five strokes on Approach and in Ball Striking while also losing over three strokes T2G. Even after all that, he still managed to gain almost two total strokes for The Northern Trust. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Rory is ranked 2nd in Driving Distance, 5th Off The Tee, 9th Tee to Green, and 13th in Birdies.
- Scottie Scheffler ($8,900) – Scottie is someone that needs to be watched – he can blow up out of nowhere, and let us not forget that he plays very well under challenging events. This season Scottie has placed 14th at WGC, 8th at The Open Championship, 7th at U.S. Open, 3rd at Memorial, and 8th at PGA Championship.
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Corey Conners (1.2X) – Hey, it’s still Corey Conners season, and he’s still been on a tear! Besides placing 8th last week at The Northern Trust, he has been on fire. Check out his recent form: 36th at WGC, 13th at the Olympics, 15th Open Championship, MC at U.S. Open, 53rd at Memorial, 20th at Charles Schwab, and 17th at PGA Championship. Lastly, on the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Corey is ranked 7th OTT, 8th at APP, 9th in Driving Accuracy, 10th T2G & Total Driving, and 37th Birdie or Better.
- Charley Hoffman (1.3X) – We aren’t expecting a T10 from Hoffman at The Open Championship or the U.S. Open, but a top 20 isn’t something rare that Charley can’t produce. Let’s not forget Charley has made ten top 25s this year.
PGA Dark Horse Target
- Russell Henley ($9,100/$7,800) – I mentioned Russell at Wyndham how I thought everyone went quiet on a player that missed the cut at The Open Championship after destroying the weeks before. Well, I feel the same way here. Sure, Henley lost six strokes at putting, but that’s the MOST he’s lost this season. I like to see a bounce back here with how cheap he is on DraftKings.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All are categorized on which player I like and in what format. For example, cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.