PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The U.S. Open 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft
We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. So make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
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Course Preview
This week we head to San Diego, California, for the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. It’s major week, baby! Earlier this year, we were here for the Farmers Insurance Open due to the pandemic, but now we return to its regular spot on the PGA Tour schedule. The Farmers Insurance Open played both in the North & South Course, but this week we will only be playing at the South Course. Do make note that the greens here are Poa, tees are Bermuda, and fairways are Kikuyu.
Torrey Pines GC is 7600 yards, par 71, played on Poa Annua greens. The course was designed by William Bell in 1957 and renovated in 2001 by Rees Jones. The average green size is 5000 sq feet, the course has 82 sand bunkers, and it has one hole with water in play. The most significant danger of this course is the rough. The rough is made up of Kikuyu grass, and it’s being said that we can see up to 5″ of rough.
The fairways here are narrow, and there aren’t many trees to be concerned about off the tee. What will be concerning this week is hitting specific target lines. The course has made some adjustments as it use to sit a little over 7700 yards. The adjustment is that the 6th hole went from its original par 5 564 yards to a par 4 515 yards. Therefore, making it a domino effect with the rest of the holes. Moving forward – in the last ten years, the historic cut line average has been -1. Let’s get to the picks!
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Birdie or Better
- Driving Accuracy
PGA DFS FanDuel Targets
- Jon Rahm ($12,200) – After he was robbed from his automatic W at The Memorial I’m sure he’s coming back with vengeance. As you may or may not know. Rahm played three rounds at Memorial and then was cut because he tested positive for COVID. Before he was cut, he gained a ridiculous 21 total strokes. Throughout the last 5 years, Rahm has finished 7th, 2nd, 5th, 29th, and 1st at the Farmers Insurance Open (Torrey Pines).
- Xander Schauffele ($11,400) – I know that Cali kid is going to be very popular and for good reasons. In his US Open career, he’s finished 5th, 3rd, 6th, and 5th. He’s obviously terrific when he’s under pressure in these significant events, and he also finished runner-up earlier this year at Farmers. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Xander is ranked 6th in Birdies, 9th in Putting, 11th in Greens in Regulation, 17th in T2G, 22nd at APP, 24th in Driving Distance, and 36th OTT.
PGA DFS DraftKings Targets
- Tony Finau ($8,900) – When will this Puerto Rico curse break!? Man, I very much like Finau here. Finau’s history at US Open events are 8th, MC, 5th, and MC. So he either gets you a top 10 or misses the cut at US Open events. But wait, don’t stop reading. Finau has finished the following at Torrey Pines: 2nd, 6th, 13th, 6th, 4th, 18th, and 24th. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Tony is also ranked 6th in T2G, 7th ARG, 13th at APP, 26th OTT, and 28th in Birdies. Sign me up!
- Sam Burns ($7,700) – Sam had issues at Memorial a few weeks ago, but he’s been stellar in his last five events. He’s gained 4.6 strokes T2G, 3.3 on APP, and a stroke OTT. Sam also has excellent history around Torrey Pines. He’s finished 18th, 49th, and 40th the last few years. Lastly, on the RIse or Fall Important Stats Model – he’s raked 2nd in Birdies, 14th at APP, 26th at Putting, 27th at Greens in Regulation, 43rd in T2G, and 46th OTT.
PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets
- Shane Lowry (1.25X) – Lowry has found his groove lately and he’s performing at elite levels. When I look at challenging courses like Memorial, Kiawah, Augusta National, and Sawgrass he’s played those courses exceptionally well. He’s placed 6th, 4th, 21st, and 8th. On the Rise or Fall Study Hub – he’s gained 5.9 strokes in T2G, 3 at APP, 2 strokes ARG, and 1.1 OTT in the last five events. Lastly, he’s ranked 19th ARG & T2G, 37th OTT, 43rd at Greens in Regulation, and 44th at APP.
- Jason Kokrak (1.35X) – Kokrak is playing his best golf since 2014. He’s gained this year 1.17 total strokes. A few weeks ago he won It at Charles Schwab and since then he’s taken a few weeks off. Now he’s back, and he plays very well at Torrey Pines. He’s finished 29th, 21st, 20th, MC, and 25th. In his last 5 events, he’s gained 5.5 strokes in T2G, 3.2 at APP, 2.8 in Putting, and 2.7 OTT. If you look at the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Kokrak has placed top 10 four times in the last seven events.
PGA Dark Horse Pick
- Harris English ($8,900/$7,300) – I had English as my Dark Horse Pick last week and I still think he won’t be noticed at all. Besides falling apart on the last nine holes, last week, he played very well. He gained 5.1 strokes in T2G, 3.3 OTT, 1 stroke at APP & ARG, and 3.2 strokes at putting. So he’s heading in the right direction, especially with his history at Torrey Pines. His history here is MC, 71st, MC, 8th, 14th, 31st, and 2nd.
PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content
Study Hub
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
Course Correlation Model
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Important Rankings
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
Cash, GPP, Core Picks
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All are categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
Showdown Content
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
Consistency vs. Trends
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
Putting Data
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.
