Thursday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 11-12
Let’s dive into my Thursday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans O/U 48.5 IND -1
Scenario 1: Game Stays Close
In this scenario, there are two outcomes we are trying to cover; a defensive battle and a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. This scenario is not out of the question with a close spread and a game total under 50.
For the Tennessee side, I’m focusing on Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Anthony Firkser. With Adam Humphries inactive, we should see a bump in market share for Firkser and Davis. If you think Tennessee wins, regardless of the scenario, I would lock Derrick Henry into any cash, single entry, or 3 max lineups. The Colts have been stout on defense this season but, they do allow over 20 points per game to opposing wide receivers. This presents an opportunity for A.J. Brown and Corey Davis to have great days.
If this game is a defensive battle, I would expect Derrick Henry to get his normal run of around 20 carries. I would roster only 1 of Brown and Davis and prioritize Brown as he has the higher ceiling. Lock in the Tennessee defense for this scenario.
For a shootout, I’d decrease my shares of Henry and increase my shares of the pass catchers. Toss in Kalif Raymond as a large GPP dart throw.
For the Indianapolis side, I’m focusing on Phillip Rivers, Johnathan Taylor, Jordan Wilkins, Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, and Trey Burton. This offense is a mess. At running back, I prefer Wilkins because he is cheaper but, Taylor is the better player and Trey Burton has been getting goal line carries. The Colts receivers are cheap on both sites and provide salary relief if you want the studs from Tennessee. Lock in Colts defense or Rodrigo Blankenship for a defensive battle.
News to Watch– T.Y. Hilton should be active for this game but, in the event that he is out, I would give Michael Pittman a bump and he would become a priority from the Colts’ side.
For. shootout, the Colts will dominate through the air. Per the NFL Study Hub, Tennessee is allowing 275 passing yards per game and 28 points to opposing wide receivers. I would prioritize Colts pass catchers and add Nyheim Hines to my pool.
For a shootout, lock in the kicker of the team you predict wins the game and fade both defenses.
Scenario 2: Colts Dominate
As I just referenced, if the Colts succeed, it’ll be through the air. Tennessee is only allowing 119 yards per game on the ground and Frank Reich has proven that he doesn’t trust any of the running backs to be a workhorse. For the passing game, I would prioritize T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, and Trey Burton in stacks with Phillip Rivers. I prefer wide receiver at CPT on DraftKings and Rivers at MVP on FanDuel. I would limit my exposure to one Colts running back per lineup. You’re rolling the dice with all three of the running backs and hoping touchdown variance goes tour way.
Lock in Colts defense and Rodrigo Blankenship for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and more kicking opportunities for Blankenship.
From the Tennessee side, I would prioritize A.J. Brown or Corey Davis. If the Colts dominate, Derrick Henry will be game scripted out of this game and Ryan Tannehill will be forced to throw the ball over 30 times.
Scenario 3: Titans Dominate
If the Titans dominate, their offense will be cooking on all cylinders. We have seen a stack of Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown do very well this season. That being said, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Anthony Firkser are definitely in play for this scenario. We’re already predicting that Tennessee is going to score four to five touchdowns, we just have to predict where they will come from. Per the NFL Study Hub, A.J. Brown and Corey Davis account for 25% and 28% of the team’s market shares and we know that Derrick Henry will see his 20 carries in a positive game script. A stack of Ryan Tannehill with Derrick Henry and with Corey Davis or A.J. Brown would be my preferred stack for this scenario.
Lock in Titans defense and Stephen Gostkowski for this scenario. More sack opportunities for the defense and more kicking opportunities for Gostkowski.
For the Colts side, I would prefer T.Y. Hilton or Michael Pittman. We’ve established Tennessee struggles against wide receivers and they have the best chance to make a big play in the vertical passing game.
FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.
Focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain T.Y. Hilton with Phillip Rivers and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Colts will go pass-heavy and Rivers will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.
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