Thursday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 10-29
Let’s dive into my Thursday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers O/U 51.5 CAR -2.5
Scenario 1: Game Stays Close
In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. For the Carolina side, I’m focusing on Teddy Bridgewater, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Mike Davis. For the Atlanta side, I’m focusing on Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Todd Gurley. I would toss in the kicker of the team that you think wins as well.
For the shootout, think of it as a game of ping pong. Panthers score, Falcons score, Panthers score, etc. For roster construction, I’d prefer a 4-2 build on DraftKings and a 3-2 build on FanDuel. Focus on players that you think have a chance to score multiple touchdowns. For the Carolina side, I’m focusing on Teddy Bridgewater, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, and Mike Davis. In 150 max, I would have shares of Ian Thomas as well. For the Atlanta side, I’m focusing on Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, and Todd Gurley. In 150 max, I would have a few shares of Brian Hill. For DraftKings, I want a Running Back or Wide Receiver in the Captain spot. For FanDuel, I want a Quarterback or Running Back in the MVP spot.
Scenario 2: Panthers Dominate
In this scenario, we’re looking at a potential final score in the 30-14 range in favor of the Panthers. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Falcon at most. I’d lean towards Julio Jones or Calvin Ridley due to their 19% target shares via the Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. I’m targeting Teddy Bridgewater, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, and Mike Davis for this scenario. My top plays are Teddy Bridgewater and Robby Anderson. Robinson has a market share of 29% (via NFL Study Hub) and Atlanta is giving up 27 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Lock in the Panthers Defense and Joey Slye for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and kicking opportunities for Slye. For Captian on DraftKings, I’d favor Robby Anderson or D.J. Moore. For MVP on FanDuel, I’d roll with Teddy Bridgewater.
Scenario 3: Falcons Dominate
In this scenario, the Falcons are going to route the Panthers to the tune of a final score of around 30-14. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Panther at most. I’d lean towards Roby Anderson because of his massive market share. I’m targeting Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, and Todd Gurley for this scenario. My top plays are Todd Gurley and Julio Jones. Carolina is giving up 23.89 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (via NFL Study Hub) and Julio Jones has the highest ceiling on the slate. Lock in the Falcons Defense and Younghoe Koo for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and kicking opportunities for Koo. For Captian on DraftKings, I’d favor Julio Jones and Todd Gurley. For MVP on FanDuel, I’d roll with Todd Gurley.
FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests. Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain Robby Anderson with Teddy Bridgewater and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Panthers will go pass-heavy and Bridgewater will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.
See ya in discord,