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PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The AT&T Byron Nelson 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.

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Course Preview

We finally close the lid on The Wells Fargo Championship and head over to McKinney, Texas, for the AT&T Byron Nelson. As we know, AT&T Byron Nelson is an event that has been around for quite some time. It was initially held at The Four Seasons from 1994 to 2017, then from 2018-2019 at Trinity Forest, and now this week, we head to TPC Craig Ranch for the next five years.

TPC Craig Ranch is nearly 7500 yards, and par 72 played on Bentgrass Greens. Open Champion Tom Weiskopf designed the course. It opened its doors in 2004, and it has hosted the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012. Do make a note this is the first time TPC Craig Ranch has hosted a PGA TOUR event. So we won’t have any data for the course itself, so be careful when looking at event history versus course history.

TPC Craig Ranch has 83 sand bunkers with four water hazards. The rough is a little deep, being measured at 2.5″. All that being said, if you take a look at the flyover, there isn’t much to be worried about. The fairways are wide, and there isn’t all that tree-lined along the fairway like we had last week. Hole 4 might give you an issue with the fairway bunker, but really what you want to focus on are excellent OTT players and golfers that can capitalize on birdies.

 

  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
  • Birdie or Better
  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting

PGA DFS FanDuel Targets

  • Bryson DeChambeau ($12,300) – “Benitt, can you please stop picking players at the top?” It’s not my fault that FanDuel read my mind this week (again). I think this week is a Bryson week. He can smash the ball with pretty much nothing stopping him and fill the scorecard with birdies? Who else do you need? Bryson is your man. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Bryson is ranked 1st in Driving Distance, Eagles, Off The Tee, and Tee To Green. He’s also gaining 1.36 total strokes in the last 15 rounds.
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick ($11,400) – Bermuda KING specialist Fitzy! Fitz has been gone since the RBC Heritage, so it’s good to see him here right before a major. I called Fitz the Bermuda “king” specialist because he gains nearly a stroke on Bermuda greens. In addition, Fitz is ranked on the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – 11th in Putting, 15th in Driving Accuracy, 18th Off The Tee, 28th Tee to Green, and 30th in Birdies. He’s also gained 1.47 total strokes in the last eight rounds and 1.12 total strokes in the previous 16 rounds.

PGA DFS DraftKings Targets

  • Scottie Scheffler ($9,400) – Born and Raised in Dallas, Texas, meaning even if the wind picks up, Scottie should be A-okay! Besides the missed cut at The Players – Scottie has placed the following: 29th, 18th, 54th, 5th, 20th, and 7th. And on a course where OTT & Birdies are important, Scottie is ranked 14th in Birdies and 15th OTT.
  • Luke List ($8,400) – I mentioned Luke last week due to how vital OTT was last week. He did have a 6th place finish. This week we’re looking at almost the same stats, except Birdies are much more important here. Luke brings all that to the table. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Luke is ranked 7th in Driving Distance & Off The Tee, 9th in Eagles, and 34 T2G. Luke has also gained 0.73 total strokes in the eight rounds.

PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets

  • Cameron Champ (1.3X) – This course sets up exceptionally well for Cameron. He’s ranked 3rd in Driving Distance, 11th Off The Tee, 26th in Eagles, and 49th in Birdies. This course compliments his playing style, and in the last eight rounds, he’s gained 0.67 total strokes. Did I also mention he resides in Houston, Texas, and went to Texas A&M? I like my chances with Champ.
  • Ryan Moore (1.35X) – Ryan has been quietly making cuts with not much commotion, which plays exactly where we want it. Let’s face it. A highly owned Ryan is never a good thing. Ryan is not known to sink birdies, but he will at least be excellent OTT & T2G. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Ryan is ranked 4th in Driving Accuracy, 20th Off The Tee, and 65th in Tee To Green.

PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The AT&T Byron Nelson 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraftPGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content

Study Hub

Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.

Course Correlation Model

One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.

Important Rankings

Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.

Cash, GPP, Core Picks

On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.

Showdown Content

This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.

Consistency vs. Trends

This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.

Putting Data

This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.Study Hub DFS Projections

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