Last week was a great week for the Rise or Fall fam this week; we stay in beautiful Hawaii for our first full-field tournament of the year. Moving on – let’s get ready for the Sony Open DFS Course Preview for DraftKings & FanDuel.
Before we move on to the Sony Open, I had to congratulate Harris English on that W last week. English hasn’t won a championship in over 7 years, and after finishing the 2020 season as strong as he did, I have to applaud his success and hope to see him contest a lot more this season.
Moving forward, we have a full field this week in Hawaii with defending champ Cameron Smith. Accompany by past champions Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, and Fabian Gomez.
Waialae CC is a par 70 under 7100 yards played on Bermuda Greens. This course will be played differently from what we saw last week at the Tournament of Champions. You’ll need precision from some holes, unlike last week when fairways were wide. Even though the rough won’t be penal and the course will complement bombers, it’ll still be a good idea to keep it in the fairways due to tree linings.
The front nine looks to be the most difficult as players will be facing four holes that have a bogey rate of 19% to 22%. Meanwhile, the back nine only has one hole that has a 27% chance of bogey. We should expect a birdie fest, but we could expect low scores if the wind comes into play. The greens at Waialae are flat and small and should play firm if we don’t get any rain. Alright, enough blabber – on to the picks!
Webb Simpson ($11,100) – It’s no surprise to find Webb here as the highest priced golfer. But hear me out for a second. Webb last week had one of the worse performances he’s had in his career! I backtracked up to 10 years, and I couldn’t find worse performance OTT than he had at TOC. Losing 6.6 strokes OTT. Not only that, Webb has an excellent history at Waialae. Over on the Rise or Fall Study Hub, he’s placed a 3rd & 4th place finish in the last 2 years and gains 0.25 putting strokes on Bermuda Greens.
Collin Morikawa ($10,600) – Mori played so well last week, but in round 4, he couldn’t put it all together, and that’s okay. He still managed to gain 5.7 strokes T2G, 2.6 on APP, and 1.6 OTT. Over on the Study Hub, he’s played here once with a 21st finish while gaining 1.29 total strokes.
Russell Henley ($8,700) – Henley pops on my models so much, but it’s hard to overlook his history here. In the last 3 years, he’s missed the cut twice and placed 66th. Not too great. But Henley is coming off one of the best seasons he’s ever had. If you take a look at the Rise or Fall Study Hub – since the restart back in June, he’s only had three miss-cuts while topping five top 10 finishes. Henley also gains 0.4 putting strokes on Bermuda, and although he has terrible course history, he’s gained 0.67 total strokes in 26 rounds.
Sungjae Im ($9,800) – Sungbae had an amazing performance at TOC, and the thing that wasn’t positive in his arsenal was his putter. He lost over 3 strokes on the putter and still managed to finish top 5. Sungjae doesn’t normally do this, especially for someone that gains 0.35 strokes on the putter on these greens. Still, he managed to gain 9.5 strokes T2G, 5.2 strokes on APP, and 2.6 OTT.
Dark Horse Play
Jason Kokrak ($7,700) – It’s been Kokrak season for me for some time now, and I like going back to him again this week. Much like how Mori fell apart in round 4, the same thing happened to Kokrak. His putter went cold and lost nearly 4 strokes. He’s usually a decent putter, so I’d like to see him bounce back here.