PGA DFS: Picks Preview for Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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This week we enter the 2nd leg of the Florida Swing as we approach Bay Hill Club and Lodge. You’ll notice many golfers have taken this week off to prepare for The Players next week, such as Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Collin Morikawa. However, we will still have a strong field.
Bay Hill Club and Lodge is a par 72, 7400 yards played on Bermuda Greens designed originally by Dick Wilson and renovated in 2009 by Arnold Palmer. Bay Hill’s par 5’s are by far the easiest to birdie. Their birdie rates are from 32-51%. However, in contrast, several holes are difficult. There are 6 holes in the back 9 that have a bogey rate of upwards of 25%. One of those most difficult holes on the course is the last hole. It has a 20% bogey rate but nearly a 10% double-bogey rate.
Moving forward, we will actually have an enormous amount of data on this course, unlike last week. With that being said, I’ll be eyeing a fair amount of ball strikers for this course as it’s fairly important. And the runner up here will be Strokes Gained on Approach, which is important every week, but this week more than others. Lastly, there are nine holes with water in play, and the rough will be about three inches.
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Viktor Hovland ($11,900) – Vik is the 2nd most expensive golfer on the field, but his recent forms speaks for itself. Per the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Hovland has had two runner-up finishes, and a 5th place finish at Genesis in his last 3 events. Hovland is gaining 6.2 strokes T2G, 3.7 OTT, and 2.6 on APP in his last 5 events.
- Tyrrell Hatton ($11,500) – I usually don’t like playing defending champions, but Hatton’s options are endless. Over on the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model, he is ranked 11th at Approach, 25th Off The Tee, and 35th at Ball Striking. And on the Rise or Fall Putting Strokes Gained, he gains 0.3 strokes on Bermuda greens.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,800) – I have an obsession with playing Fitzy on Bermuda greens. I mean, the man excels on this surface. Per the Rise or Fall Putting Strokes Gained – Fitzpatrick gains 0.75 strokes. I also like his history here with a 9th & 2nd place finish. Did I also mention he’s gained 1.31 total strokes in 20 rounds? 🙂
- Sam Burns ($8,400) – Burns has been having a superb season placing 3rd, 39th, 22nd, and 18th. Per the Rise or Fall Study Hub, Burns has gained 2 strokes on APP, 1.9 T2G, and half a stroke OTT. What I also like is that he gains 0.73 on Bermuda greens.
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Francesco Molinari (1.45X) – Molinari’s won here back in 2019 and is now going back to Bay Hill with excellent form. Over on the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Molinari has placed 8th, 59th, 10th, and 8th since the season resumed. On the Rise or Fall, Strokes Gained Database – Molinari has gained 2.23 total strokes in 28 rounds.
- Marc Leishman (1.45X) – Leish is another one that does extremely well at Bay Hill that is also coming in with great form. Over the last 5 events, he’s placed 39th, 32nd, 18th, 4th, and 24th. On the Rise or Fall Strokes Gained Database, Leishman has gained 1.70 total strokes in 40 rounds while also gaining 0.22 strokes on Bermuda greens.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Each week our wizard CeeGee, provides a huge Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last 4 events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.