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Top DraftKings PGA DFS Picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022

Draftkings PGA DFS Picks

Top DraftKings PGA DFS Picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022

Bang! Last week’s Honda Classic was the best event yet for us at Team Rise or Fall. I didn’t even have the champion, Sepp Straka in my player pool. I didn’t need him. Behind top-five finishes from my most-rostered golfers, Daniel Berger and Shane Lowry, over half of my lineups cashed and four profited 5x or better. My NorCal neighbor, Kurt Kitayama also showed why I touted him earlier in his rookie season. The future is so bright that we’re going to need shades.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational at legendary Bay Hill is the second leg of the Florida Swing. Bay Hill rewards the bombers at nearly 7,500 yards with deep Bermuda rough. Bomb-and-Gouge is a real strategy here, hence the former champion being Bryson DeChambeau. Bryson is still recovering from his injury and not in the field this week, so we will preen through a very strong 120-golfer invitational field. DraftKings has depressed salaries this week as well, giving a distinct advantage to those with the sharpest player pools. You can access the PGA Study Hub and more at Team Rise or Fall.

Let’s tee off! Strokes gained from tee to green is a combined metric of strokes gained off the tee, on approach, and around the green. When you overlap SG: T2G with putting stats on Bermuda greens, the player pool this week that I will work with will be much tighter and concise.

Stick It Close: Studs to Target

Rory McIlroy (DK: $11,100; FD: $11,900; Y!: $48)

I should never need to give anyone a hard sell on Rors. McIlroy is still one of the very best golfers on the planet, especially off the tee. Throw in his extraordinary success putting on Bermuda greens and Bay Hill could very well bow to the Northern Irishman yet again this week. He has finished in the top-10 of this tournament five years in a row, including his victory in 2018. His game was modeled after Tiger Woods, after all. Rory McIlroy is the type of player who has a chance to hoist the trophy here every year, like Tiger did eight times.

Sam Burns (DK: $8,800; FD: $10,700; Y!: $42)

I actually have developed an affinity for four or five golfers in this salary range. The two highlighted here are the guys with a lower projected roster percentage. The Rise or Fall team makes a ton of hay off leverage, and that’s the mission for this tournament especially. Burns is 13th on the PGA Tour in SG: T2G, which again is an essential stat for attacking Bay Hill. Even though Burns hasn’t been the greatest putter overall, he sports some of the very best numbers in this field on Bermuda greens.

A comparable player who is much more popular this week is Matthew Fitzpatrick. Fitz will still be in the player pool at 5th on Tour in SG: T2G (and an elite putter), but is expected to double Burns’ roster percentage. Just be careful with your exposure to chalky players when entering 20+ max entry tournaments.

Marc Leishman (DK: $9,100; FD: $11,000; Y!: $33)

The Aussie Leishman is my secret weapon this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Much like Shane Lowry last week, Leishman has the set of skills necessary to make a run at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. He is a wonderful ball striker, especially off the tee, and sports very strong putting metrics on Bermuda greens. It would not surprise me in the slightest to see Leishman under 10% rostered this week, making him a nice leverage pivot off comparable player, Will Zalatoris. Zalatoris is a fine play and will be in my pool, but I will temper my exposure to his chalk this week (like with Fitzpatrick).

Top DraftKings PGA DFS Picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2022

PGA Study Hub Projections

No Gimme: Tap-In Values

Maverick McNealy (DK: $7,800; FD: $9,700; Y!: $31)

It’s no secret that Mav is one of my favorite golfers (and names) on the PGA Tour. His game is solid all around, but especially on a course as challenging as Bay Hill. The players will be tested to find fairways with their drivers, or else be forced to hack out of three-inch rough or hit long irons into speedy, undulating greens. McNealy is 23rd on the Tour in strokes gained off the tee and is among the longest hitters in this field. When you add in his putting prowess, it seems incredibly silly that he’s under $8k on DraftKings this week.

Luke List (DK: $7,500; FD: $9,200; Y!: $32)

Another name on the list (chuckles) is Luke List. You wouldn’t figure that the guy who is third in this entire 120-man, invite-only field in SG: T2G is all the way down at $7,500 on DraftKings. Even more completely insane is that he will likely also be under 10% rostered. Like with Sam Burns, List isn’t the most amazing putter, but fares much better on Bermuda than with other surfaces. He has frequented the Rise or Fall player pools all season, with no reason at all to fade at Bay Hill this week.

Cameron Young (DK: $7,500; FD: $9,100; Y!: $30)

Sometimes, chalky players are still fruitful to roster. Cameron Young is making his first career appearance at Bay Hill and is coming in on a tear. It appears that his recent success and wonderfully-low salary will push his roster percentage into the 15% range. With the way Young is bombing the ball and draining putts lately, he fits this track like a glove. Young is second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee and 36th in strokes gained putting. I foresee his value as a blessing for roster construction, with winning upside to boot.

I will be with you for an entire PGA Tour season of DFS picks. I hope you join me in victory throughout 2022 and beyond. I promise to be a better DFS golfer than an actual golfer. You can find all of my musings on Twitter. Good luck and hit ’em straight!