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PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Wells Fargo Championship 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.

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Course Preview

This week we return to an entire field with the top elites. 2015 Champion Rory McIlroy returns since the Masters to face a field of 152 golfers. At the same time, teeing it up with Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm. A few changes were made to the course: The 1st hole of the tournament has been raised 3 feet for a better view of the hole; the 10th hole has had its fairway bunker extended to 32 total yards and palm trees were added to the 14th & 15th holes.

Quail Hollow GC is about 7500 yards; par 71 played on Bermuda Greens. The course has 61 sand bunkers, seven holes with water in play, and the average green size is about 6500 sq feet. The course has three par 5’s that are relatively easy as they have a 30-45% birdie rate, and even one of the par 4’s (hole 14) has a birdie rate of 36%. However, don’t let that fool you. This course plays difficult. In 2018 the cutline was +4, and in 2019 it was +2.

Last week we had the Snake Pit at Valspar, which were holes 16, 17, and 18. This week we have The Green Mile with holes 16, 17, and 18. These holes have an average bogey rate of 25% AND an 8% double bogey possibility. I noticed that the cut makers/top 10 throughout the years were strong OTT & T2G, so keep that in mind. Alright, let’s get to the picks for the week!

 

  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • P4: 450-500

PGA DFS FanDuel Targets

  • Justin Thomas ($12,300) – “Are you kidding me, Benitt? He played terribly last week!” I get it. I get it. JT didn’t have his best week, but he’s still one of the best T2G. We all know JT has a volatile putter. If we look at the Rise or Fall Study Hub – JT lost 5.8 strokes at Genesis and then had a top 15 at WGC and won it at The Players. At Northern Trust, he lost four strokes on the putter and two weeks later came in 2nd at the Tour Championship. Lost 5.4 strokes at Travelers and a week later finished 2nd at WorkDay. I’m just trying to prove that even tho he had a terrible putter, he’s still a GREAT player. Moving Foward – JT is ranked 1st in Birdies, 2nd on Approach, and 2nd Tee to Green.
  • Corey Conners ($10,800) – You’re going to get so tired of me talking about Corey. Maybe you should skip this section cause I’m about to highlight my boy once again. Corey on FD was like 62% owned last week (insane), and I think this week I see that dropping HEAVILY. Not only because he’s in this same range as Zalatoris, Ancer, and Sungjae, but because I think many expected a top 10 finish. I don’t blame you there; I expected the same, but I can’t turn around on someone that’s been producing QUALITY golf. Last four starts, he’s placed 21st, 4th, 8th, and 14th. And on the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Corey is ranked 8th in Driving Accuracy, 8th in Greens in Regulation, 8th Of The Tee, 9th Tee to Green, and 10th on Approach.

PGA DFS DraftKings Targets

  • Viktor Hovland ($9,800) – It took me all of last week to question why I was not on the Hovland train? He finished 3rd, and I think what really got him was the 3rd round, where he nearly lost a stroke on the putter. Nonetheless, he played great. Now we come to a course that should play at his strengths. In this course, I want to be overweight on golfers that are fantastic OTT and T2G. Hovland matches up perfectly with that. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Hovland is ranked 4th OTT, 5th in Birdies, and 6th T2G.
  • Max Homa ($9,000) – For those of you that know me, know that I’m a huge Homa fan. The kid has a great attitude and has a love for the game. I can’t deny that. Homa’s last two events have been stellar, to say the least. He has gained two total strokes over the previous eight rounds. He’s not highly ranked in important stats like the rest of the guys in this range, but I do love that he’s gained ten strokes on the putter, six strokes T2G, five strokes OTT, and five strokes on APP in the last ten rounds. He’s definitely a GPP play more than cash play, but I like my chances here.

PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets

  • Keegan Bradley (1.3X) – It pains me to even mention Keegs after an atrocious round 4. Is atrocious the word? I feel bad saying that because it’s not like he went +3 or something, but man, he missed so many birdie opportunities. Anyway, moving forward – I like going back to the well this week with Keegs. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats Model – Keegs is ranked 7th on APP, 7th T2G, and 22nd in GIR. Lastly, Keegs has been consistent. He hasn’t missed a cut since January. In comparison, he is gaining 5.2 strokes T2G, 2.9 on APP, 1.2 OTT, and 1.1 ARG in the last ten events.
  • Cameron Tringale (1.45X) – Tringale is having the best season he’s ever had in his career. In the last 55 measured rounds, Trin has gained a total of 1.36 strokes. His 2nd highest is 0.71, so this is a significant upgrade. He’s also only missed the cut once in the last 12 events if you don’t count the team event (Zurich). On the Important Stats Model – Tringale is ranked 25th in Birdies, 30th T2G, 32nd in Putting, 38th in GIR, 45th OTT, and 48th on APP.

PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Wells Fargo Championship on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraftPGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content

Study Hub

Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a massive Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.

Course Correlation Model

One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.

Important Rankings

Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.

Cash, GPP, Core Picks

On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.

Showdown Content

This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. Those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.

Consistency vs. Trends

This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last four events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.

Putting Data

This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.Study Hub DFS Projections

Photo by Will Porada on Unsplash

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