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PGA DFS: Course Preview for The John Deere Classic 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. So make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.

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Course Preview

We escape Detriot with an unusual threesome playoff with our winner Cam Davis. To be honest, I didn’t catch much of it as it was pretty uneventful, especially with Bryson missing the cut (insert angry emoji). Anyway, this week we head to Illinois for the John Deere Classic. Dylan Frittelli returns to defend his title from 2019 while three-time winner Steve Stricker joins the field along with 2012 winner Zach Johnson.

TPC Deere Run is 7200 yards, par 71, played on Bentgrass Greens. TPC Deere Run has hosted this event since 2000, and this is the 50th Anniversary of the John Deere Classic. The course has 78 sand bunkers, three holes with water in play, and a 4″ rough. . However, 78% of golfers will be able to hit fairways pretty easily. The landing areas are very generous, so golfers will hit most of their approach shots, Therefore – making this a wedge/birdie fest eliminating the need for power off the tee.

By far, the most accessible holes on the course are all the par 5’s as they’re anywhere from 35-50% in birdie rate with an opportunity of eagles at 4%. The most challenging holes on the course are the 9th and 18th holes, as they’re facing 21-25% in bogeys with a low double-bogey rate of 5%. Lastly, the historic cut line at TPC Deere Run is -2 to -3. So it should be clear that we’ll probably see a -7 in round 1.

  • Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
  • Birdie or Better
  • P4: 400-450

PGA DFS FanDuel Targets

  • Daniel Berger ($11,900) – This field is horrendous, and it’s probably wise to stick with the guys that “should”  make the cut. But we went over this already last week with Bryson. However, Berger is a player that has an all-around game, and we aren’t just looking for a bomb and gouge type of player. Berger is ranked 8th in Greens in Regulation, 9th in Birdies, 14th at Approach, 25th T2G, 29th in Putting, and 35th OTT. Berger has also been on an uptrend. Over the last 64 rounds, he’s gained 0.52 total strokes. In the previous 32 rounds, he’s gained 1.30 total strokes. During the previous 16 rounds, he’s gained 1.50 total strokes, and over the previous eight rounds, he’s gained 1.85 total strokes.
  • Kevin Streelman ($11,300) – I absolutely do not mind starting all my lineups with Streelman here. Streels is coming off a disappointing MC at Travelers, but this is only his 2nd MC in his last nine starts. On the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Streelman has gained 4.7 strokes T2G, 2.1 on APP & ARG, and one stroke OTT. Streelman is also is ranked 25th in Greens in Regulation, 33rd at Approach,  34th in T2G, 45th OTT, and 46th in Birdies.

PGA DFS DraftKings Targets

  • Aaron Wise ($9,200) – Wise is playing his heart out this season. He actually hasn’t played this well since 2018. In Wise’s last nine events, he’s only missed the cut once. He’s placed 9th at Memorial, 9th at Wells Fargo, 13th at Honda, and 17th at The PGA Championship. On the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Wise has gained 5.4 strokes T2G, 2.2 at APP, 1.8 ARG, and 1.4 OTT.
  • Lucas Glover ($8,600) – Which Glover will we have this week? It’s so difficult to tell which Glover will actually show up because we never know! The thing about Glover is that he plays exceptionally well under challenging courses but then misses the cut at Palmetto? This season he has finished 4th at Valero, 8th at Charles Schwab, 19th at Honda, 33rd at RBC Heritage, and 37th at Memorial. Which is pretty great for a player that usually sits around that $7K range.

PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets

  • Pat Perez (1.35X) – Has Pat Perez found his groove this season? In his last seven starts, he’s only missed the cut once. Highlighted by a solid 10th place finish at Palmetto and 14th place finish at Rocket Mortgage. Over his last five starts, he’s gained 1.5 strokes T2G, 1.3 on APP, and one stroke ARG.
  • Scott Stallings (1.35X) – Stallings is coming in with an excellent finish at Rocket Mortage by placing 25th. He gained five strokes on Approach, 2.5 strokes T2G, and over two strokes in Putting. If you apply this minimal sample size and his last four starts at The John Deere Classic (18th, MC, 5th, and 16th), he should fit the player pool.

PGA Dark Horse Target

  • Satoshi Kodaira ($8,300FD/$7,000DK) – Satoshi is in a perfect spot after burning people last week. Satoshi ended Thursday at -5 just to entirely fall apart on the back nine on Friday by finishing at +4. And to be honest, I can forgive him for falling apart on the back 9. In his last four starts, he’s gained over 25 total strokes while being red hot on the putter. Most importantly – Kodaira is ranked 10th in Driving accuracy and 68th in Putting per the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model.

PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The John Deere Classic 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content

Study Hub

Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.

Course Correlation Model

One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.

Important Rankings

Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.

Cash, GPP, Core Picks

On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All are categorized on which player I like and in what format. For example, cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.

Showdown Content

This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.

Consistency vs. Trends

This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.

Putting Data

This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.Study Hub DFS Projections

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