Thursday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 10-1
Let’s dive into my Thursday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. We have a showdown slate to kick off Week 4. Let’s get into it!
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Denver Broncos @ New York Jets O/U 41 NYJ -1
Scenario 1: Game Stays Close
In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. Let’s face it, the quarterbacks in this game are Sam Darnold and Brett Rypien. It’s not great. The defensive battle is more likely than it ever has been this season in this game. In this scenario, For the Broncos side, I’m focusing on Brett Rypien, Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant, and Jerry Jeudy. On the Jets side, I’m focusing on Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Frank Gore, Chris Herndon, and Braxton Berrios. I would toss in the kicker of the team that you think wins as well.
For the shootout, think of it as a game of ping pong. Broncos score, Jets score, Broncos score, etc. For roster construction, I’d prefer a 3-3 build on DraftKings and a 3-2 build on FanDuel. Focus on players that you think have a chance to score multiple touchdowns. For the Broncos side, I’m targeting Brett Rypien, Melvin Gordon, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, and Jerry Jeudy. For the Jets side, I’m targeting Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Frank Gore, Kalen Ballage, Chris Herndon, and Braxton Berrios. For DraftKings, I want a Running Back, Wide Reciever in the Captain spot. For FanDuel, I want a Quarterback or Running Back in the MVP spot.
Scenario 2: Broncos Dominate
In this scenario, we’re looking at a potential final score in the 30-3 range in favor of the Broncos. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Jet at most. I’d lean towards Jamison Crowder assuming he plays. If Crowder is out, I’d go with Braxton Berrios. For the Broncos side, I’m targeting Brett Rypien, Melvin Gordon, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, and Jerry Jeudy. My top plays for this scenario are Noah Fant and Melvin Gordon. Fant has the ability to create big plays and Gordon will get as many touches as he can handle with a large lead. Lock in the Broncos Defense and Brandon McManus for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and kicking opportunities for McManus. For Captian on DraftKings, I’d favor Noah Fant or Jerry Jeudy. For MVP on FanDuel, I’d roll with Melvin Gordon.
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Scenario 3: Jets Dominate
In this scenario, the Jets are going to route Denver to the tune of a final score of around 30-3. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Bronco at most. I’d lean towards Noah Fant due to his high volume of targets and big-play potential. If the Jets dominate, they’ll be getting big plays in the passing game. I’m targeting Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Frank Gore, Chris Herndon, and Braxton Berrios on the Jets side. I’m theorizing that Darnold will throw multiple touchdowns and Frank Gore will get carries to seal the win. Lock in Sam Ficken and the Jets Defense in this scenario as you would the Broncos’ side in scenario 2. I prefer Jamison Crowder and Braxton Berrios at the Captain spot on DraftKings. I’ll have Sam Darnold or Frank Gore at the MVP spot on FanDuel.
FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. For groups, focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Jamison Crowder with Sam Darnold and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Jets will go pass-heavy and Darnold will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.
See ya in discord,
TMay
