pga picks for WGC FedEx St. Jude at TPC Southwind
We have a championship this week and that makes the PGA Picks for WGC even more important! This week we’re at Memphis, Tennessee where 45 of the top 50 players will be in the field in this no cut event. Prior to WGC FedEx St. Jude the course use to be called WGC Bridgestone Invitational, which was played at Firestone CC, so if you look back the only year we can actually count is last year.
As this course use to be played on Bent greens and the course length was about 7400 yards. As of 2019 to present the course is less than 7300 yards par 70 and played on Bermuda greens. Defending champion Brooks Koepka will be in the field alongside Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm.
Some of the notable holes are holes 5, 17, and 7. They’re all par 4’s sitting over 480 yards. These holes have 21-29% chance in bogeys, so it’s important to pick a player that has their irons dialed in and can strike the ball far.
- Strokes Gained Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Off The Tee
- Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Jon Rahm (11400) – Rahm loves WGC events! He finished 3rd at Mexico and last year when he played here he finished 7th. When Rahm wins an event that momentum keeps up as his history shows. In my model Rahm is ranked 1st in P4: 450-500 and 6th OTT.
- Bryson DeChambeau ($11000) – It should come at no surprise why Bryson is here. Besides that quintuple bogey at Memorial the man has been on fire. He won at Rocket Mortgage and has 3 top 10 finishes since the break. Bryson comes in ranked 1st in OTT and SG: Par 4 and OTT in my general model. He’s also ranked 2nd in Ball Striking and GIR% Gained. At 323 yards driving distance, Bryson will come in handy here.
- Tyrrell Hatton ($9700) – Since the break Hatton has been fuego. Right before the break Hatton won at API and then after 3 months he came to RBC finished 3rd and finished 4th at Rocket Mortgage. He’s gained 15 strokes in putting, 5 strokes on APP, and 4.5 strokes T2G since the break.
- Viktor Hovland ($9400) – I’ve been writing him up for a while now and that’s because he will be winning an event either this week or in the near future. This week everything comes into his favor – since the break Hovland has not missed a cut while highlighting finishes at WorkDay (3rd), Rocket Mortgage (12th) and Travelers (11th). He’s 1st in the field in ball striking and approach in 24 rounds.
- Webb Simpson ($9900) – Memorial and Workday are events I just want to forget about as the course and weather were terrible, so I’m dismissing Webb’s performance there. But let’s also highlight his performance before Memorial – since the break Webb won at RBC and came in 8th at Rocket Mortgage. Webb is 1st in SG: Par 4, putting and short game in the last 24 rounds (bermuda greens model). While coming in 5th on APP and 16th in Ball Striking
- Xander Schauffele ($9800) – Memorial was awful for most players, but Xander is one of those players that actually played very well. He managed to gain 12 strokes T2G, 7 OTT and 4.6 on APP! Since the restart he’s finished 14th, 20th, 64th and 3rd. He’s also finished here 27th before and ranked 1st in GIR and 3rd OTT.
- Daniel Berger ($9600) – Berger has been spectacular I hope he goes overlooked since he missed the cut at memorial, but that’s going to be close to impossible and it’s all for good reasons. Berger’s last 5 starts have all been top 10 finishes. Berger is ranked 5th in P4: 450-500 and 15th in his short game.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9000) – Are you surprised? The Bermuda specialist is here! The man gains 0.6 strokes on Bermuda greens! Since the break he’s finished 3rd, 27th, 14th and 32nd. Last year he finished 4th here at TPC Southwind. Fitzy is 4th in SG: Par 4 and GIR’s. He’s also ranked 5th in putting and 6th in fairways gained.
Dark Horse Play
- Patrick Reed ($8800) – Reed is a competitor and he loves these type of events. Excuse me for repeating myself, but Reed absolutely loves WGC events. In Mexico he won the event, at HSBC he finished 8th and at St. Jude (last year) he finished 12th. 2 weeks ago in such an impossible course (Memorial) he gained 3.8 strokes OTT and 3.6 strokes T2G.
Thanks for reading fam,