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The American Express DFS Picks 2023

The American Express DFS Picks

The PGA Tour heads back to the mainland! Settle in for The American Express DFS Picks. As you’re doing your research, you’ll want to pay special attention this week to Strokes Gained in putting and around the green, plus you’ll want players who are able to get some distance off the tee.

I use the PGA Stats Model Tab within our PGA StudyHub. It allows you to weigh certain skills over others and create new rankings based on that week’s tournament. More about this later.

My goal isn’t to build your lineup for you, it’s to guide you by using my experience as a sports bettor and the membership tools available at Team Rise or Fall. With that being said… here are this week’s PGA DFS picks (after a word from our sponsor). 

We recently added Individual Sport Memberships to our offerings here at Rise or Fall. If you would like to subscribe to a PGA Monthly or PGA Weekly plan, you now have that option. 

Members have access to the PGA Study Hub, which I use heavily for my analysis here. My favorite feature is the PGA Stats Model Tab, which allows me to weight Strokes Gained and other stats by importance for that particular week and see new rankings.

All memberships come with Study Hub and Discord Access, however, only *Monthly ALL Access* plan comes with a $20 monthly credit to Fantasy Cruncher. 

The American Express DFS Picks

Patrick Cantlay

  • $10.1 DraftKings
  • $11.7 FanDuel

Cantlay leads the tour in greens in regulation and is fifth in strokes gained putting (so far this season). He ranks 2nd in my own weighted model created using the Team Rise or Fall PGA Stats Model Tab in the PGA StudyHub. Rostership is creeping up into the danger zone on Cantlay (10+% on DK and 18+% on FD). If you’re going to play Cantlay as one of your The American Express DFS Picks, make sure you’ve got some lesser rostered picks to help differentiate yourself from the pack.

Tony Finau

  • $10.2 DraftKings
  • $11.5 FanDuel

Finau ranks 15th overall in my model and 2nd in just his putting average (which is going to be really important this week). Rostership was at around 8% on DK and 10% on FD at the time of publication. They’ll close out a little higher, but I’m ok with that. There are enough favorites to go around this week, so I know it’s not going to be sky-high.

KH Lee

  • $8.3 DraftKings
  • $9.7 FanDuel

He shakes out 4th overall in my weighted model. Rostership is looking good at around 7-8% on both platforms. He’s hitting just over 300 yards off the tee and landing GIR 77% of the time. His putting is perfectly average, but that’s ok. I’d be worried if he fell below the average of 1.74 putts, but he’s right on the button. I feel totally comfortable playing KH Lee this week.

Taylor Montgomery

  • $8.9 DraftKings
  • $10.2 FanDuel

Montgomery ranks 18th in my weighted model, struggling most with his approach, but I’m not weighing approach this week. He’s a fantastic putter, which I am weighing fairly heavily, and he’s one of the best in the field ATG (around the green), both in scrambling and from the sand.

Oh and he also drives an average of 307 off the tee. I don’t know if I’m willing to pay up for him on FanDuel, but I’m looking at him very seriously for my DraftKings lineups. Rostership is in the safe zone of around 8% on both platforms. He could be a great pick to differentiate your lineup from others.

Thomas Detry

  • $7.6 DraftKings
  • $9.1 FanDuel

I really like how Detry pans out in my model this week! He’s ranking 6th overall (using distance, putting, ATG, and GIR). He’s a bomber off the tee and driving distance will absolutely come into play this week. He’s also one of the better putters in this field. Detry seems like a solid pick to me and if you’re playing DraftKings, he’s a monster value.

Dean Burmester

  • $7.4 DraftKings
  • $8.8 FanDuel

Dean Burmester is a great fit for this course! He’s another real bomber off the tee, averaging 309 yds and 72% GIR. Around the green, he’s fantastic. I’m slightly worried about his putting, as he’s looking a bit average in comparison to the rest of the field, but I’m not super worried about it. Looking at my weighted model, he ranks 2nd overall. I should probably also mention that his rostership is so very low at around 3% on both platforms. Gotta love that!

🏆 Hey Champ… Thanks so much for reading. If you have any questions, my DMs are open on Twitter @KellyInPhoenix. Don’t be a stranger, say “hello”!

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