PGA DFS: Course Preview for The TOUR Championship 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. So make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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It’s come to an end – the Super Season is at its last event of the season, and that means. It’s FINALS! This week we enter the field with only 30 golfers, and only one will walk out with $15 MILLION. The course has four holes with water in play and a rough of only 2.5″.
East Lake Golf Club is a par 70, 7300 yards, played on Bermuda greens. Tom Bendelow originally designed the course in 1904, and over the years, it’s been renovated in 1994, 2008, and 2016 by Rees Jones. In 2020 trees were removed on the 15th hole to combine the back two tees into one larger teeing area to give a broader range of yardage options. The course has yielded winning scores in the -8 to -13 range for the most part since the changes.
A few things to note is that in 2018 East Lake played as the 24th most challenging venue, while in 2019, it was ranked 14th toughest, so don’t expect a birdie-fest even with that rough sitting at 2.5″. The most accessible holes on the course are the Par 5’s, which are the 9th and 15th holes as they account for about 30% of the total scoring. Alright, my friends, it’s been a pleasure writing these articles all season long – let’s finish strong.
- Strokes Gained: Approach The Green
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Birdie or Better
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Jon Rahm ($13,000) – Performed exceptionally well on the first two days and took a pretty big downfall on Saturday and Sunday. However, we must have short-term memory with PGA DFS. Let us not forget that in his last 12 rounds, he’s gained over 2.44 total strokes, and in his previous 24 rounds, he’s gained three total strokes. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Rahm is ranked 1st T2G, 1st in Total Driving, 2nd OTT, 2nd in Birdie or Better, 7th at Approach, and 48th in Putting.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Justin Thomas (11,000) – So we saw JT trending in the right direction at The Northern Trust, and he kind of pumped the brakes a bit at The BMW Championship. However, he woke up on Sunday in round 4. Justin gained nearly 2.5 total strokes with a vast improvement in the Approach game. That’s the type of momentum we like as he enters the field for the last event of the season. Now, JT will have to really work for it as he’ll be starting at -4 (6 strokes behind). On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – JT is ranked 3rd T2G, 3rd at Approach, 9th in Birdie or Better, 42nd in Driving Distance, and 48th OTT.
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Abraham Ancer (1.25X) – Ancer is another golfer that is very much behind, but could climb the leaderboards. Ancer has fallen off a bit from his huge gain of 2.50 total strokes gained in his last 36 rounds, as he now has gained 1.48 total strokes in his previous 12 rounds. But let us not forget that Ancer has had a spectacular season. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Aner is ranked 6th in Driving Accuracy, 22nd OTT, 24th in Birdies or Better, 25th at Approach, and 29th in Putting.
PGA Dark Horse Target
- Sam Burns ($9,900FD/$8,500DK) – Burns is sitting in the same spot as JT & Ancer, but I love this play as a Dark Horse because Burns has done it many times this season – He’s moved up the leaderboard out of nowhere. For example, BMW Championship gained eight total strokes, WGC gained over 12 total strokes, AT&T Byron Nelson gained over 12 total strokes, and Valspar gained over 16 total strokes. These are examples of how Burns can move up this leaderboard with ease. So at this price range, we can expect a top 5 from Burns (fingers crossed)
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All are categorized on which player I like and in what format. For example, cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.