Thanksgiving Bottom of the Barrel NFL DFS Breakdown
Bottom of the Barrel Thanksgiving edition
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie
Happy Thanksgiving! I could drone on and on about being grateful for all that I have. Or how great this is to be here with all of you. However, I try to express that daily. Although, more than ever, we do need to take stock of what is most important to us. Do all those things today, in person, with family and friends.
The reason I have gathered you all here today is to talk football! More importantly, daily fantasy football! I am aware not too many people think the same way I do when it comes to DFS. Not saying I am the best to ever do it. I am just talking about the passion and excitement of it all. On Thanksgiving, there are little to no responsibilities. We are allowed, expected to, do the least amount of work possible!
Today the possibilities are endless! Food combos, conversations with family, and as many DFS lines as we can enter! Today is a day of rest and a day to show thanks. I cannot stress how thankful I am for you! Before we get into the article just know that anything goes. Anything can happen with this slate of games! Do not overthink it! Build until your heart’s content!
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Derek Carr LV @ DAL(10th)(FD-$7,400)(DK-$5,900)(Y!-$29)
As it stands, right now, the Dallas Cowboys will be stacked and bet upon in every single way possible! Four-man stacks, parlays, and the over/under. Which makes me want to do the exact opposite! I absolutely love the idea of taking Vegas +7.5 and using Derek Carr in multi-entry GPP contests today. I have Carr around 28-30 completions, 290ish passing yards, and accountable for several touchdowns this afternoon.
Andy Dalton CHI @ DET(13th)(FD-$7,200)(DK-$5,500)(Y!-$21)
Ah yes, Thanksgiving football at 12:30p EST showcasing Andy Dalton and Jared Goff. What I love about this one is the fact that it’s the only game on! Not forced to watch per se, but you get the gist of it! I believe we can count on Andy to complete around 20 passes for 220 yards and at least one touchdown pass.
Trevor Siemian NO v BUF(2nd)(FD-$7,000)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$22)
The New Orleans Saints are in bad shape today as they host the Bills. Their stud running back, Alvin Kamara, is inactive this afternoon. Recently acquired RB, Mark Ingram II, is also on the shelf. I also believe that the Bills are pissed. They were blown out in Week 11 as Jonathan Taylor embarrassed them on his way to scoring five touchdowns. The game script I have in my head is one of Buffalo winning big. Meaning the Saints just might get creative starting with Siemian.
Jared Goff DET v CHI(15th)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,100)(Y!-$21)
Pains me to mention Goff here being a Lions fan and all. However, I am a Lions fan and all!
Taysom Hill BUF @ NO(23rd)(FD-$7,000)(DK-$4,800)(Y!-$20)
As the Bills start to establish dominance early in this one, I would not be shocked to see Sean Payton manufacture plays for Taysom. Direct snaps, out wide, and even a carry or two. Given his price tag and the astronomical projected ownership of Josh Allen pivot to Taysom in the biggest of GPP’s today!
Mitchell Trubisky BUF @ NO(23rd)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$20)
As I was putting my notes together, I had a wild idea. Bottom of the Barrel has always been about taking risks and thinking outside the box. Case in point, Mitch Trubisky. I firmly believe we see Mitch under center late in this game. Maybe for a series or two, maybe the entire 4th quarter? However, you slice it I will be building at least one GPP with Trubisky as my QB. It’s Thanksgiving! Let’s live a little!
Tony Pollard DAL v LV(27th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,600)(Y!-$17)
Thanksgiving Day in Dallas is always good TV! Zeke Elliott will get the lion’s share of touches but as we’ve seen, OC Kellen Moore has had no issue mixing Tony Pollard. I have Tony for a healthy 10 rushes along with 2-3 receptions. Do we see Pollard jump in the Salvation Army red kettle today?
Kenyan Drake LV @ DAL(5th)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$4,600)(Y!-$14)
Kenyan is a great secondary piece today in our DFS lines. Will he out-touch Josh Jacobs? Absolutely not but who’s to say he doesn’t find the endzone multiple times on his way to winning the ‘turkey leg award’ after it’s all over.
Devin Singletary BUF @ NO(2nd)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$12)
As you can see the match-up in New Orleans from a DvP perspective is not good. I do not care! It’s time to start suspending belief, especially on Thanksgiving! I’m projecting 5-6 carries for 35-40 yards along with 2-3 receptions for an additional 20 yards. Today Devin is like the cranberry sauce on the table. It’s there, folks like it but they want to fill up on the other dishes first.
Zack Moss BUF @ NO(2nd)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$13)
I will be completely honest with you here. The Bills should win this one with ease, but I cannot get a read on Moss and how Buffalo intends to use him. Moss is like the frozen shrimp ring your uncle brings to dinner last minute. Too frozen to eat with the other appetizers and by the time dinner is ready you toss it aside. Only to revisit and dig in after dinner, clutch!
Jamaal Williams DET v CHI(18th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$14)
While we would all enjoy Swift seeing 30+ touches I just don’t think that’s reasonable today. As Jamaal gets up to speed after missing a few games the targets and touches will be there. I’m projecting 10+ carries to go with several targets in the passing game.
Tony Jones Jr. NO v BUF(9th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,000)(Y!-$10)
Don’t look now but I believe Tony Jones Jr. will be the starting running back tonight against the Bills. For whatever it’s worth that hopeful kind of work mixed in with his lowly price tag makes Tony a fantastic plug and play.
Khalil Herbert CHI @ DET(30th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$17)
With David Montgomery back and carrying most of the backfield touches it has relegated rookie Khalil Herbert back to the bench. However, this afternoon I can see the Bears using every trick in the book. Opening that sucker up wide as they start to move on from head coach Matt Nagy.
Jermar Jefferson DET v CHI(18th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,100)(Y!-$12)
Big time to reach here but it’s Thanksgiving and only three games. Let’s say Jamaal aggravates his hamstring early on. Would Jermar see a little work?
Cedrick Wilson DAL v LV(6th)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$3,500)(Y!-$14)
Amari Cooper is inactive on the COVID-IR. Stud CeeDee Lamb is a true GTD as he clears the concussion protocol. Most folks I know have already pivoted to Michael Gallup. Fair enough but if we dig deeper, I like Cedrick Wilson just a tad more! Given the price tag and projected ownership percentages could be just the edge we need!
Cole Beasley BUF @ NO(26th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$17)
Josh Allen should attempt around 40 passes tonight. They must go somewhere! Given the slate size and projected 6-7 targets Cole has a safe floor.
Tre’Quan Smith NO V BUF(1st)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$4,400)(Y!-$11)
Probably not wise of me to tell you, again, how I cannot get a feel for this game with the Saints offense. While I do see Tre’Quan getting several shots early in this one I also like his prospects as the game unfolds into the second half.
Emmanual Sanders BUF @ NO(26th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$4,800)(Y!-$16)
Much like Cole Beasley, Manny Sanders should see handful of targets. Plenty of receptions and yards to go around for the Bills in this one.
Marquise Goodwin CHI @ DET(12th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$3,800)(Y!-$11)
As this article was being published Allen Robinson is likely to miss a second straight game. Meaning, Goodwin should serve as the Bears WR2 behind Darnell Mooney. Who is excited to stack Andy Dalton with Goodwin this afternoon?
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET v CHI(27th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,200)(Y!-$12)
Amon-Ra has seen no fewer than four targets going all the way back to Week 4. His highest was 8 in both Week 4 and 5. His fewest was last week with 4. I believe St. Brown is another safe floor type play this afternoon. He also has a little bit of touchdown upside here!
Deonte Harris NO v BUF(1st)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$3,700)(Y!-$10)
Maybe I’m crazy but I love Harris to lead the Saints in targets and yardage in this one! Granted he did lay an egg last week against Philly and the Bills are allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Which makes my claims outlandish but that’s the idea here? Take the risk with Harris, I am!
Bryan Edwards LV @ DAL(18th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$3,900)(Y!-$10)
The secret is out! I think the Raiders beat the Cowboys in Dallas today. If they have any shot, it’ll be on the strength of Derek Carr’s arm. I have Edwards at a reasonable 5 targets, 4 receptions, and around 50 yards. If he finds the endzone then it’s all gravy!
Gabriel Davis BUF @ NO(26th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,600)(Y!-$12)
Not kidding, but I cannot stop thinking about Gabe Davis catching a long touchdown in this one.
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Cole Kmet CHI @ DET(10th)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$3,700)(Y!-$12)
Aside from Darren Waller today the tight end spot is grim today! With Andy Dalton as the starter, I think it’s only right we assume Cole is used as a safety blanket in this one. Against a very beatable Detroit defense.
Juwan Johnson NO v BUF(6th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$2,600)(Y!-$10)
We have all heard of RBBC, running back by committee, but has anyone ever mentioned TEBC? A tight end by committee? Well, it applies here with the Saints. Adam Trautman was just placed on the IR and New Orleans is hurting for playmakers.
Jimmy Graham CHI @ DET(10th)(FD-$4,400)(DK-$2,800)(Y!-$10)
Jimmy is about score multiple times today, isn’t he? Good, I’m not the only one who feels it.
Foster Moreau LV @ DAL(24th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$2,900)(Y!-$11)
Since Waller has been healthy and active Foster has seen a decline in offensive snaps. Rightfully so given the star power of Darren. However, as I stated in the opening portion of the article, Thanksgiving is time to throw out all the rules. Anything goes and anything can happen!
Nick Vannett NO v BUF(6th)(FD-$4,200)(DK-$2,500)(Y!-$10)
A tight end by committee, amirite?
That it is! Bottom of the Barrel for Thanksgiving 2021!
That is, it! Did I miss someone? Any questions or comments?
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