Thursday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 9-24
Let’s dive into my Thursday Night Football GPP picks for the main slate on DraftKings and Fanduel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. We have a showdown slate to kick off Week 3. Let’s get into it!
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Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 48.5 JAC -3
Scenario 1: The Game Stays Close:
In this scenario, there are 2 likely outcomes; a defensive battle or a shootout. For the defensive battle, I would roster the defense of the team you think will win the game. It is likely that both quarterbacks would struggle in this scenario. I would favor the Jacksonville Defense in this scenario due to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s gunslinger tendencies. It’s more likely that Fitzpatrick throws 3 or 4 interceptions than Minshew. I would go heavy on the team that you think wins the game in this scenario. We’re probably looking at a final score of 10-6 in this scenario. I would focus on the players that will be involved the most since touchdowns would be limited. For the Jacksonville side, I’ll focus on Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, and Laviska Shenault Jr. For the Miami side, I’ll focus on Ryan Fitzpatrick, Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, and Myles Gaskin. Lastly, I would have the kicker of the team you think will win.
For the shootout, think of it as a game of ping pong; Miami scores, Jacksonville scores, Miami scores, etc. This is a more likely scenario because both of these defenses rank in the bottom 6 in terms of defensive efficiency. For roster construction, I’d prefer a 3-3 build on DraftKings and a 3-2 build on FanDuel. In this scenario, I would focus on the players that have a higher probability of scoring multiple touchdowns. For Jacksonville, I’m targeting Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark, and James Robinson. For Miami, I’m targeting Ryan Fitzpatrick, Devante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Myles Gaskin. For DraftKings, I want a Running Back or Wide Reciever in the Captain spot. For FanDuel, I want a Quarterback or Running Back in the MVP spot.
Scenario 2: Jacksonville Dominates
In this scenario, we’re looking at a potential final score in the 30-3 range in favor of the Jags. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Dolphin at most. Most likely a pass-catcher because Fitzpatrick will have to throw over 30 passes due to the negative game script. For the Jacksonville side, I’ll focus on Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole, and Laviska Shenault Jr. Key in on who you think will expose the Dolphins defense. I’m leaning more towards the pass catchers because Miami has gotten exposed in the secondary thus far. It’s certainly possible that we see a ceiling game from James Robinson. I would not be surprised if we see Robinson get 25 carries for 150 yards and 2-3 touchdowns in this scenario. Lock in Brandon Wright for this scenario. When the Jags score, he scores. Lock in the Jacksonville Defense as well. More passing attempts for Fitzpatrick gives the Jags defense more opportunities for sacks and turnovers.
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Scenario 3: Miami Dominates
In this scenario, Miami is going to route Jacksonville to the tune of a final score of around 30-3. For roster construction, I would roster 1 Jaguar at most. For the Jacksonville side, I would target D.J. Chark or Keelan Cole in hopes that they score a long touchdown in garbage time. For the Miami side, I’ll focus on Ryan Fitzpatrick, Devante Parker, Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, and Myles Gaskin. In this scenario, Fitzmagic is going to be back in full force. One of Devante Parker, Preston Williams, or Mike Gesicki could score 2-3 touchdowns. In my opinion, the most likely multiple-touchdown threat is Devante Parker. I’m targeting Wide Reciever in the Captain spot on DraftKings and FitzPatrick in the MVP spot on Fanduel in this scenario. Jacksonville’s defense currently ranks 31st against the pass and 10th against the run in terms of defensive efficiency. If this scenario occurs, it’s through the air. Just like scenario 2, lock in the Miami Defense and Jason Sanders.
FantasyCruncher Limits and Groups
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play. For groups, focus on the correlation between the Captain/MVP and the remaining players. For example, I’m pairing Captain D.J. Chark with Gardner Minshew and another pass catcher. This theorizes that the Jags will go pass-heavy and Minshew will throw for multiple touchdowns. It is important in groups to keep the rotational guys out of your groups. This will allow you to have more control over your lineups.
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TMay
