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PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Players 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

We have an exciting week of PGA DFS with superb-looking slates on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. This PGA DFS Picks Preview will highlight the course and provide information on the statistics you’ll need to focus on while using our PGA DFS Study Hub. Make sure to check out the PGA DFS Projections, Ownerships, and Ratings before you start to put together your lineups for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. They’re strong and allow you to focus on the PGA Core, Picks, and Content while building DFS Lineups.

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Course Preview

The Players, TPC Sawgrass, last year we all experienced when the golf world shut down due to COVID. And now they re-open their doors, and the question that lies – will Hideki Matsuyama resume what he started last year in round 1 when he went 9 under? It was truly wonderful. This week we will have 154 golfers in the field with defending champion Rory McIlroy.

TPC Sawgrass is 7200 yards, par 72 played on Bermuda greens, and was designed by Pete Dye. It’s important to note here that we have 17 holes with water in play and 88 sand bunkers’, so accuracy will be a huge factor this week.

With that being said, the par 5’s are the easiest on the course for birdie opportunities. They have a 30-45% birdie rate, with the 16th hole having a 4% chance in eagles. However, not all is dandy in TPC Sawgrass. 7 holes have a bogey 20-28% rate. Also, the cut line historically has been either +1 or worse. Besides all the obstacles you have to deal with (bunkers and water), you’ll want to look for golfers that keep it in the fairways. The rough will be nearly 3 inches deep.

 

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PGA DFS FanDuel Targets

  • Patrick Cantlay ($11,100) – I much prefer Cantlay on DK with the soft pricing, but you can play Cantlay anywhere. I absolutely love consistent golfers. Cantlay has had two miss cuts in the last two years. Making Cantlay a safe cash option. On the Rise or Fall Study Hub – Cantlay has gained 6.4 strokes T2G, 2.5 ARG, 2.2 OTT, and 1.7 ARG in the last 5 events. It’s also worth noting in that timeframe; he’s had three top 20 finishes and two top 5 finishes.
  • Adam Scott ($9,700) – On the Rise or Fall Study Hub, Scott plays extremely well in TPC Sawgrass. He’s placed 12th, 11th, 6th, and 12th. And on the Strokes Gained Database, he’s gained 2 total strokes.

PGA DFS DraftKings Targets

  • Rory McIlroy ($10,600) – Rory is the most interesting golfer in the 10k range, and it’s all due to him being consistent. Which makes him a viable cash option. Over on the Rise or Fall Study Hub – yes, he missed the cut at Genesis, but since then, you have to go all the way back to July 2019 when he missed the cut at The Open. Best of all, Rory gains strokes on this surface, and the Strokes Gained Database – Rory has gained 1.64 strokes.
  • Justin Thomas ($9,900) – 9.9k for JT? What a wild pricing. Justin Thomas is usually never this cheap so take advantage! He usually provides 7x his value at this range. I know he didn’t perform his greatest at WGC WorkDay, losing 5.9 strokes OTT, but the last time he performed that bad was back in 2014. Over on the Rise or Fall Strokes Gained Database – JT is gaining 1.77 total strokes.

PGA DFS SuperDraft Targets

  • Jason Kokrak (1.35X) – Over the last 2 events, Kokrak has gained a total of 15 strokes T2G, 7 OTT, 5 ARG, and 3 on APP. Kokrak is also ranked 28th on the Important Stats Ranking page.
  • Sam Burns (1.35X) – Last week, many people were “burned” with Sam (see what I did there), so I believe many are going to steer away. But over on the Rise or Fall – Important Stats, Burns is ranked 33rd on Approach and 21st Off The Tee.

PGA DFS: Picks Preview for The Players 2021 on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft

PGA DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft Rise or Fall Content

Study Hub

Each week our wizard CeeGee provides a huge Study Hub. What’s a Study Hub? A Study Hub is where you’ll find every player playing in the upcoming event. You’ll be able to see a player’s recent form, long-term form, course history, strokes gained off the tee, approach, around the green, putter, tee to green, total strokes gained, bogey avoidance, sand saves, and birdie rate.

Course Correlation Model

One of our most important models is our CC Model. The CC Model allows you to see what courses fit best compared to the actual course. I try to stay anywhere from 93% to 80% in similarity. Once you access our sheets, you’ll notice from left to right all the courses similar to The Genesis Invitational and how each player has an individual rank and, lastly, a final rank. In this sheet, you’ll be able to identify which player is suited best for the course based on course similarity.

Important Rankings

Every week I post an article on Mondays (what you’re currently reading), giving you a course preview on what’s in store for the week. I also provide the top five most important stats that you should be using. That’s when this model comes into play. Each important stat is based on the PGA Tour Rankings. Lastly, I provide a final ranking making it easy on who is highly ranked.

Cash, GPP, Core Picks

On Wednesday nights, the Study Hub is updated once more, and it’s with my personal picks. All categorized on which player I like and in what format. Cash/GPP are self-explanatory, while my core picks are my lock plays. Also, my Risers are my most confident picks. So there’s a difference between a regular GPP play and a Riser/GPP play.

Showdown Content

This sheet contains picks, stats, building blocks, and weather. I update this sheet Friday-Sunday and provide you all the stats I can get my hands on. Those who don’t have enough time and aren’t a data junkie like myself, then the picks/building blocks will guide you to your cash or GPP builds.

Consistency vs. Trends

This model consists of Consistency/Baseline vs. Trend. The Consistency is measured over the last 12 months on a player’s performance. Look at it as a player average in baseball; .250 avg. And a Trend is how the player has been performing in the last 16 rounds or the last 4 events. This could be seen as if a player has been “hot” or “cold.” And in theory, this helps us determine who is performing well vs. underperforming. Every week I’ll be updating this model based on my weeklong picks.

Putting Data

This model is to guide you on how each player performs on a specific surface. So, one week we could have Poa stats, and the other week Bermuda greens. These strokes are currently being measured from the start of the 2020 season to the present.

Photo by Don Stouder on Unsplash

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