PGA DFS: Course Preview for The Fortinet Championship 2021 on DraftKings, and FanDuel
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, and FanDuel. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. So make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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And we’re back! Not gonna lie. An extra week or two wouldn’t have hurt ;). This week we commence the 2021-2022 season at Fortinet Championship. What is that? Let’s just call it the Safeway Open. Anyway – we will have a FULL field again of 152 golfers with regular rules applying as usual; top 65 and ties play the weekend. Jon Rahm will lead the field, who is probably using this event to warm up before the Ryder Cup.
Silverado CC (North) is a par 72, 7200 yards, played on Poa/Bentgrass greens. This will be the 7th year in a row that we will be teeing it up at Silverado, so we have decent history here. There are a few things I’ll be eyeing for this event, and that guy’s with good records at west coast events with similar green types (Riviera, Torrey Pines, and Pebble). And if you take a look at the tournament history and see who has had the most success at Silverado over the years and checked the most important stat, you would see that Approaching The Green is the number one answer. But, let’s not forget about our pal – Off The Tee. OTT will be reasonably significant this week – if you’re able to avoid those doglegs and drive the ball above TOUR average, you might finish round one at six-under as those four par 5s at Silverado are the most accessible holes on the course and they fall in the 550-600 yard mark. Can someone call Bryson over? Haha – onto the picks!
- Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Birdie or Better
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Jon Rahm ($12,500) – There should be no reason why you would fade Rahm unless it’s for a large GPP tournament. I want to say Rahm had the best season of his career last season, which is only a week old (lol). On the Rise or Fall Important Stats model – Rahm is ranked 1st T2G, 1st in Driving, 2nd OTT, 2nd in Birdie or Better, and 8th at Approach. Rahm has an arsenal of weapons and brings all the tools he needs to dominate the competition. He’s also played here back in 2017 and finish 15th. But this is a whole different Rahm – this is prime Rahm; Rhambo.
- Webb Simpson ($11,800) – This is your pivot off Rahm if you NEED it. Webb finished the season the same way he started the season – on fire. Placing 12th at the BMW Championship, 47th at Northern Trust, 7th at Wyndham, and 15th at WGC. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Webb is ranked 2nd in Driving Efficiency, 8th in Birdies, 10th ARG, 22nd in Putting, 30th T2G, and 38th at Approach.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Sebastian Munoz ($9,200) – Seabass finished the season absolutely killing it. Placed 29th at BMW Championship, 21st at Northern Trust, 29th at Wyndham, 4th at The Olympics, and 4th and John Deere. All while gaining over 3.62 strokes on Approach. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Seabass is ranked 32nd in Birdies, 44th in Driving, 64th at Approach, 74th OTT, and 77th T2G.
- Charley Hoffman ($8,800) – Have you forgotten what a fantastic year Hoffman had last season? Let me remind you: four top 10’s, four top 20’s, and two top 30’s. All while sitting in that 7k-8k range. Sure, Hoffman didn’t finish as strong as some of the other guys I talked about, but these are the events that we play Hoffman at. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Hoffman is ranked 16th at Approach, 22nd in Birdies, 24th T2G, 25th OTT, and 43rd in Putting.
PGA Dark Horse Target
- Mito Pereira ($8,000DK/$9,900) – Now that we’ve started a new season, I feel like a lot of names are going to be forgotten, and that’s including Mito. Let me help you out. Before Mito got his card, he was destroying it on the Korn Ferry Tour. He won twice and had three top 10’s as well. Then he made his way to the PGA. And he came in with a mission – besides missing the cut at Wyndham, he placed the following: 39th at Barracuda, 4th at the Olympics, 6th at 3M Open, and 5th at Barbasol. All while gaining strokes in almost all categories. This new season I’m sure Mito will become a popular name just like Big Will.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All are categorized on which player I like and in what format. For example, cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.