We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.
This week we return to an entire field with the top elites. 2015 Champion Rory McIlroy returns since the Masters to face a field of 152 golfers. At the same time, teeing it up with Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm. A few changes were made to the course: The 1st hole of the tournament has been raised 3 feet for a better view of the hole; the 10th hole has had its fairway bunker extended to 32 total yards and palm trees were added to the 14th & 15th holes.
Quail Hollow GC is about 7500 yards; par 71 played on Bermuda Greens. The course has 61 sand bunkers, seven holes with water in play, and the average green size is about 6500 sq feet. The course has three par 5’s that are relatively easy as they have a 30-45% birdie rate, and even one of the par 4’s (hole 14) has a birdie rate of 36%. However, don’t let that fool you. This course plays difficult. In 2018 the cutline was +4, and in 2019 it was +2.
Last week we had the Snake Pit at Valspar, which were holes 16, 17, and 18. This week we have The Green Mile with holes 16, 17, and 18. These holes have an average bogey rate of 25% AND an 8% double bogey possibility. I noticed that the cut makers/top 10 throughout the years were strong OTT & T2G, so keep that in mind. Alright, let’s get to the picks for the week!
Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.
One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.
On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.
This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. Those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.
This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.