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PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Honda Classic 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.

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Course Preview

Our final week of the Florida swing has approached us as we end the week at PGA National. This week we will have 140 players on the field with defending champion Sungjae Im. We will have less rough this week but still have trouble with 15 holes with water in play and the infamous Bear Trap. PGA National was originally designed by Tom & George Fazio in 1981 and renovated by Jack Nicklaus in 2002, 2014 & 2018.

PGA Nationa is 7100 yards; par 70 played on Bermuda greens. This is a course that if you’re able to stay at par, you’re actually winning. The easiest holes are the par 5’s, which will have a 30-45% birdie rate and a small 3% eagle rate. However, in contrast, 8 holes have a bogey rate of 18-30%.

PGA National is a course that has narrow fairways, 67 sand bunkers, and 15 holes with water in play. So it’s safe to say that this will be a wild weekend. Lastly, this year the tournament is three weeks later than usual, so the grounds staff will be using growth regulators on the greens to provide a consistent putting surface throughout the day per GCSAA.

 

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PGA DFS FanDuel Targets

  • Daniel Berger ($12,000) – Berger is the most expensive golfer on FD, but on DK, he’s also fascinating at only $10,800. On the Rise or Fall Important Stats – Berger is ranked 28th OTT, 36th on APP, and 38th T2G. He’s also popping off on the Study Hub – he’s gaining 3.9 strokes T2G, 2.2 OTT, 2,1 Putter, and 1.2 on APP while also gaining 1.37 total strokes on PGA National.
  • Doug Ghim ($9,800) – With a much weaker field this week, let’s not forget about our boy Doug Ghim. Now, he’s not a terrible pick, but we wouldn’t normally be playing an expensive Doug Ghim. The good news per the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Over the last 5 events, Ghim has gained 1.9 strokes T2G, 1.4 on APP, and half a stroke OTT. Ghim is also ranked 25th on APP and 29th T2G per the Important Stats model.

PGA DFS DraftKings Targets

  • Russell Henley ($9,800) – Last week, Russel didn’t have one of his best performances, as he lost 3 strokes on approach. The last time he lost that many strokes on approach was back at the Houston Open in October 2019. If we look at the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Russell has gained 1.4 strokes on approach in the last 5 events, followed by gaining 2.9 strokes on the approach in the last 10 events, and lastly gained 3.7 strokes on approach in the last 20 events. If you haven’t noticed by now, strokes gained on approach is fundamental this week and Russell is an excellent iron player.
  • Brendan Steele ($8,700) – I don’t know what Brendan did in the off-season, but he’s been nothing short of phenomenal. Over the last 5 events, he’s gained 2.8 strokes OTT, 2.7 strokes T2G, and 1.2 strokes ARG. He’s also been extremely consistent with no miss-cuts since the start of 2021.

PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets

  • Cameron Tringale (1.4X) – Besides the miss cut last week at The Players, Tringale has actually gone 8 events in a row without a missed cut. And what made him miss the cut last week was his putter, when he’s usually very good at putting (ranked 39th on the Tour). Over on the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Tringale has gained 3.2 strokes T2G, 2 strokes on APP, and 1.1 OTT.
  • Chris Kirk (1.4X) – Kirk is another strong iron player who is fantastic off the tee. On our Important Stats Ranking model, Kirk is ranked 21st T2G and 35th on APP. He’s also gained 0.38 total strokes at PGA National.

PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Honda Classic on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraftPGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content

Study Hub

Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a huge Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.

Course Correlation Model

One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.

Important Rankings

Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.

Cash, GPP, Core Picks

On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.

Showdown Content

This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. Those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.

Consistency vs. Trends

This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last 4 events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.

Putting Data

This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.Study Hub DFS Projections

Photo by Richard Stott on Unsplash

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