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PGA DFS: Picks Preview for Valspar Championship 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.

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Course Preview

We’re back in swampville, Florida, for a regular stroke play tournament. Last week’s team event was fun and all, but I’m ready to get back to regular events. This week we’ll have 152 golfers in the field for the Paul Casey Open, uh, I mean – The Valspar Championship.

Copperhead is 7300 yards, par 71, played on Bermuda Greens. There are four par 5’s, and they make up for the most accessible holes on the course. They have a 20-40% birdie rate. Now don’t let that distract you from how challenging this course is. This course has a historic cut line average of +3 so expect carnage. There are five holes with a bogey rate of 22-25%, with a slight chance of double bogeys. The way to go this week is to birdie the par 5’s and hope for your golfers to par it up the rest of the way.

The average driving distance on TOUR is 282 yards, this course’s driving distance is only 270 yards making this course less than a driver course. Iron plays will be very important here due to the layout of the course. The fairways here are narrow and there are nine holes with water in play and 74 sand bunkers. The greens here are 5800 sq feet so they’re relatively small and the rough is 3″ so it’s important to stay in the fairways.

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around The Green
  • Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • P4: 400-450

PGA DFS FanDuel Targets

  • Justin Thomas ($12,300) I always try to escape the top range, but I always get pulled back in. It’s tough to ignore JT here. He doesn’t have the most shinest course history here, but he is solid in all the right places. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – JT is ranked 1st in Birdies, 2nd on Approach, 3rd Tee To Green, and 10th Around The Green.
  • Paul Casey ($11,400) There’s a reason why this is called the Paul Casey Open (lol). But in all seriousness, Casey has won here back 2 back – so he must be great, no? Let’s take a look at some data. According to the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Casey is ranked 14th on Approach, 24th T2G, and 49th ARG. Casey has also gained a total of 1.34 strokes in the last 20 rounds played at Copperhead. Lastly, in the last 5 events, Casey has gained 5.4 strokes T2G, 3.5 on APP, and 1.7 ARG.

PGA DFS DraftKings Targets

  • Corey Conners ($9,600) – I have been on this Conners wagon for some time now. I feel like I mention him every week, but it’s difficult not to. I mean, take a look at his recent form on the Rise or Fall Study Hub. His recent form looks like this: 4th, 8th, 14th, 61st, 7th, and 3rd. And then if you take a look at his TOUR stats – Conners is ranked 6th in Greens in Regulation, 9th OTT, 9th T2G, and 11th on APP.
  • Charley Hoffman ($8,600) – Charley is having the best year of his career. As of the last 51 measured rounds, Charley has gained 1.37 total strokes. And if we take a closer look – in the previous eight rounds, he’s gained 2.78 total strokes and 1.44 total strokes in the last 16 rounds. Hoffman has been on fire, to say the least. His recent finishes are 11th, 18th, 2nd, 34th, 17th, and 10th. Lastly, on the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Hoffman is ranked 15th on APP, 16th T2G, and 29th OTT.

PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets

  • Chris Kirk (1.45X) – Kirk has been having a phenomenal season and he’s probably shown up in my articles at least two to three times. Since the start of the 2021 season, Kirk has only missed the cut once. He’s also had four top 10 finishes this season already. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Kirk is ranked 32nd T2G, 37th on APP, and 52nd in Birdies.
  • Doug Ghim (1.45X) – I like the value Ghim provides here. In his 2021 season, he’s only missed the cut 3 times and provides upside for his price. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Ghim is ranked 18th T2G, 27th on APP, and 37th in Birdies.

PGA DFS: Picks Preview for Valspar Championship DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content

Study Hub

Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.

Course Correlation Model

One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.

Important Rankings

Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.

Cash, GPP, Core Picks

On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.

Showdown Content

This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. For those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.

Consistency vs. Trends

This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.

Putting Data

This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.Study Hub DFS Projections

Photo by Robert Baird on Unsplash

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