PGA DFS: Course Preview for The Shriners Children’s Open 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. So make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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Now it actually feels like we’re officially back with how solid the field is this week as we travel to Las Vegas, not for one but two events. This week we have Shriners and then next week is the CJ Cup. At least eleven of the top 25 in the world will be in the field. So we’ll see familiar faces like Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka, Harris English, Patrick Reed, and defending champion Martin Laird.
TPC Summerlin is 7255 yards, par 71, played on Bentgrass greens. The course has 92 sand bunkers, four holes with water in play, and only 2″ of rough. One thing to note here the course is a couple of thousand feet above sea level which means that it will play a little shorter than other courses of the same length. You’ll notice that bombers have the best success here since it’s a desert-style course with wide-open fairways and little to no rough to hold them back. Past winners have been Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Kevin Na, and Martin Laird, with scores as low as -23 and rounds up to -7 per day. There are several sand bunkers in play, but they aren’t going to stop you from draining birdies left and right. The course is very straightforward – look for bombers and guys that can sink birdies.
- Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Birdie or Better
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Sam Burns ($11,700) – Benitt, are you insane? You can’t play last week’s winner this week. Here’s where you’re wrong about Sam Burns. I usually tend to fade the winners, but let’s not forget – Last season Burns won at Valspar Championship and then nearly won it again at Byron Nelson with a runner-up finish. So if there’s anyone that can do it, it’s Sam. Last week Burns actually lost nearly two strokes on the putter and still took the trophy home while gaining a massive 14 strokes T2G, which means that there’s still room for improvement, and we haven’t seen the best out of Burns yet. Per the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Sam is gaining 13 strokes in Putting, 4.2 in T2G, 2.1 in OTT, and 1.5 at APP in his last five events.
- Webb Simpson ($11,500) – Webb has played at this event for the past eight years and has had massive success. Here are a few things to note: Webb has never lost strokes at Approach, Ball Striking, or Tee To Green in the eight years he’s been playing at Shriners. Heck, even his Total Strokes gained he’s only had one year where he lost a small 0.68 strokes back in 2015. Since then, he’s gained over four total strokes per year. We always talk about playing Webb in smaller courses, and well, now is the time. Over the last 16 rounds, Webb is ranked 4th at Approach, 4th in Birdies, 12th in Tee To Green, 15th in Ball Striking, and 42nd in Putting.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Abraham Ancer ($10,400) – Ancer finished the year in quite a fashion. He won it at WGC St. Jude and then followed it up with two 9th place finishes at the Tour Championship and the BMW Championship. He hasn’t had the best results here as he’s placed either 4th or missed the cut entirely, but he played exceptionally well last season, and I think he’s looking for more W’s this year. Over the last 36 rounds, Ancer is ranked 5th in Putting, 11th at Approach, 12th in Ball Striking, 15th Tee to Green, and 16th in Birdies.
- Mito Pereira ($7,800) – I’m telling you, I’m playing this kid until he wins and even after that I’ll still play him (lol). This course completely fits his style. He’s a bomber(check) and sinks birdies (check) what else do you need? Last week his putter didn’t do him any favors, but since he made his appearance on the PGA Tour, this is the most he’s ever lost on the putter. Heck, he still finished at Sanderson Farms with nearly 4 strokes gained. Moving forward – per the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Mito is ranked 1st in T2G, 1st in Ball Striking, 3rd at Approach, 6th Off The Tee, 6th in Birdies, and 14th Around The Green.
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Luke List (1.35X) – There’s something about Luke that I like playing him in these types of events. List is a bomber he just has terrible accuracy, and that’s more than okay at a course like this. Last season Luke was ranked 8th in Driving Distance, 13th Off the Tee, 23rd Tee To Green, and 51st in Birdies. He’s also had great success at Summerlin by finishing 13th, 20th, and 15th in the last three years. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – List is ranked 4th Tee To Green, 8th Off The Tee, 13th Around The Green, and 15th in Ball Striking.
PGA Dark Horse Target
- Ian Poulter ($9,200FD/$7000 FD) – Last time we saw Poulter at a PGA event was back at the Northern Trust and most recently at the Ryder Cup, where he defeated Tony Finau. Poulter had a fantastic season and although I don’t see a T20 finish here, he is a value play. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Poulter is ranked 6th in Putting, 8th Around The Green, and 23rd in Birdies.
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, Approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational from left to right and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All are categorized on which player I like and in what format. For example, cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.