Let’s dive into my Thursday Night Football Showdown GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it!
For this scenario, we want to theorize that there is either a defensive battle or a shootout. Given the high total, it is more likely that this game is a shootout than a defensive battle.
For the Los Angeles side, there are some moving parts. It appears that Mike Williams is out and Keenan Allen is a game-time decision. Assuming Allen is OUT, I’m focusing on Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry, and Tyron Johnson. The Chargers pass at a high volume. I would expect Ekeler and Henry to get the bulk of the targets.
If Allen is in, he is a priority target.
For a shootout, I’m mixing in Jalen Guyton. Guyton is a big play threat and he is cheap.
For the Las Vegas side, I’m focusing on Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller. No surprise here as these three dominate the market share in this offense. Waller has seen a 26% target share over the last 4 weeks, per NFL Study Hub, proving that he is Carr’s favorite target.
For a shootout, I’m mixing in Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, and Nelson Agholor. Ruggs and Agholor have more big play upside than Renfrow so I would prefer them.
Both defenses and kickers are in play for this scenario.
The way I see this scenario playing out is that Los Angeles gets a dominant performance from Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler finds the end zone multiple times. In my opinion, it is more likely that Ekeler has a ceiling day than Guyton, Henry, or Johnson.
Assuming Allen is out, I will have the most exposure to Herbert and Ekeler while mixing in the other targets. Henry offers a decent floor that makes him stand out in cash games to me.
I would consider Michael Badgley and the Chargers defense for this scenario. If Carr fails, he is most likely turning the ball over multiple times. More points equal more kicking opportunities for Badgley.
For the Las Vegas side, I would prefer Darren Waller due to the massive target share I referred to earlier.
If Las Vegas dominates, in my opinion, it will be due to the rushing attack setting the tone. In this scenario, we could see Josh Jacobs getting 20-25 carries and multiple scores. Per NFL Study Hub, the Chargers are only allowing 217 passing yards per game.
The priority targets are the same but, I am putting a higher emphasis on Jacobs as I referenced.
Las Vegas defense and Daniel Carlson are firmly in play here. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a special teams touchdown from Vegas. The Chargers special teams unit has been a mess all year.
For the Los Angeles side, I would prefer Autin Ekeler. He has one of the highest ceilings per NFL Study Hub Range of Outcomes and could rack up PPR points due to a high volume of targets.
For limits, I want at most 1 defense and at most 1 kicker. I don’t envision a scenario where rostering multiples of those positions in the same lineup is an optimal play.
FantasyCruncher groups allow you to have multiple folders of groups. I’d recommend having a folder for each scenario that I described above and differentiating those groups throughout your 20 or 150 max contests.
See ya in discord,
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