PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Genesis Invitational 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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This week we travel to the iconic Riviera Country Club for The Genesis Invitational. This week’s field will be much stronger than last week’s field (thank god), but with fewer golfers. We’ll be looking at 120 players, give or take.
Riviera CC is a par 71, over 7300 yards, played on Poa Annua greens. There are three par 5’s on this course, and they’re all relatively easy. Heck, the first hole is the easiest on the whole course. The first hole has a 60% birdie rate. So if your player starts the day with a par, you might be in trouble. However, don’t let that fool you. There are seven holes on this course that have a bogey rate of 21-30%.
The fairways in Riviera are narrow and made up of Kikuyu greens. So there’s a mixture of grass, but for the most part, you’ll deal with Poa Annua. The rough is thin with only 2″ deep, so nothing to worry about. However, the greens are small here, just like last week at Pebble Beach. The difference is that we won’t have any water hazards, but we will have 58 sand bunkers.
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting (poa)
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Dustin Johnson ($12,100) – Riviera is one of those courses that I tend to pay attention to course history more than I usually do. And DJ is nothing short of fantastic here. After taking the week off last week after the Saudi Arabia Tournament, he’s finally back since he played at Tournament of Champions. Over on the Rise or Fall Study Hub – DJ won back in 2017 plus three other top 10 finishes.
- Carlos Ortiz ($9,700) – Over on the Rise or Fall – Course Models, Ortiz has gained a total of 1.74 strokes at Riviera in the last 16 rounds. He also has excellent court history, and his recent form has been spectacular. On the Study Hub, you can panel over and see that since the start of 2021, he’s finished 4th, 29th, 14th, and 37th. His course history is 26th, 9th, and 26th. For someone that’ll probably be overlooked, I like this.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – I don’t understand the pricing for Xander. He’s way too cheap on DraftKings. Especially for someone that has recently placed runner up twice in his last two events. On the Rise or Fall – Putting Strokes Gained Model, he gains 0.36 strokes on Poa and gains over 2 total strokes on Riviera.
- Henrik Norlander ($7,400) – Why does it feel like everyone will jump off Norlander now? He’s been performing extremely well. On the Rise or Fall Study Hub, Norlander has placed 26th, 22nd, 2nd, and 12th. He’s gaining 4.2 strokes T2G, 2.7 on APP, and 1.8 OTT in his last 5 events per the Study Hub. And he’s trending upwards on the Consistency vs. Trend model? Sign me up!
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Bubba Watson (1.4X) – It’s plain and simple you play Bubba on courses he likes to play and if it’s not obvious from the Study Hub. The man has won here twice in the last five years. I mean, granted, he’s a GPP play with how dangerous his course history is. He either wins or misses the cut. But at least he’s coming in decent form. He placed 22nd at the Waste Management a few weeks ago.
- Abraham Ancer (1.5X) – Ancer provides you a ton of value, especially in that 1.5x range. In the last 5 events, Ancer has had four top 20 finishes while gaining 1.1 strokes T2G, 1.1 OTT, and 1 stroke on APP. Lastly, it’s not much, but on the Putting Strokes Gained Model, Ancer gains 0.08 strokes on Poa greens.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Each week our wizard CeeGee, provides a huge Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. And for those that don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last 4 events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.