A few weeks ago I wrote an article on the basics of PGA, which you can check out here. This week I decided to amplify it. I’ve received several messages on how to read my sheets and as we grow I’ll be evolving my process so that everyone can better understand the picks and at the same time have you learn, so you can make your own decisions. That way you know exactly why and how I landed on “X” player or maybe you disagree on the pick I made and we can chat about it. Also, this week I’ll be releasing another sheet that’ll provide us more in-sight in our lovely game.
One of our most important models is our C.C Model. Below you’ll see the courses that fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. The example below is based on the U.S Open
You’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to the U.S Open and how each player has an individual rank and lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.
This 2nd model contains rounds played at a specific course or event. In this example, we’re using the U.S Open. The U.S Open is played in several locations so you can’t use course history, you’ll have to use event history.
On the chart below you’ll see how the best golfer on this database is Xander Schauffele because he gains over 3 strokes on this event. This gives you a great insight as to who most likely will miss the cut. Strokes gained are the total amount of strokes that were gained in a total event. This chart gives you clarity versus looking for what finishing position a certain golfer finished in.
Every week I post an article on Monday’s giving you a course preview on what’s in the store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. The numbers you see below each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who you should choose.
This model you’ll find available here. It’ll be available from Friday to Sunday. The sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. But anyway, if you’re a data nerd like me this might intrigue you. If you’re playing the U.S Open and read my article and/or spoke to me on Discord you would know that this course is a must to hit fairways and greens. Below you will see a column for “Fairways” and “Greens in Regulations” you would also see all the common stats for the course.
This a new model I’ve been working on. This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last 4 events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold”. And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.
In conclusion, these models are here to help you become a better PGA DFS player. You’ll be able to read four models and decide what is the best option. Even if you disagree with one or two of my picks it’s okay, that’s what makes this fun. Shoot me a message on Discord and let’s talk about it or heck maybe I missed something that caught your eye. Be sure to look for these sheets Tuesday nights or Wednesday mornings.
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