PGA DFS: Course Preview for The Butterfield Bermuda Championship 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. So make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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We finally leave the “no cut” life and head over to Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Now initially, I really thought this was only an alternative event, but I had forgotten that it is now an entire FedEx Cup event. Did I mention the weak field we’re about to have? Yea, it’s not pretty. Defending champion Brian Gay returns to defend his title along with notable names like Patrick Reed, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Danny Willet join us this week.
Port Royal GC is 6800 yards; par 71 played on Bermuda Greens. The GCSAA hasn’t released their tournament sheet yet, so I don’t have the specifics of sand traps and the rough, but I can tell you that the past winners here are Brian Gay and Brendon Todd. What does that tell you? Well, these guys exhibit Off The Tee Accuracy and are fantastic Putters. However, there’s a big difference in how each won. Brendon Todd was the first winner with 24 under (easy conditions – no weather conditions), and Brian Gay won it at 15 under (moderate to high wind conditions). So as we get closer to the day, it’s essential that we check the weather conditions. This being a short coastal course, I will be using courses like Corales Punta Cana, Pebble Beach, Sony Open, and the Mayakoba Golf Classic.
- Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
- Strokes Gained: Driving Accuracy Percentage
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Birdies or Better
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Mito Pereira ($11,600) – I told ya guys. I’m going to keep playing Mito until he wins and then some. Here’s one thing to note – Mito hasn’t lost a stroke in Off The Tee, Approach, Ball Striking, and Tee To Green since the beginning of the 2022 season. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Mito is ranked 1st Tee To Green, 1st in Ball Striking, 2nd at Approach, 3rd in Birdies, and 4th Off The Tee in the last 24 rounds.
- Seamus Power ($11,500) – I feel like this is your pivot off Mito if you’re looking for it. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s a bad play at all. Seamus has played here twice and has had top 40 finishes, but there is one thing to note. Throughout those two years, Seamus was ranked 446 in 2019 and 429 in 2020. As of 2021, Seamus is ranked 105. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Seamus is ranked 1st in Birdies, 4th Tee To Green, 10th in Putting, 16th in Ball Striking, 17th in Driving Accuracy, and 18th Off The Tee.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Russell Knox ($7,700) – It’s somewhat crazy how far you have to drop to find some good value. I believe Knox is way too cheap for someone that is usually pretty good on shorter courses. If we take a look at his performance in courses shorter than 7000 yards, he placed 7th at At&T Pebble Beach (2021), 16th at Bermuda Championship (2020), 11th at Bermuda (2019), and 21st at Travelers (2019). Knox is ranked 7th at Approach, 11th in Ball Striking, 17th in Tee To Green, 10th in Driving Accuracy, and 34 Off The Tee on the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model.
- Nick Taylor ($7,400) – It’s very unusual to be talking about golfers like this (lol). Alright, so with Nick Taylor, it’s probably best to avoid looking at his recent form. I know as I’m typing this, I’m also questioning myself. But in all seriousness, Nick isn’t someone you’re looking for in recent form. He can go from missing the cut to being on the first page of the leaderboard. However, here is something you can use. Over the last few years, here is what Nick has done on shorter courses – 39th at Pebble Beach (2021), 1st at Pebble Beach (2020), 71st at Travelers (2019), 27th at RBC Canadian Open (2019), 28th at Pebble Beach (2019).
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Mark Hubbard (1.2X) – Hubbard is a name I very much like in this field. Let’s begin with the stat I have been using with all the other golfers. Hubbard on short courses – 13th at Travelers (2021), 55th at Pebble Beach (2021), 37th at Travelers (2020), and 41st at Bermuda (2019). Not numbers that make you go wild for Hubbard, but on the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Hubbard is ranked 6th Tee To Green, 9th Around The Green, 10th at Approach, 12th in Driving Accuracy, 14th in Birdies, and 24th at Putting.
PGA Dark Horse Target
- Hank Lebioda ($9,400 FD/$7,500) – Last season Hank was the talk of the PGA world with several top 10 finishes, and since then, he’s just been a miss cut machine. His recent form is terrible, so don’t even bother looking at that, but hey, this is the Dark Horse section. What I do like about Hank is that he performs exceptionally well on shorter courses. Hank has placed 5th at Travelers (2021), 39th at Pebble Beach (2021), 16th at Bermuda (2020), 41st at Travelers (2020), and 3rd at Bermuda (2019). If he were to turn it around, it would be here – a course that has done him well.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, Approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational from left to right and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All are categorized on which player I like and in what format. For example, cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you with all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.